Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 9/1/2025 1:35 PM EDT

We have your Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Cleveland Guardians hit the road to face the Boston Red Sox.

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Boston Red Sox -143 (BetRivers), Cleveland Guardians +125 (ESPN BET)
Best Spread Odds: Boston Red Sox -1.0 (+102 at BetRivers)
Best Total Odds: Over 8.0 (-112 at Fanduel), Under 8.5 (-120 at ESPN BET)

Game Info

Date: 2025-09-01
Time: 1:35 PM EDT
Location: Fenway Park, Boston
TV: -

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox Preview

The Cleveland Guardians (68-67) travel to Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (76-62) in a Monday afternoon matchup. Both teams are currently in third place in their respective divisions, looking to gain ground in the American League Wild Card race. The Guardians are coming off a 4-2 loss to the Mariners, while the Red Sox secured a 5-2 victory over the Pirates in their last outing, snapping a five-game losing streak at Fenway Park.

On the mound for the Guardians will be rookie left-hander Parker Messick, who has been impressive in his first two major league starts. Messick boasts a 1-0 record with a stellar 0.66 ERA and 12 strikeouts this season, having allowed just one earned run over 13.2 innings. This will be his first career start against the Red Sox.

The Red Sox will counter with right-hander Brayan Bello, who holds a 10-6 record with a 2.99 ERA and 108 strikeouts this season. Bello has been a reliable starter for Boston, consistently keeping opponents in check. The Red Sox have a 14-9 record against the spread when Bello starts, and are 10-3 when he starts as a moneyline favorite.

Recent trends show the Red Sox have struggled as home favorites, losing five of their last six games in that scenario. Conversely, the Guardians have shown resilience as underdogs, winning four of their last five games when coming off a home loss. Fenway Park generally plays as a batter-friendly venue, with a park factor of 105, though it's slightly less favorable for home runs (89).

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The Boston Red Sox currently lead the season series against the Cleveland Guardians 2-1. The Red Sox took two of three games when these teams last met in Cleveland back in April. Boston enters this matchup having won their last two straight games against the Guardians. Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello has a career record of 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA and 10 strikeouts against the Guardians in his previous appearances.

Pick: Under 8.5 Total Runs

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This game presents a compelling case for the Under. Both starting pitchers, Parker Messick and Brayan Bello, have demonstrated strong form. Messick has been exceptional in his brief MLB career, allowing minimal runs and showcasing excellent control. Bello, on the other side, has been a consistent performer for the Red Sox with a sub-3.00 ERA. While Fenway Park can be hitter-friendly, the recent performance of both pitchers suggests a lower-scoring affair. The Guardians have also been noted as one of the worst teams against right-handed pitching in August, which bodes well for Bello. Given the pitching matchup and recent offensive struggles against the respective pitching hands, the Under 8.5 total runs at -120 odds on ESPN BET appears to be the most favorable play.

Top Player Prop Picks

Brayan Bello (Boston Red Sox) - Pitcher Outs Over 17.5

Brayan Bello has consistently gone deep into games, making the Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs an attractive prop. He has hit the over on this line in 80% of his last five, ten, and fifteen starts, averaging 19.0, 19.6, and 19.13 outs respectively. For the season, he's hit the over in 62.5% of his starts, averaging 17.71 outs. Furthermore, in his only appearance against the Guardians in 2025, he hit the over 100% of the time, recording 18.0 outs. When pitching at home this season, Bello has hit the over in 60% of his starts, averaging 17.6 outs. The odds for this prop are -165 on BetMGM.

Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox) - Hits Over 0.5

Jarren Duran has been a reliable source of hits for the Red Sox, especially at home. He has hit the over on 0.5 hits in 80% of his last five games, averaging 1.2 hits. Over his last ten games, he's hit the over 70% of the time, averaging 0.9 hits. For the entire season, Duran has hit the over in 70.59% of his games, with an average of 1.03 hits. Against the Cleveland Guardians in 2025, he's hit the over in 66.67% of his three matchups, averaging an impressive 2.33 hits. At Fenway Park this season, Duran has hit the over in 75.71% of his games, averaging 1.11 hits. The odds for this prop are -220 on BetMGM.

Kyle Manzardo (Cleveland Guardians) - Bases Over 0.5

Kyle Manzardo has been showing strong offensive production recently, making the Over 0.5 Bases prop a solid pick. He has hit the over on this line in 80% of his last five games, averaging 2.2 bases, and in 70% of his last ten games, averaging 1.4 bases. For the season, Manzardo has hit the over in 58.97% of his games, averaging 1.52 bases. When playing on the road in 2025, he has hit the over in 62.07% of his games, averaging 1.57 bases. The odds for this prop are -190 on ESPN BET.