Baltimore Orioles @ San Diego Padres Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 9/1/2025 6:40 PM EDT

We have your Baltimore Orioles @ San Diego Padres prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Baltimore Orioles hit the road to face the San Diego Padres.

Baltimore Orioles @ San Diego Padres Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: San Diego Padres -154 on Fanduel
Best Spread Odds: San Diego Padres -1.0 (-105) on BetRivers
Best Total Odds: Over 7.5 (-110) on BetRivers

Game Info

Date: September 1, 2025
Time: 6:40 PM EDT
Location: Petco Park, San Diego
TV: SDPA

Baltimore Orioles @ San Diego Padres Preview

The San Diego Padres, holding a 76-61 record this season, are looking to solidify their position in the NL West as they return home to Petco Park, where they boast an impressive 43-22 home record. Their offense averages 4.85 runs per game, backed by a .252 batting average. On the mound, the Padres' pitching staff has been a force, ranking 3rd in the league with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Projected starter Dylan Cease (6-11, 4.82 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) has shown better form at home, with a 3.86 ERA, and has a 4-1 record in his last five starts. The Padres also benefit from what is considered the best bullpen in baseball.

Conversely, the Baltimore Orioles are enduring a challenging season with a 61-76 record, placing them last in the AL East. Their road record stands at 30-39, and they've struggled recently, going 2-8 in their last 10 games, including a significant 13-2 loss to the Giants. The Orioles' offense averages 4.37 runs per game with a .242 batting average, while their pitching staff has a 4.73 ERA (27th in MLB) and a 1.38 WHIP. Kyle Bradish (0-1, 3.00 ERA, 0.67 WHIP) is the projected starter for Baltimore. While Bradish had a strong return from injury, striking out 10 over six innings in his last outing, the Orioles face an uphill battle against a strong home team.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Historically, the San Diego Padres have held an advantage over the Baltimore Orioles, winning 7 of their last 10 head-to-head meetings. However, recent matchups in San Diego have been more evenly split, with both teams tied at 2-2 in their last four meetings at Petco Park. The most recent encounter on July 28, 2024, saw the Orioles secure an 8-6 victory, with the total runs going over 9. In past head-to-head games, the Padres have generally outscored the Orioles, and both teams have frequently combined for over 7.5 total runs, suggesting a tendency for higher-scoring affairs between these two clubs. When playing each other, the Padres average 6.8 runs per game at home, while the Orioles average 4.2 runs on the road.

Pick: San Diego Padres Moneyline

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The San Diego Padres are the clear pick in this matchup. They enter this game as -154 moneyline favorites on Fanduel, and sharp money indicators show a 58.98% sharp win percentage for the Padres moneyline. Their impressive 43-22 home record is a significant factor, demonstrating their strength at Petco Park. Padres starter Dylan Cease has been particularly effective at home, boasting a 3.86 ERA, and has a strong 4-1 record in his last five starts. The Padres also benefit from one of the best bullpens in baseball, providing crucial late-game support.

In contrast, the Baltimore Orioles are in a slump, with a 2-8 record in their last 10 games, including a recent 13-2 blowout loss. Their road record of 30-39 further highlights their struggles away from home. While Kyle Bradish has shown promise in his return, the overall team performance and pitching depth for the Orioles are concerning. Given the Padres' strong home advantage, Cease's solid home performances, and the Orioles' recent struggles, backing the San Diego Padres to win outright is the most confident play.

Top Player Prop Picks

Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases

Gunnar Henderson has been a standout performer for the Baltimore Orioles this season, leading the team in hits (137), batting average (.280), RBI (61), and home runs (16). His season slugging percentage stands at .459. What makes this prop particularly appealing is his excellent historical matchup against Padres starter Dylan Cease. In 6 plate appearances against Cease, Henderson has recorded 2 hits, including a double, resulting in an impressive .500 batting average and .750 slugging percentage. This strong head-to-head performance, combined with his consistent offensive production, makes the over 1.5 total bases at +120 on FOX Sports a compelling pick.

Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBI

Manny Machado is a cornerstone of the San Diego Padres' offense, leading the team with 79 RBIs this season, complemented by 21 home runs and a .286 batting average. The Padres' offense averages 4.85 runs per game, and they are playing at home where they have a formidable 43-22 record. While Orioles starter Kyle Bradish has shown good numbers in his limited return, the Padres' lineup is potent, and Machado consistently finds himself in prime positions to drive in runs. Given that the Padres are favored and expected to score, Machado getting at least one RBI at +150 on FOX Sports offers significant value.

Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases

Fernando Tatis Jr. is a dynamic offensive threat for the San Diego Padres, boasting a .430 slugging percentage this season. As a key component of a Padres lineup that averages 4.85 runs per game and has a strong home record, Tatis Jr. is poised for a productive outing. While specific individual stats against Orioles starter Kyle Bradish are not available, Tatis Jr.'s ability to generate extra-base hits or multiple singles makes the over 1.5 total bases at +105 on FOX Sports an attractive play. The Padres are favored in this matchup, and playing at Petco Park, which has a neutral park factor for home runs, should not impede his power. This pick relies on Tatis Jr.'s consistent offensive prowess against an Orioles pitching staff that ranks 27th in MLB with a 4.73 ERA.