BetSmart is the ultimate tool to find mathematically winning bets you won't find with the naked eye.

Sportsbooks often make mistakes in how they price odds or lines in relation to other books. BetSmart helps flag mistakes to you whenever they can make a profit. Here's how BetSmart won in week 1:

Middle Bets

Middle Bets are a great way of getting long odds of a parlay with minimal risk, and maximum payout. If you're not paying attention to them, you're missing out on an insanely profitable bet type most people don't know about.

We bet on a discrepancy between two lines at different sportsbooks, and when it hits, both sides win. If it loses, we only lose a few dollars.

The clincher? If you win roughly 1 in 15, you'll profit.

During the Baseball season, BetSmart has generated consistent profits by finding Middle markets that hit 1 in 6 times. This weekend, for example, two of four middles it flagged - Fraser Ellard (CHW) and Kevin Gausman (TOR) both hit their Total Pitching Strikeouts middles, meaning a crazy return of 702% ROI on the risked amount, which was only a few dollars per bet.

In the NFL, due to the nature of yardage and scoring, middle bets are far more common among a wider range. As I wrote in our Middle Bet strategy guide last week, the trick is to avoid high-scoring markets like points, big receiving yard totals, or passing yards, and instead, play markets with low scoring frequency, low variability, and a low target line.

For example, we DON'T bet player passing yards, where you need the player to hit a specific number of say, between 231.5 and 232.5, and any play can go for 99 yards or -99 yards. The range of outcomes on a play-by-play basis is so random that you're not going to win. This week, not one hit. The higher the total, the harder to hit.

We DO bet player receptions, which are far less frequent, and of course, go up in increments of 1. They also have low target lines, unlikely to be wildly different from the outcome. The chances of a receiver getting say, 5 receptions, is very high in comparison to the odds we receive if they do.

And those of you who read that guide and played it, will be very happy you did.

Market	Number of bets	ROI
Total Points (Kicker)	1	955%
Total Receptions	15	450%
Total Rushing Attempts	37	143%
Total Pass Completions	14	40.7%
Total Receiving Yards	153	33.1%

As you can see, the two I highlighted last week as ripe targets - Receptions and Rushing Attempts - killed it over a big enough sample size to think those are going to be big target markets. 5 of the 15 Total Receptions hit, including one I flagged to Discord users on Sunday morning for Jerry Jeudy to have exactly 5 receptions:

That total kicker market? I'm honing in on that. Last night at 6pm ET, that bet appeared on our scanner. Bally Bet had Will Reichard of the Vikings to score OVER 6.5 kicking points, while Draftkings had him UNDER 7.5. Guess what he hit? 7.

On that note...

Notifications

We're currently building our notification system to alert you when certain bets become available. You'll be able to set up notifications for a whole market, or just over/under certain thresholds. That means if you want to set up an alert whenever a Total Receptions bet comes in, or only those under -5% loss, or only those where the target prop value is between 3 and 4 receptions, you can.

We'll also be publishing more of the market data to help keep you informed, so you'll have full context of how many bets come in, and how many may be available each week.

Positive EV Bets

Positive EV bets are those where the sportsbook's odds are greater than the real probability of an event occurring. We find this by 'de-vigging' odds, and then comparing 'true' odds with the ones offered. If the odds are greater, you can make long term profits by betting only on things that are under-valued.

But like Middles, some markets are more profitable consistently.

Bet Type	No. bets	Win %	Total Profit	ROI
Total Rushing Yards	13	62%	+$94.1	59%
Total Rushing Attempts	29	62%	+$284.79	44%
Total Passing Yards	3	33%	+$9	43%
Money Line	23	61%	+$49.58	28%
Total Combined Tackles	33	52%	+$139.04	25%

Unlike Middles, we need to be more judicious about which bets to play. There were over 900 Positive EV bets available between Thursday and Monday in the NFL alone, so clearly, we can't play all (although if we had, we'd have made a profit!)

That's where we need data like this: Here's where we break down each bet type by the over or under. This gives us a flavor for which bet types are worth considering

Bet Type	Outcome Type	Number of bets	Win%	Total Profit	ROI
Longest Pass	Under	1	100%	$ 1	100%
Total Points	Under	2	50%	$ 20	95%
Total Combined Tackles	Under	16	63%	$ 272	76%
Total Rushing Yards	Under	10	60%	$ 84	59%
Total Rushing Yards	Over	3	67%	$ 11	58%
Total Rushing Attempts	Under	14	64%	$ 150	50%
Total Passing Yards	Under	2	50%	$ 10	50%
Total Passing Attempts	Over	5	60%	$ 47	50%
Total Receiving Yards	Over	12	75%	$ 44	42%
Total Rushing Attempts	Over	15	60%	$ 135	39%
Points	Under	23	70%	$ 78	29%
Receiving Longest Reception	Over	9	67%	$ 8	23%
Interceptions Thrown	Under	3	67%	$ 2	22%
Total Pass Completions	Under	9	44%	$ 18	21%
Total Rushing & Receiving Yards	Over	5	60%	$ 20	20%
Longest Rush	Under	5	60%	$ 8	17%
Total Receptions	Under	23	52%	$ 23	5%
Receiving Longest Reception	Under	18	50%	$ -1	-1%
Total Pass Completions	Over	7	29%	$ -9	-8%
Longest Rush	Over	7	29%	$ -11	-15%
Points	Over	25	36%	$ -80	-30%
Total Receiving Yards	Under	16	63%	$ -59	-33%
Total Passing Attempts	Under	3	33%	$ -20	-41%
Total Receptions	Over	22	27%	$ -321	-50%
Interceptions Thrown	Over	5	20%	$ -23	-53%
Total Combined Tackles	Over	17	41%	$ -133	-63%
Total Points	Over	2	50%	$ -12	-68%
Longest Pass	Over	1	0%	$ -4	-100%
Total FG Made	Under	1	0%	$ -1	-100%
Total Passing Yards	Over	1	0%	$ -1	-100%
Total Rushing & Receiving Yards	Under	1	0%	$ -4	-100%

As you can see, there are huge discrepancies between the best and worst bet types that I think is essential to know, but also great target markets.

I wouldn't simply say 'only take Positive EV under bets', but clearly in some markets, the correlation between a sportsbook mispricing the line, and that line resulting in the under, is higher than them mispricing the over.

Specifically, I'd also look at any bet type with higher volume of bets that consistently win. UNDER combined tackles bets, for example, are highly likely to be caused by gaps in sportsbook knowledge, and inability to price accurately. Similarly, rushing yards and attempts consistently hitting unders, stems from broad inability to price high variability Running Backs.

Expect those lines to get more accurate as the season goes on, but for now, when you hit our positive EV page, try filtering for those markets!

Sidebar and drilldown data

This data is useful, I'm sure, and you know more by now than you did before reading.

Unlike any competitor, however, we are offering you significantly more data, for less.

Yes, we will surface this data and provide it to all BetSmart users. You'll be able to quickly pull up the most profitable markets, filter by over/under, or even EV, to find which markets are generating consistent wins over the largest sample sizes.

This is all part of our duty to you. We're not here to push you towards specific bets, but we're giving you tools the industry simply keeps to itself. You'll have more data to make decisions, and be able to see much of that data in our sidebar, which will be added next week. There, you'll have access to top markets quickly, and a link to the dedicated table you can use to help cross reference a market's profitability.

We're also working on incorporating some features into our tables, so you'll be able to see a quick market analysis even within the row of a bet.

That's all for now, but if you're a BetSmart user, why not head on over to our Discord channel and chat about any of this with me directly! If you're not a user, there's a 14 day free trial available, to check out all of our features, such as the below, risk-free (and get 25% off with code SMART25).

Once you have access to this data, you'll never go back to betting with gut alone.