Welcome to week 7's Upset Watch, where we pick underdog winners and covers for the week ahead. Upset Watch uses weighted performance metrics to assess each team for strengths and weaknesses beyond the scoreline of their previous games, identifying matchups that are favorable, and predicting where upsets are most likely to occur.

We're up front about our record, even when we're losing. We don't charge the earth, because unlike the sharks who will squeeze you for hundreds of dollars for a single pick, we're happy to own both our losses and wins.

For reference, If you'd placed $100 on every underdog winner and cover pick we tipped over the last 3 years, you'd have won:

2020 profit: +$1,800
2021 profit: +$3,200
2022 profit: +$2,900

The nature of what we do makes it hard. You won't win every pick, and sometimes the games kick you in the nuts, but the ones you do win will mean you return a bigger profit. This is a guide to help you make your own decisions, and the usual disclaimers apply.

As part of your Pro subscription, you can also use our Underdog metrics, which mean that if you disagree with our picks, or 

Quick picks are published on Wednesday afternoons, and subject to revision over the following 24hrs as the first injury news comes through for the week. We add analysis for every game between Wednesday and Thursday evening.

We also publish occasional amendments and additions right up until Sunday. If the update is later than Thursday, we will send a notification and email to alert you. We try to avoid this as much as possible, but sometimes injuries or team news can't be foreseen on Wednesdays.