Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/26/2025 6:35 PM EDT

We have your Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Boston Red Sox hit the road to face the Baltimore Orioles.

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Baltimore Orioles -105 on BetMGM | Boston Red Sox -110 on Caesars
Best Spread Odds: Baltimore Orioles +1.5 (-170) on BetMGM | Boston Red Sox -1.0 (+114) on BetRivers
Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-115) on ESPN BET | Under 8.5 (-102) on BetMGM

Game Info

Date: 2025-08-26
Time: 6:35 PM EDT
Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
TV: MASN

Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Preview

The Boston Red Sox (72-60) head to Oriole Park at Camden Yards to face the Baltimore Orioles (60-71) in the second game of their four-game series. The Red Sox come into this matchup with momentum, having secured a narrow 4-3 victory over the Orioles in the series opener. Boston has been playing well recently, boasting a 6-4 record in their last ten games, while the Orioles are 5-5 over the same stretch.

On the mound for the Red Sox will be Lucas Giolito, who holds an 8-2 record with a 3.72 ERA this season. Giolito has been a reliable arm for Boston, and his team has a strong 7-2 record when he starts as the moneyline favorite. The Red Sox offense has been a force, ranking 5th in the league with a .252 batting average and leading MLB in doubles with 267, showcasing their ability to hit for extra bases. Their pitching staff is also solid, with a collective 3.72 ERA, ranking 5th in the league, and they are second in quality starts with 61.

For the Orioles, right-hander Kyle Bradish is set to make his first start since undergoing Tommy John surgery in June 2024. Bradish had a 2-0 record with a 2.75 ERA in eight starts last season before his injury. His return is a significant storyline for Baltimore, though there's inherent uncertainty about his immediate effectiveness after such a long layoff. The Orioles' offense has shown power this season, ranking 11th in both slugging percentage (.405) and home runs (159). However, their bullpen has struggled, ranking 22nd in MLB with a 4.45 ERA, and they've converted only 60% of their save opportunities this season, a weakness that could be exploited.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has played as a more balanced venue since adjustments to the left field wall in 2022, with a park factor of 101 and a home run factor of 108 for 2023-2025, suggesting a slightly hitter-friendly environment, particularly for home runs.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles have a rich history, with the Red Sox holding a significant advantage in overall victories. Historically, Boston has claimed 98 wins against the Orioles, with an impressive 58 of those coming on the road. The Orioles have secured 71 wins against the Red Sox, with 35 of those at home. In their most recent encounter on August 26, Boston edged out a 4-3 victory.

Looking at the 2025 season series, the Orioles currently hold a slight 5-4 advantage over the Red Sox. Interestingly, the Orioles have won their last four games in this series, even when playing in Boston. In terms of scoring, the Red Sox have historically been slightly more prolific against the Orioles, averaging around 5.29 runs per game, compared to the Orioles' average of 4.43 runs per game against Boston.

Pick: Boston Red Sox Moneyline

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I'm confidently backing the Boston Red Sox on the moneyline in this matchup. While Kyle Bradish's return for the Orioles is a compelling narrative, the uncertainty surrounding his first start back from Tommy John surgery is a significant factor. Pitchers typically need time to regain their form and command after such a lengthy absence, and he's likely to be on a pitch count, forcing Baltimore to rely on their struggling bullpen early. Lucas Giolito, on the other hand, provides Boston with a proven and consistently effective arm who has been reliable all season. The Red Sox also hold a clear advantage in bullpen strength, with closer Aroldis Chapman extending his hitless streak and Garrett Whitlock being dominant. Boston's offense has been more consistent and potent, especially with their league-leading doubles. The model projects the Red Sox to win with a score of 5-4, further supporting this pick. You can find the best odds for the Red Sox moneyline at -110 on Caesars.

Top Player Prop Picks

Ryan Mountcastle Over 0.5 Hits

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Ryan Mountcastle has been a consistent hitter for the Orioles, especially recently. He has hit the over on 0.5 hits in 80% of his last five games and an impressive 90% of his last ten games. For the season, he's hit the over in 66.18% of his appearances. When playing at home in 2025, he's hit the over 72.22% of the time. Against the Red Sox in 2025, Mountcastle has hit the over on this line in 66.67% of his games. Given his strong recent form and historical performance, taking the over on 0.5 hits for Mountcastle at -235 odds on BetRivers is a solid play.

Jeremiah Jackson Over 0.5 Hits

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Jeremiah Jackson has been on an absolute tear, hitting the over on 0.5 hits in 100% of his last five games and 90% of his last ten games. His season hit rate for this prop stands at 75%. When facing the Red Sox in 2025, he's hit the over in 66.67% of his games. Furthermore, in home games this season, Jackson has hit the over 80% of the time. With such strong recent and season-long performance, the over on 0.5 hits for Jackson at -245 odds on BetRivers is an excellent pick.

Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Gunnar Henderson has consistently contributed across multiple categories for the Orioles. He has hit the over on 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs in 80% of his last five games and 70% of his last ten games. For the 2025 season, he's hit the over in 53.6% of his games. Against the Red Sox in 2025, Henderson has been particularly effective, hitting the over in 75% of his matchups. Playing at home this season, he's hit the over in 59.68% of his games. Given his strong performance, especially against this opponent, taking the over on 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs for Henderson at -150 odds on Caesars is a favorable bet.