Hello again! Here are my Divisional round picks. My Wild Card picks last week went 4-2, bringing the overall 2024 record to 199-79. That record is tied for the 14^th highest among the more than 180 experts tracked by NFL Pickwatch. My picks with a confidence level of 6 or higher, which were 2-0 last week, have gone 31-4 since Week 13.

The playoff opener of the Texans at Chiefs will be available to all readers. The remaining picks will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

Houston at Kansas City

DeMeco Ryans did the right thing in playing his starters during much of the Week 18 game against Tennessee, because that solid performance got the terrible performance in the Week 17 blowout versus Baltimore out of the Texans minds. That allowed this club to stand up to the Chargers brand of bully ball and once they did this for a quarter and change, the game swung entirely in Houston’s direction.

The Texans will aim to keep their energy level just as high this week in the matchup at Arrowhead. The Chiefs defense allowed 100+ rushing yards in four of its last seven meaningful games, so there is a path for Joe Mixon to get going and to keep Houston’s spirits high in this difficult road environment.

The problem for Houston is that Andy Reid doesn’t use the bully ball approach (he once half-jokingly told John Clayton years ago that he would pass the ball on every down if he could). Kansas City can run the ball, as evidenced by the 124 rushing yards posted against the Texans in Week 16, but the Chiefs have rushed for fewer than 100 yards in six of the last ten meaningful games. Expect Reid to go after a Houston secondary that allowed 200+ net passing yards in seven of the Texans last nine contests.

Add that to the Chiefs being insanely good at protecting the ball (zero giveaways in Weeks 12-18), Patrick Mahomes playing at much higher level of late, the two weeks of rest and the game being in Kansas City and this is a Chiefs selection.

KC’s pick: Kansas City

Confidence level: 6

The remainder of KC's Divisional round picks are available exclusively to NFL Pickwatch Pro subscribers.

Washington at Detroit

It is difficult to overstate just how incredible the Detroit offense has been this year, especially of late. The Lions have scored 31 or more points in five straight games and haven’t scored fewer than 23 points since Week 3. Detroit has racked up 146+ rushing yards in three straight games and has posted fewer than 100 rushing yards only once this season. The Lions did have two giveaways against Minnesota but prior to that this platoon had only three giveaways in the previous seven games.

No team in the league outside of Buffalo has a shot at matching that scoring pace, but Washington’s offense is no slouch. The Commanders have scored 23+ points in all but two games since Week 2 and posted 36 points against a very tough Philadelphia defense in Week 16. Jayden Daniels had a bit of midseason slump following a rib injury suffered against Chicago in Week 8, but he’s been back to elite form for at least a month now and should win the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award.

Those trends are why this game has an over/under of 55.5 points, so the key here is how do these teams fare in high scoring games. That’s a problem for the Commanders, as Washington is 2-5 when allowing 26 or more points versus 11-0 when giving up fewer than 26 points. It’s tough to see the Commanders defense holding Detroit under 30 points, especially since the Lions are on track to get David Montgomery back this week, so this is a Detroit pick.

KC’s pick: Detroit

Confidence level: 6

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia

Los Angeles just posted 27 points against a very good Minnesota defense, but seven of those points occurred on a scoop and score and one of the Rams touchdown drives started at the Vikings 39-yard line. This helps show the reality of this situation, which is that the Los Angeles offense hasn’t played well for weeks, dating back to the Week 14 game against Buffalo. A lot of that has to do with the disappearance of Cooper Kupp, who has five catches on ten targets over his last four games combined.

What has led to the Rams success of late is a very strong defense that has helped this club allow 14 or fewer points in five of the team’s last six meaningful games. That track record is even more impressive that those numbers show, as Los Angeles gave up a single digit point total in four of those games, including the Wild Card win over a very good Vikings offense.

The caveat to this is that the Rams other foes in those games were a limited New Orleans offense, a banged-up San Francisco squad, a dysfunctional New York Jets offense and an Arizona Cardinals offense that doesn’t match up well versus the Los Angeles defense.

Now contrast that to the Eagles. Philadelphia has shown that it can win games in every manner possible. The Eagles offense can run to win with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts and pass to win with Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. The Eagles defense has held six of its last seven opponents to under 20 points, has racked up four or more sacks in three of the past four games and has allowed 200+ net passing yards only three times since the Week 5 bye.

Those elements provide Philadelphia with more potential paths to victory than any other team in the playoffs. Add in the short road week game for Los Angeles and it should turn this into an Eagles victory.

KC’s pick: Philadelphia

Confidence level: 6

Baltimore at Buffalo

This is the most anticipated game of the Divisional round. Baltimore and Buffalo both have Super Bowl caliber teams and thus will consider a loss in this round a disaster for their franchise. That should give this game a sense of urgency that none of the other matchups will have this week.

Baltimore’s urgency will come about in part because the Ravens offense is playing at its best level of the season. Baltimore has scored 28 or more points in five straight games, has posted 200+ rushing yards in four straight games and just racked up 299 yards against Pittsburgh in the AFC Wild Card matchup. That is the eighth highest rushing yardage total in NFL playoff history and fell short of 300 yards only because Lamar Jackson kneeled down on the game’s final play.

Buffalo’s offense has played at an elite level all season long. That continued with 31 points against Denver in last week’s AFC Wild Card game, but prior to that the Bills had racked up 30 or more points in nine of the previous ten games, with the outlier being a 24-point performance against New England.

Defense will be the differentiator in this game. Buffalo had a great game versus a somewhat limited Broncos offense last week, and this defense shut down the Jets in Week 17, but this platoon allowed 44 points to the Rams in Week 14 and 42 points versus Detroit in Week 15. Even the Patriots offense, one of the most talent challenged in the NFL, tallied 21 points in Week 16.

By contrast, the Baltimore defense is at its peak level for the 2024 campaign. The Ravens have allowed only 57 points over the past five games, with 14 or fewer points allowed in four of those contests. Three of these games were against the Steelers and Texans, two quality offenses, so these aren’t only a matter of a favorable competition level. What’s more, Baltimore allowed 56 or fewer rushing yards in four of those games, thus giving the Bills rushing offense a huge challenge.

That potential defensive advantage, when added to Derrick Henry being a tier above James Cook, should be just enough to give Baltimore the winning edge in this one by a small margin.

KC’s pick: Baltimore

Confidence level: 1