Welcome to week 4's Upset Watch

Week 3 saw 4 underdog winners from 8 total underdog picks, while our 'top' selections went 2-3.

This week throws up some opportunities for us, as markets recalibrate. The great news after 2 weeks that have had 16 underdog winners, is that the oddsmakers no longer understand who will win. In their defense, almost every game now looks wide open, and there are way more bargains to be had across the board.

This week, we're looking at 5 top picks, and a couple more very interesting picks you might consider if you like things a little spicy. Read on for the best underdog picks of week 4.

How Upset Watch works

Each week we select a handful of underdogs who we think are most likely to upset the odds. We accompany these selections with a full analysis of the game, and a list of all games, ordered by our projected probability that the underdog wins.

Our aim is to be in profit by season's end - something we've managed in 7 straight years to a total of $+13,000 in profit. Because of the longer odds of an underdog, anything over a 40% hit rate is likely to yield a profit.

We combine data and trend analysis with good, solid research, to find the underdogs who have a better chance than the odds suggest, and that's what gets results over the long haul.

VIP members, read on for our best underdog picks of week 4. Not a VIP member? sign up here!