Hello again! Here are my Divisional round picks. My Wild Card picks last week went 4-2, bringing the overall 2024 record to 199-79. That record is tied for the 14th highest among the more than 180 experts tracked by NFL Pickwatch. My picks with a confidence level of 6 or higher, which were 2-0 last week, have gone 31-4 since Week 13.

The playoff opener of the Texans at Chiefs will be available to all readers. The remaining picks will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

 

Houston at Kansas City

DeMeco Ryans did the right thing in playing his starters during much of the Week 18 game against Tennessee, because that solid performance got the terrible performance in the Week 17 blowout versus Baltimore out of the Texans minds. That allowed this club to stand up to the Chargers brand of bully ball and once they did this for a quarter and change, the game swung entirely in Houston’s direction.

The Texans will aim to keep their energy level just as high this week in the matchup at Arrowhead. The Chiefs defense allowed 100+ rushing yards in four of its last seven meaningful games, so there is a path for Joe Mixon to get going and to keep Houston’s spirits high in this difficult road environment.

The problem for Houston is that Andy Reid doesn’t use the bully ball approach (he once half-jokingly told John Clayton years ago that he would pass the ball on every down if he could). Kansas City can run the ball, as evidenced by the 124 rushing yards posted against the Texans in Week 16, but the Chiefs have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in six of the last ten meaningful games. Expect Reid to go after a Houston secondary that allowed 200+ net passing yards in seven of the Texans last nine contests.

Add that to the Chiefs being insanely good at protecting the ball (zero giveaways in Weeks 12-18), Patrick Mahomes playing at much higher level of late, the two weeks of rest and the game being in Kansas City and this is a Chiefs selection.

KC’s pick: Kansas City

Confidence level: 6

 

The remainder of KC's Divisional round picks are available exclusively to NFL Pickwatch Pro subscribers.