College football is back on Thursday night as we have an intriguing matchup with the Baylor Bears traveling to Morgantown to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET on FS1.

I don't know what it is about weekday college football, but I am so money at picking winners. I hit last night with the under on Louisianna vs. Marshall (credit to me), and I have yet to have a losing day for some weekday college football action. I may be tempting fate here, but unfortunately for those who root against me, I love my pick for this game.

This is one of those matchups that won't really dictate anything other than Baylor's chance at going back-to-back in the Big 12, and unless you are a Baylor fan, or have a Baylor Big 12 future, I cannot imagine you will care about that.

But I am so excited to actively pay more attention to this game than the nightmare the NFL is giving us tonight.

Anyway, let's get straight into the pick for this game. If you decide to follow our picks, we ask that you do so responsibly.

*Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Oct. 13, 7:00 p.m. ET	Spread	ML	Total
Baylor	-3 (-115)	-165	O 55 (-110)
West Virginia	+3 (-105)	+135	U 55 (-110)

Baylor Bears:

BLAKE SHAPEN DIME🎯🐻

pic.twitter.com/NjmucFPLbn
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 1, 2022

Despite two losses on the resume, Baylor is still a very solid team. The Bears are ranked 19th in offensive success rate, and defensively, they are as good as any unit in the country. The Bears only allow 23.3 points per game and 4.7 yards per play, and their front seven is very good against the run, as they allow 2.8 yards per rush and are ranked 10th in rush success and 18th in line yards, and 45th in finishing drives.

The problem with the defense is that they have a pretty obvious weakness in their secondary. They are ranked 96th in opponents' completion percentage (65%), 65th in pass success, and they have been carved up through the air against BYU and Oklahoma State. While West Virginia is not as good as either of those passing attacks, they have seen mild success from JT Daniels.

The good news is that the rush defense is elite, and the offense is ranked sixth in finishing drives, which is massive considering the Mountaineer defense is ranked 111th in finishing drives. Now, this game being played in West Virginia is significant as they have won 10 of their last 13 home games (and five-straight home games against Baylor), but on paper, this Baylor team is a lot better, especially on defense.

West Virginia:

JT Daniels with a STRIKE to put @WVUfootball up at the half 🎯 pic.twitter.com/1lppfYFgtn
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) September 23, 2022

As I just mentioned, this defense is a problem, and not in a good way. They are ranked 67th in line yards, 106th in pass success, 111th in finishing drives, and they are ranked 125th in coverage by PFF. Against the run, they are a little bit better as they are 61st in rush success, but this Baylor offense is very well-balanced, and it will most likely take a better-than-average performance from this defense to slow down one of the most effective offenses in the country.

Offensively, West Virginia is as good as anyone as they are ranked 22nd in rush success, and 31st in line yards, and although their pass success rate leaves a bit to be desired from an Air Raid offense, the Mountaineers are fourth in pass blocking and 32nd in finishing drives. Although I think Baylor's defense is much better than West Virginia's offense, the Bears are going to have their hands full trying to slow down this unit.

Baylor's pass defense gives West Virginia a gleam of hope, but the Mountaineers make their money on the ground, and it just so happens that the Bears have one of the best run defenses in the country.

If Daniels can get this passing attack rolling, there may be a path to be competitive, but the Mountaineers need to be able to push around this Baylor front seven and keep their defense off the field. If West Virginia's offense cannot establish the run, this mediocre defense is going to get gashed all night by one of the more well-balanced offenses in the country.

The Pick:

Baylor is the better team here, despite the two losses. Offensively they are as good as anyone, and although the defense has taken a step back from last year's Big 12 Championship team, they should be able to answer any concerns I have against this good West Virginia offense.

West Virginia is simply not consistent enough on offense, and going up against one of the top-rated run defenses is going to be what ultimately kills this team tonight. The Mountaineers like to run the ball and dominate the TOP battle. They will not be able to do that tonight, which means the defense will be on the field more often, which is a bad thing for West Virginia.

I would also take a peak at the over as Baylor should have no problems moving the ball and I expect West Virginia to be playing catchup for the majority of the night, but the official play is to lay the points with Baylor as the road favorite.

Pick: Baylor -3 (-115)

Photo Credit: Embed from Getty Images