Doug Burrell - GridironExperts

ATS Record: 153-123 (55.2%)

What got you interested in NFL handicapping and picking?

I made my first Power Rankings model when I was 13 years old. I've always been fascinated with numbers and I would read Jeff Sagarin's computer ratings in USA Today religiously. I wanted to make my own, but this was in the 80's and I didn't have a computer. So, I did it with pen and paper. It was a pretty simple method: using the final score and home field advantage, but for my purposes, it worked great. Years later, I developed a more complex model and entered it into the NFL Prediction Tracker in the early 2000's, where it performed reasonably well against some of the top computer systems of the day.

How has your NFL handicapping strategy evolved over recent years and what would you say was your primary strategy in 2022-23?

Because I use data after a game has been played for my model, I don't look at look-ahead lines too much. I do check the spreads early Tuesday morning and usually find that's a great time to lock in a line. However, I check a few times each daily across multiple sportsbooks and sometimes find a better value mid-week. It's rare I wait until the weekend to make my pick.

Burrell's 2022 ATS Record Through…	ATS Wins-Losses	ATS Win%
Week 4	36-27	57.1%
Week 9	74-59	55.6%
Conference Championships	153-124	55.2%

What surprised you the most about the NFL betting regular season?

I was surprised at how well underdogs consistently performed against the spread, even as the season went on. I think underdogs covered around 55% this season. So, one would have made a nice profit by betting on them exclusively.

Is there any specific team or teams you would NEVER bet on in the future or dislike betting on?

I don't have any data to support this, but I would never bet on my favorite team, the Dallas Cowboys. As a fan of theirs since the '80s, I always have a sinking feeling that they're going to let me down. If anything, I would bet against them to maybe take a little sting off the loss.

What are your initial thoughts on the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl?

I like the Eagles -1.5, but I think that line is spot-on. Same with the point total. I run my simulation model 10,000 times for every NFL game and the point total for the Super Bowl averaged 50.519. Right now, the consensus point total is 50.5, so I would probably lay off that bet.

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Evan Western is the managing editor of Acme Packing Co. - the Packers primary channel on SB Nation. He's so much of a cheesehead, in fact, that on the very first bet of his life, on a brief trip to Las Vegas, he dropped some digits on the Packers to win Super Bowl XLV at 12-to-1 odds. Thanks to Aaron Rodgers' 304 yards and three touchdown passes in an MVP performance, Western cashed that first wager.

Evan Western - Acme Packing Co. (SB Nation)

ATS Record: 162-115 (58.5%)

What got you interested in NFL betting?

I started writing for Acme Packing Company regularly during the 2010 season and took over as the site's managing editor during the 2013 offseason. Since 2013, we have done some form of weekly game picks on a regular basis, and I've also participated in a handful of confidence pools over the years. A few years ago, APC expanded from making straight-up picks to point spreads and over/under totals.

How has your NFL handicapping strategy evolved over recent years and what would you say was your primary strategy in 2022-23

In the last year or two, I have tried to be more conscious of decoupling my moneyline and spread picks. In past years, I would rarely pick an underdog to cover a spread of less than five or six points unless I was picking them for a straight-up upset, but I tried changing that approach this season. I'm much more likely to pick a favorite on the moneyline but take the underdog at, say, +3.5. It seems that making that change to my approach worked out pretty well this year.

In terms of when and how I pick, I actually don't have much of a system. I tend to make most of my picks on Thursday afternoons, and only revisit them Friday or Saturday if there is some particularly surprising injury news. Otherwise, I generally do not spend a whole lot of time agonizing over the selections -- I just run through them and pick based on my initial impressions, go back over once or twice to make sure I'm not missing something major, and then usually stick with my gut feeling.

Western's 2022 ATS Record Through…	ATS Wins-Losses	ATS Win%
Week 4	34-27	55.7%
Week 9	80-51	61.1%
Conference Championships	162-115	58.5%

What surprised you the most about the NFL betting regular season?

I think this year's regular season was surprising in terms of how many close games there were. It felt that 2022 had more games separated by a single score than in any other season in recent memory, especially in the first half of the season or so. I think that helped me have some solid successes against the spread this year when you look at that combined with the tweaks to my strategy that I described previously.

If you had the choice, is there any specific team or teams you would NEVER bet on in the future because their outcomes are just so all over the place historically? Or that you dislike betting on typically?

Especially after this season, I'd rather never pick game totals again. I had a truly abysmal year on over/unders, and I don't think I've ever had a really good feel for when a game will be a 35-30 shootout vs. a 13-10 defensive struggle.

What are your initial thoughts on the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl?

Although Patrick Mahomes is incredible, I think the Eagles' defense matches up as well as one possibly can with that Chiefs offense. I have concerns about Philly having played a pretty easy schedule this season, but that pass rush group is practically unstoppable. That and the Eagles' running game is why I'm leaning towards Eagles -1.5 right now.

One player prop I really like, though, is the over on Jerick McKinnon receiving yards (23.5). The Eagles' defense isn't great at defending running backs in the passing game, plus I expect Mahomes to be under a lot of pressure, leading to a bunch of check-downs and screen passes. With McKinnon being a solid pass-blocker, I think he'll be on the field a bunch to serve as a protector and safety valve for Mahomes.

For more details on Evan's and Doug's picking prowess to-date, be sure to check out their Pickwatch detailed bios by clicking on the names above. Also, don't forget to learn which expert bettors fared the best ATS when picking the Eagles and Chiefs this season.