Following a crazy week in the NFL and an even crazier Monday morning trade which sent pass rusher Von Miller to the Los Angeles Rams, the NFC picture has never been less clear and it’s worth asking who is truly the best team in that conference.
The Rams are 7-1 and look like the most dominant team in the NFL. I’ve said it before, but it bears repeating that quarterback Matthew Stafford has both the best protection in the NFL and is also the most efficient QB when pressured. It’s hard to beat a team where there’s literally nothing you can really do defensively except hope an All Pro-caliber passer has an off day. Defensively, the Rams now have one of the most blue chip pass rushes in football—even if Miller and Donald are on the wrong side of 30.
Yet, the Rams have a loss...to the Arizona Cardinals who are coming off of a stinging primetime loss to the Green Bay Packers (more on them, later). The Cardinals had an unstoppable-looking offense (until Green Bay shut them down) and a defense that couldn’t be figured out (until, Aaron Rodgers). Was it a one-week issue for the Cardinals who were undefeated up until Thursday night? They’ve got San Francisco, Carolina and Seattle coming up, which should be easy wins.
The Packers, outside of a Week 1 aberration to the New Orleans Saints, have looked just as untouchable. Their wins against the Cincinnati Bengals and now the Cardinals stand as a few of the better resumes in this list—especially when you remember how injuries and COVID had them shorthanded in the latter matchup. QB Aaron Rodgers is the reigning MVP and starting to play like it in 2021 as well. His 17 touchdowns is 5th best in the league and his three interceptions is one of the best among starters.
The returning champs, the Buccaneers have only two losses. The first, to the Rams, is excusable in a big way. Losing to the Jameis Winston-less Saints, however? Wow… Still, you’re talking about Tom Brady and the best supporting cast in the NFL. It’s difficult to count them out—even after a tough loss—because Brady tends to drop a game or two like this every season and then come roaring back once people count him out. It’s almost like fuel for him.
Then there’s the Cowboys… They only have one loss (to the Buccaneers) and that loss is starting to feel almost as inexplicable as the Packers’. Since Week 1, the Cowboys defense has played a lot better—they’re 16th in scoring defense and haven’t given up more than 29. They just beat a viable Minnesota Vikings team with Cooper Rush instead of Dak Prescott under center. Meanwhile, over the second half of the season, their only real challenge is an end-of-the-season contest against the Cardinals and a few middling matchups with the likes of the Las Vegas Raiders and the artists formerly known as the Kansas City Chiefs.
Any of these teams (and their fanbases) can pretty easily lay claim to being the last man standing when it comes to the end of the season. Like usual, staying healthy and taking care of business is the name of the game. It’s possible to really like what the Rams are doing and still wonder if Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers or even one of the young guns like Kyler Murray or Dak Prescott can outduel Stafford in the postseason. It’s possible to really like the Buccaneers and wonder if they just run out of steam or if some of their aging players continue to wear down.
Who’s the best team in the NFC? Right now, the answer has to be a definitive, “let’s wait and see.”
What We Got Wrong...But Should’ve Gotten Right
Our first two matchups are both divisional foes who “got right” against a favored opponent.
The Carolina Panthers only inspired 21 percent of our tracked pickers to select them against the Atlanta Falcons, but won 19-13 in a game that saw QB Sam Darnold get knocked out of the game. The Panthers defense is better than their record (5th in scoring) and, meanwhile, things had been trending high for the Falcons offense only because of some really bad opponents.
Meanwhile, the Cleveland Browns got QB Baker Mayfield back, but that didn’t matter against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Only 29 percent of those tracked picked Pittsburgh, but the Steelers did just enough in a low-scoring affair and won battles on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. As Three & Out co-host Samantha Bunten pointed out, it was a really bad day for the Browns receiving corps as both Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. played really poorly.
Then, there was the toilet bowl. The Detroit Lions weren’t exactly favored, but only 45 percent were picking the Philadelphia Eagles to beat them. Maybe more surprising, only 20 percent of our Pro users were picking them. The Lions were a trendy pick, and got demolished. The Lions played the Rams tough the week before, but injuries on both lines left them overmatched.
What None of us Could’ve Saw Coming
With only 1 percent of those tracked picking the New York Jets against the thought-to-be-dominant Cincinnati Bengals, it’s clear that none of us really saw the Mike White thing happening. Instead, the Bengals looked overmatched defensively for the first time this season and had no answer for a quarterback who got the ball out of his hands early. The Bengals offense still looked fantastic, but just ran out of time.
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers were heavy favorites against the Saints with only 6 percent picking New Orleans. Then, Winston went down and things should’ve been easy from there, but the Saints’ electric defense took over and made things very difficult for Brady. Even though Brady had an OK day in terms of yardage, their two interceptions off of him were the difference.
The Schottey Six: Replacements for Derrick Henry
1. Adrian Peterson (Free Agent) — He’s on the street so it makes sense to kick the tires here, but those tires looked very worn out last season in Detroit.
2. Jamaal Williams (RB Lions) — Meanwhile, Detroit’s answer to AP’s inability to gain short yardage was bringing in Williams. He’s been a fan favorite in Detroit, but the Lions should clearly be sellers at the deadline.
3. Tevin Coleman (RB Jets) — He’s only 28 and isn’t really being used in New York.
4. Melvin Gordon (RB Broncos)—The Broncos are selling and it’s time to give Javonte Williams the rock a little more anyway.
5. Ronald Jones (RB Buccaneers)—He’s superfluous with Leonard Fournette and Gio Bernard and could use a change of scenery.
6. Jordan Howard (RB Eagles)— With a two-touchdown day against the Lions, stock may never be higher for Howard who has largely fallen out of favor in Philly.
Cleaning Out the Notebook
— As I said in the open, Von Miller is not the guy his name suggests, but that doesn’t mean he’s not still a very good pass rusher. The Rams are likely to use him situationally in passing situations and sparingly to keep him fresh for the playoff run. His best years were wasted in Denver thanks to the lack of a QB and now he’ll get to pin his ears back thanks to a team that can absolutely get and maintain an early lead.
— Why does every NFL player looking for one final chance at a ring end up in the NFC West?
— Across town from the redhot Rams, Justin Herbert is struggling in Year 2. NBC Sports’ Peter King pointed out on Three and Out last week that Joe Burrow and the Bengals excelled against a Ravens defense that befuddled Herbert and now he’s complaining about the Patriots Cover 2? Herbert does not seem overly ready to play week-in and week-out and the in-game adjustments are non-existant. This looks like a serious lack of coaching.
— Still, as much as I’m sounding alarm bells for the Chargers coaching staff, they’re not in the worst coached teams by far. Each week it seems to be rotating a bit, but Washington Football Team, Miami and Jacksonville are all clearly getting nothing from their sidelines. Even Detroit and Houston have more coaching bright spots.
— It’s not time to move on from Tua Tagovailoa in Miami (you’ve made your bed, now lie in it) but it’s clearer and clearer that he’s not the dude. I’d never think that I’d long for the days of Ryan Tannehill...
— Justin Fields had a good game against an average team. That’s it. That’s the note. Stop going out on a limb for guys after one good game. Elite NFL quarterbacks have multiple of those in a row.
— Following up on last week’s note, kudos to the Titans for winning even after King Henry went down, but the Colts have to be feeling good after going toe-to-toe with Tennessee. Indianapolis has now lost five games by an average of 6.6 points—all but one against the NFL’s best. The schedule does them no favors afterward, but this upcoming stretch against the Jets and Jaguars will be kind to them.
— Texans QB Davis Mills continues to shine in defeat. If Houston could put some more talent around him, he’d be even better. I don’t think he’s the franchise passer or anything, but he’s earned status as a potential bridge to make sure they don’t reach for a lesser prospect.
— It’s been a crazy week and a half at the Schottey household. My wife (a kindergarten teacher) came down with Covid. She’s vaccinated, and it was only a mild case, but it definitely made for some sleepless nights and some absolute upheaval of the norm around here. I’m thankful things weren’t much worse and thankful that my boys and I didn’t catch it.
— Probably should’ve done this at the beginning of football season, but decided to get really serious about meal prepping this week. Made bags of smoothie ingredients for the mornings and healthy lunches for the entire week. Let me tell you, it beats grabbing a quick carb in between podcast hits.
— Reese’s Pumpkins > Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups all day long, but the best Halloween candy is 100 Grand Bar and I will fight you if you say differently.
— For the first time in my coaching career I was told in the middle of a youth football game that I could no longer run the ball because I was up too many points. I had to pass. I asked the ref if he was sure, and he was, so I asked him to announce that to the crowd. I threw everything at the line of scrimmage, but still drove down the field and scored again...apologizing the entire way.
— Meanwhile, over in California, Inglewood High School beat Inglewood Morningside, 106-0, with UCLA commit Justyn Martin throwing for 13 touchdown passes. Inglewood High even went for two when they were up 104-0. The local athletic commission is promising an investigation into what’s one of the most classless sports stories in a long time.
Parting Schot
— “Luck is a dividend of sweat. The more you sweat, the luckier you get.” Ray Kroc