Tonight, we have another full slate of baseball, and that means it is time to give out our best picks of the night.
My 8-0-1 run came to an end last night as the Guardians lost and the Red Sox and Braves went well over the total. However, that will not deter me from picking out some winners. Usually, I do not like to get too fancy with my baseball picks, but a deep dive of the board this morning changed my mind. We are talking team totals, first-five totals, and then your classic betting on the total.
Whenever you have a bad night, all you have to do is dust yourself off, and pick out some winners, and that is exactly what we are going to do tonight. I wish everyone good luck with their bets today. We would love for you to tail our picks, we just ask that you do so responsibly.
Here are tonight's plays.
*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox
Yeah, I have another play for a Guardians game, what of it?
This time, however, I am not betting on the Cleveland Guardians Moneyline. Tonight, the Guardians will send out Aaron Civale, who has been pretty horrible to start the season. Coming into this game, Civale has a 9.45 ERA, and he gave up four runs in his last start against the Blue Jays. Although he struck out eight batters in his 5.2 IP in his last start, Civale has been a liability in this rotation all season.
He will go up against Vince Velasquez, who has been fairly solid this season. Over his career, he has never been more than an average pitcher, but this season, he has a 3.97 ERA, and his BB/9 is the lowest it has been in his career (3.57).
The White Sox finally beat the Guardians last night, and honestly, they did not really impress. Sure, they totaled 10 hits for four runs, but the Guardians looked emotionally lost. A few errors, and plays that should have been credited as errors saved the White Sox, and extended innings, which killed Cleveland. However, Josh Naylor hit another home run, so that's neat.
Anyway, if you have been following my picks, you know that the Guardians have one of the best offenses to start the season. Chicago is slowly getting better, but the White Sox offense is still not great. But with Civale on the mound tonight, I think both teams are going to jump all over the opposing starter. This number is a little higher than I wanted it to be, but this is a bad matchup for both starters, so I am expecting a lot of early runs.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (-106)
Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres
If you have not noticed by now, I love betting on the same series multiple times. My thought process behind that is that there is not enough time for teams to flip a switch in one series, so the trends heading into a series should hold, in theory. I have no idea if that is actually true, and that sounds like a hard thing to keep track of, but I win more bets than I lose, so maybe.
Anyway, I took the over in last night's game between the Cubs and Padres, and it was the only bet I hit on the diamond yesterday. Tonight, we have another bad pitching matchup with the Padres sending out Nick Martinez, and the Cubs more than likely having a bullpen day. From all the Chicago-based blogs I read this morning, all signs point towards Mark Leiter opening for the Cubbies.
We won't look too deep into Leiter because we do not know what the Cubs are going to do, but Chicago's bullpen holds a 3.46 ERA, which is average, and with David Robertson being placed on the IL this week, their "meh" pen just got even more "meh."
While Martinez has an ERA of 3.38, which would be his career-best, his BB/9 is up to 4.39, and his hard-hit rate has ballooned up to 35.5%. The Cubs are an average offense, as they are ranked 16th in hard-hit rate (29.2%), and 20th in wRC+ (96). However, against righties, the Cubs are ranked fifth in OBP (.322), fourth in BB% (10.3%), and 10th in BB/K (0.42).
The total has gone over in 10 of the last 15 for the Padres, and with a projected bullpen day for the Cubs, I like this game to be a high-scoring affair. I lean towards Chicago on the Moneyline as well, but the total is the play in this game.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115)
New York Mets at Washington Nationals
It is a shame that Juan Soto has to waste away a few years while the Nationals rebuild. I am pro-rebuilding, so this is not me screaming at the Nationals to try and contend. It just sucks that Soto has to play with a team full of Mickey Mouses and Donald Ducks every night.
Anyway, speaking of Mickey Mouse players, Washington will send out Aaron Sanchez to face a Mets lineup that is among the best in baseball. On the season, New York is ranked fifth in runs (136), third in wOBA (.326), first in OBP (.336), and fourth in wRC+ (117).
Sanchez has cut down on his walks, but his strikeouts are down, and he has already given up 13 earned runs in 13.2 IP this season. For reference, Sanchez only gave up 12 earned runs last season for the Giants in 35.1 IP. He also has a hard-hit rate of 59.6% which is pathetic, but the Mets are ranked 28th in hard-hit rate and 19th in home runs (25), so at least the Nationals should keep the ball in the yard.
Outside of Soto, the Nationals do not have a lot going offensively, and they are ranked towards the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. This morning, I almost took the over because of the mismatch between the Nationals' pitching and the Mets' offense, but then I realized something.
The Nationals are not a team I trust to keep up and push this game over the total.
Instead, we are going to roll with a hot Mets lineup. They have scored four runs per game over their last eight games, and while that would leave us under the Mets' team total tonight, I like this matchup for one of, if not the best offense in baseball.