Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 2025-01-26

We have your Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship game.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick

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Best Moneyline Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -122 (FanDuel), Buffalo Bills +110 (BetMGM)
Best Spread Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -2 (-105, BetMGM), Buffalo Bills +2 (-110, ESPN BET)
Best Total Odds: Over 47.5 (-110, BetRivers), Under 47.5 (-110, BetRivers)

Special offers available for this game

Underdog: Free Pick for NEW Customers: Patrick Mahomes Total Yards > 0.5
Betr: Free Pick for NEW Customers: Patrick Mahomes Passing Attempts > 0.5
Betr: Free Pick for NEW Customers: Josh Allen Passing Attempts > 0.5

Game Info

Date: 2025-01-26
Time: 6:30 PM EST
Location: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
TV: CBS

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs have a storied rivalry, meeting 57 times in total. The Bills lead the all-time series 30-25-1 in regular season matchups, but the Chiefs hold a 4-2 edge in postseason meetings. Since 2020, the teams have faced off at least once per season, with Buffalo winning all four regular-season matchups and Kansas City winning all three playoff games. Their most recent meeting was on November 17, 2024, when the Bills defeated the Chiefs 30-21 in Buffalo. However, in the playoffs, the Chiefs have consistently had the upper hand, including a 38-24 win in the 2020 AFC Championship and a 42-36 overtime thriller in the 2021 Divisional Round.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs Preview

This AFC Championship game features two of the NFL's elite quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, in what has become one of the league's most exciting rivalries. The Bills enter the game with a league-best turnover differential of +27 through the postseason, while the Chiefs have not lost a turnover since their Week 11 loss to Buffalo. Both teams are coming off strong performances in the Divisional Round, with the Bills defeating the Ravens 27-25 and the Chiefs beating the Texans 23-14.

Josh Allen has been in stellar form, with 23 passing touchdowns and 7 rushing touchdowns in his playoff career. However, he is 0-3 against Mahomes in the postseason. Mahomes, on the other hand, has a 16-3 playoff record and is chasing his fourth Super Bowl appearance. The Chiefs' defense, led by Chris Jones and George Karlaftis, will look to contain Allen, who has been sacked only 17 times this season. Meanwhile, the Bills' defense, anchored by Von Miller, will aim to disrupt Mahomes' rhythm.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs Moneyline (-122, FanDuel)

The Chiefs' playoff experience and home-field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium make them the safer pick. Patrick Mahomes has proven to be clutch in high-pressure situations, and the Chiefs' defense has been dominant in recent weeks, recording eight sacks against the Texans in the Divisional Round. While the Bills have been impressive, their 0-4 road playoff record under Sean McDermott is a concern. Expect a close game, but the Chiefs' postseason pedigree gives them the edge.

Top Player Prop Picks

1. Josh Allen Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-110, BetRivers)

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Allen's dual-threat ability has been a key factor for the Bills, and he rushed for 55 yards and a touchdown in their last meeting with the Chiefs. With Kansas City's pass rush likely to pressure him, Allen should have opportunities to make plays with his legs.

2. Travis Kelce Over 75.5 Receiving Yards (-110, Caesars)

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Kelce has been Mahomes' go-to target in the playoffs, with nine 100-yard receiving games in his postseason career. He had 117 yards against the Texans last week and should be heavily involved again.

3. Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120, DraftKings)

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Mahomes has a history of stepping up in big games, and with weapons like DeAndre Hopkins and Travis Kelce, he is well-positioned to throw multiple touchdowns against a Bills defense that has struggled in the red zone.

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