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Sportsbooks: BetMGM , FanDuel , Caesars , Bet365
Daily Fantasy: Betr Picks , Underdog
Welcome back to Upset Watch for 2024!
We're here, and we aren't going anywhere for the next 24 weeks, in which time, I'll guide you through the picks that matter this season.
New to Upset Watch? Here's how it works: Underdogs win around 35% of NFL games outright. Not against the spread, outright. If you can hit on around 40% of your underdog picks, you'll have a winning season.
That's where I come in.
Every week I pick a number of underdogs, usually between 4-6 depending on the schedule, to win, and a couple more to cover. I use a combination of data analysis, team trends, plus a healthy dose of my own instincts and understanding of the NFL, to find the teams who are most likely to upset the odds outright, and also those most likely to cover the spread as underdogs.
Over the last 6 seasons, we've generated $13,000+ in profit from game picks alone.
Last season, we finished with +$520 profit and a solid 42% win rate on 'winner' picks - however it was almost $1,000 in the last 10 weeks, and if not for an unusually indifferent start to the season, where bad luck saw us lose a handful of decisive covers, we'd have been on for yet another huge year.
But every year the slate wipes clean, and this year starts with another success story, our team win totals.
Win total picks
We're pretty good at this too. We use a methodology based on data analysis and trends to identify where the EV (expected value) is better or worse, and instead of going purely with gut instinct, we get results by finding situations that tend to yield the same results as years gone by.
Last season's win total picks went 5 of 5 (that's 100% if you're counting).
Panthers U 7.5
Falcons U 8.5
Cardinals U 4.5
Seahawks O 8.5
Titans U 7.5
Combine those picks and you would have around a +3000 parlay, so if you staked $25, you'd return a pretty sweet $750. We've had winning records in 3 of the last 4 years, and largely seen our methodology proven right much more often than not.
Upset Watch Discord and other updates
As you've no doubt seen around the site, Upset Watch is now a VIP feature, but we're adding a significant improvement to your experience as a result. Pro users will have access to Upset Watch until the end of their billing period, after which they'll need to shift to VIP - check your emails to get an exclusive members only offer.
As a VIP member, you'll get access to the Upset Watch Discord, where I will answer questions you have in a members only chat. This will give you a chance to both ask questions of me, get updated when picks change or are looking shaky because of say, injury news, and to read the questions and answers of others too.
Of course, you'll also get access to our other premium VIP features - 2023's NFL money line champ (if you have Pro you already know his name) will have his own private Discord server for Pickwatch fans in the same vein, as will the second-ranked lifetime ATS picker, with more experts to follow.
You'll also get access to our brand-new Insights technology, that analyzes your trends and finds weaknesses - for example, highlighting where you're consistently getting teams wrong when they face various circumstances, and then most importantly, showing you not only the best experts overall, but the ones who specifically gets the games right that you've got wrong.
There are lots of other features - and if you sign up now, we'll give you 20% off with code VIP20. Nice.
Oh, and we also have several million other new features that I urge you to check out and feed back to us on. There's even a nice suggestions area in the Discord.
Now, on to the picks...
Team win totals - How we do it
We take every team in our database over the last 8 years and analyze their situation heading into the season. Did they make a coaching change? Did they draft a rookie QB? Did they enter the second year of a QB? Did they expect their rookie to perhaps takeover during a season? Were they beset by injuries?
We then check what the impact was. Did they add wins on the previous season? Did they beat their over/under total?
Using this method, we can see trends based on player development, QB changes, and coaching changes, and we can then look ahead to this season and apply that logic to teams facing similar circumstances.
Here's what we found...
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