Another winning week, and that's 4 from our last 5 if you're counting - and I know you are.
Once again we were guaranteed a profit early, as our first 3 picks of the week - the Steelers, Colts and Saints - all won in the early window. We came to regret a late switch away from the Seahawks, who would have given us our 4th highest return of the season after we picked them at +240. Unfortunately, in a fever-induced haze thanks to our old friend 'Rona, I managed to back the Falcons, and with only 4 underdogs likely to hit, I felt like 6 was the maximum number of underdogs that would yield a good return.
I was right. There were 4 underdog winners, and had I stuck with the Seahawks, I'd have hit every single one of them from 6 picks.
Instead we hit on 3-of-4 which is still very good and of course, with the odds very much in our favor, meant a profit too.
Top picks
We went 2-2, and with the Colts being +180 and the Steelers +150, so a +6.5 unit profit on the week. We missed on the Chiefs (ouch) and the Bengals (double ouch).
All underdog picks
We went 1-1 with the Saints winning at +100 and the Falcons being crushed to within an inch of their life. We broke even on that one.
Points total picks
After 4 of our last 5 weeks were profitable, a 'challenging' week for O/U picks saw us go 4-10, our worst score of the season. Our best expert only scored 8, so in defense of our simulation model, almost every game went the opposite way it could, but hey, it'll adapt. That's the point of it...