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What is Positive EV betting?

Positive Expected Value (EV) betting is a strategy built around finding bets where the true probability of an outcome is better than what the sportsbook’s odds suggest. In other words, it's about identifying situations where the odds are mispriced in your favor.

These opportunities are rare, but over time, consistently betting on outcomes with positive expected value should lead to long-term profit—even if not every individual bet wins. The key is that you're backing outcomes that win more often than the sportsbook’s odds imply, giving you a mathematical edge.

BetSmart, Pickwatch’s new betting tool, is designed to make this process easy. It automatically compares sportsbook odds with fair odds derived from real-time statistical models, then highlights bets with a positive edge. Each bet shown includes the expected value percentage, helping you understand how much long-term profit the bet may yield.

By filtering through thousands of lines across multiple sportsbooks, BetSmart helps users focus only on the bets where the math is on their side.

Why should you use Positive EV betting?

Positive EV betting isn’t about chasing hunches or hoping for luck — it’s about using math to gain an edge. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just starting out, this approach helps you make smarter, more disciplined decisions. Here’s why it works:

✅ It maximizes your profit
Positive EV betting is one of the only proven ways to beat sportsbooks over time. By betting when the odds are in your favor, you tilt the long-term results in your direction. Any time you're taking lower odds, you're paying the sportsbook a tax on your win that hurts your long term ROI.

✅ You don’t need to win every bet
With +EV betting, you can lose more bets than you win and still come out ahead. What matters is the expected return — not the win rate — and BetSmart helps you focus on bets with that positive margin.

✅ It removes guesswork
Using a tool like BetSmart removes emotion and instinct from your betting. You’re not betting based on hype or gut feeling, but on real, measurable value. The trend analysis allows you to bet within your chosen criteria, whether you know the market well or not.

✅ It scales with your bankroll
Whether you’re betting $5 or $500, Positive EV principles apply the same way. Over time, these small edges compound — and that’s where real profits come from.

✅ You get an edge sportsbooks don’t expect
Most casual bettors don't look for EV — they bet for entertainment. That’s why sportsbooks can misprice lines and not worry about most bettors taking advantage. Spotting those moments is where BetSmart gives you an edge.

What is the 'Kelly criterion'?

The Kelly Criterion is a money management formula that helps you decide how much to stake on a bet when you have a positive edge. In the context of Positive EV betting, it’s the ideal way to maximize growth while minimizing risk.

Rather than betting a fixed amount every time, the Kelly formula calculates your stake based on:

The edge you have (your EV%)
The odds you're getting
Your current bankroll

For example, if a bet has a 3% EV and you're getting +100 odds, the Kelly Criterion might suggest staking around 1.5% of your bankroll. If the edge is bigger, your stake increases. If it’s smaller or close to break-even, your stake shrinks—or the Kelly formula may suggest not betting at all.

Using the Kelly Criterion in combination with BetSmart’s EV estimates allows you to:

Bet more when the edge is strong
Avoid overbetting on low-edge opportunities
Grow your bankroll sustainably over time

It's a disciplined, mathematically grounded approach to maximizing the power of Positive EV bets. And it really works.

How do I place a Positive EV bet using BetSmart?

BetSmart takes a lot of the work out of identifying opportunities, and Positive EV is one of the core features.

First, The Positive EV tool identifies all Positive EV opportunities currently available. You don't need to bet them all to be successful, and BetSmart goes one step further than any other Positive EV tool, by providing market data for every bet type and player combination, so you can see if there are any positive or negative trends for say, Aaron Judge hitting Home Runs over the last 5 games, last 10 games, and so forth. Personally, I prioritize recency, but some markets have ebbs and flows, so long-term value can be great to know.

The Positive EV page is ordered by the EV% column. The higher the number, the bigger the edge. Cross reference that with the Trend columns, and you can easily work out when a bet is not just good value, but GREAT value.

Finally, BetSmart also provides your Kelly Stake based on your bankroll (set at the top of the page) for each bet, so if you do like a bet, you can stick to the disciplined method of betting that allows you to absorb losses, while maintaining profitability.

Does this mean I will win every bet?

No.

First off, anyone telling you that you'll win every bet using any system is likely lying to you. The more outlandish the win record, the more skeptical you should be.

But Positive EV betting is designed for long-term profit, and unlike Arbitrage betting (which I recommend to keep boosting your bankroll), has great upside. If you're smart and bet with discipline, not getting carried away, you should be able to add to your bank consistently over each month.

And crucially, the Kelly system is designed so that even if you suffer a bad run, that same discipline with stakes should mean you can absorb all but the most ridiculous losing streak.

My Top-5 Positive EV tips:

Get your filters right - BetSmart provides a ready made 'best bets' tab, that filters to show those bets that have the best trends in their favor, but getting your own filters set up is very important.

Personally, I have go-to filters such as filtering out bets under -120 and over +130, then ordering those bets by last 5 win %. That will usually give you some great potential bets, with enough upside to make things very interesting.
Get the best odds - As with Arbitrage betting, you need to have accounts everywhere. You should really already be using our Promo Converter and Arbitrage tools to generate risk-free money from all of these accounts anyway, but it has a huge role in Positive EV profitability. Don't get too lazy, too often. Every dollar you're giving back to the book, is a dollar against your long term profits.
Be disciplined - I've mentioned it several times, but if you bet all in on every bet, you will lose in the long run. That's because you can't afford the bad luck that afflicts us all at some stage. By sticking to the Kelly criterion, you'll never bet more than you can afford to lose on a 'bad run'.
Be careful with long odds - BetSmart tracks millions of lines in real time, but sportsbooks often make huge mistakes at the longest odds that are designed to pull bettors in. A +1200 line on a game that should really be +1000 is going to show up as a huge opportunity, but the probability is going to be around 6-7% on those bets, meaning you'll win roughly 1 in 15 times. That doesn't mean you shouldn't bet it, but keep your stakes low, and your expectations even lower.
Keep a track of your profits - BetSmart allows you to click the + sign next to every bet and we'll track it. You can also see the live progress of your bet in the bet tracker, and your profit and loss in each category, sport, and bet type.

Positive EV is one of the greatest tools in your armory as a bettor. Sportsbooks hate savvy bettoprs, and love people who bet with their gut every time. We built BetSmart because it's impossible to know everything about every bet unless you have a data tool on your side. Combining the no-risk profits of arbitrage, and a bigger bankroll via Promo conversion, means you can play Positive EV bets without worry, and with a greater chance of winning.

Now it's in your hands. Remember, you can get a free 7 day trial of BetSmart here, get $20 off a monthly subscription using the code SMART20, and if you have any further questions, you can get in touch using the support button, or check out the Pickwatch Discord! We're on hand to help you with this all year round.

Here's some of the tools you will have access to with a BetSmart subscription: