Welcome to Upset Watch
If you're new to Pickwatch, or have never read Upset Watch, here's what we do:
With over 35% of NFL games ending in an underdog outright win, it's important to know when upsets are most likely to occur, and which teams to pick.
Every Wednesday, we select a number of underdogs that have a statistically higher chance of winning than others. To do this, we use historical trends, such as the number of underdogs that historically win each week, and we then use a weighted ranking of each team's current 'true' performance to assess how well they are playing, and whether the matchup is favorable.
Why underdogs and not favorites?
Because underdog winners yield bigger profits from the greater odds you face, you don't need to win every pick you make. Our motto is that with Upset Watch, you make more profit from less picks.
In 2021, betting $100 on every underdog winner that we picked would have yielded you a profit of+$3,200 over the course of the season. This year, we have made a profit to this point of +$1,761
Contents (click to jump to section - Pro subscription required for picks):
About Weighted Stats
Our weighted stats in the header for each game are different to the 'raw' stats you can find on other websites.
Weighted stats indicate the performance of a team against the averages of their opponents. For example, if a team scores 30 points against a team that gives up 29 points on average, their weighted performance will be +1. If they score 30 points against a team that gives up 20 points on average, their performance is +10, because they scored 10 points more than that opponent normally allows.
Over the course of a season, we can see the balance of the weighted performance as a 'true' measure of a team's real caliber. A team that ranks highly in a category generally has a good performance in this statistic regardless of how strong their opponents are.
About the stats
We include 4 main categories of weighted stats for offense and defense. These cover scoring, passing, rushing, and pass protection. On defense, we replace pass protection with pass rush.
By placing the units side-by-side with the unit they are up against (eg: Pass protection vs Pass rush) you can not only see where a team is strongest, but also whether the opposing unit is likely to be strong or weak too.
We followed up our worst week of 2022 with our second best return, landing +$270 if you bet $100 on each of our 5 underdog winners and 1 underdog cover, going 4-2 on those picks. The biggest winner was the Giants, and we should add that the Falcons lost on a silly fumble late on with a chance to tie or win the game, and the Cardinals we picked on the basis of Colt McCoy, not Trace McSorley playing. When McCoy got injured, it pretty much nixed our chances of success there, but the week as a whole was very profitable.
As a side note, I was interested in the fact that one of our bigger wins - the Giants - came when I overruled in a tied projection by our simulation algorithm. I'll be intervening where I think necessary, particularly where injuries are concerned in the late part of the season, and where there is an opportunity that goes against the stats.
Season Performance
Our wins in week 15 lifted us to a season-high in profit of +$1,761 after our first two-week losing streak of the year. That profit is made up of +$1,186 in our cover picks, which continue to be on the money, and our straight up winners, which are at +$575 on the season. We still have at least 1 underdog winner every week for the last 3 years, but if you're reading this, then you probably already knew that!
I get asked this question a lot, about the best way to use the information in Upset Watch/
I've transferred this section of Upset Watch to a separate article, as I attempt to make the weekly column easier to read, so if you want to see my tips for how to maximize profit alongside many thousands of other subscribers, check this link out.
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