Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 9/5/2025 7:35 PM EDT

We have your Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Cleveland Guardians hit the road to face the Tampa Bay Rays.

Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: Tampa Bay Rays -140 (Caesars) / Cleveland Guardians +125 (ESPN BET)
Best Spread Odds: Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +165 (ESPN BET) / Cleveland Guardians +1.5 -178 (BetRivers)
Best Total Odds: Over 8.0 -108 (BetRivers) / Under 8.0 -106 (ESPN BET)

Game Info

Date: 2025-09-05
Time: 7:35 PM EDT
Location: George M. Steinbrenner Field, Tampa, Florida
TV: -

Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays Preview

The Cleveland Guardians travel to George M. Steinbrenner Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays in what promises to be an intriguing MLB matchup. The Rays will send Griffin Jax (1-7, 4.98 ERA) to the mound, with Ian Seymour (3-0, 2.97 ERA) expected to serve as a bulk pitcher. For the Guardians, Gavin Williams (9-5, 3.26 ERA) gets the start.

The Rays have found comfort in their temporary home this season, boasting a 38-33 home record. They are often seen as undervalued by oddsmakers, making them a frequent target for bettors. Advanced statistical models project the Rays to be about a run better than the Guardians in this contest. Their bullpen has also been in better recent form compared to Cleveland's.

On the other side, the Guardians have struggled at the plate recently, hitting just .198 over their last 27 games. They've also shown vulnerability against right-handed pitching, recording the lowest wOBA and second-highest strikeout rate in such matchups.

Both teams are dealing with a number of injuries. The Rays have several players on the 10-Day or 60-Day IL, including key pitchers Alex Faedo and Shane McClanahan, along with position players like Taylor Walls and Jonathan Aranda. The Guardians are also missing significant contributors such as Nic Enright, Lane Thomas, and Emmanuel Clase.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The recent head-to-head history between the Guardians and Rays has been evenly split, with each team securing five wins in their last ten meetings. The most recent encounter on September 4, 2025, saw the Tampa Bay Rays emerge victorious with a 4-2 score. Looking further back, the series has often been low-scoring, with the total going under in seven of the last ten games.

Pick: Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline

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Considering all the data, the Tampa Bay Rays Moneyline at -140 via Caesars stands out as the best straight pick. Our predictive models give the Rays a 56% chance of winning, and sharp money aligns with this, showing a 56.93% win probability for Tampa Bay. The Rays' strong home record at George M. Steinbrenner Field, coupled with their bullpen's recent performance, provides a solid foundation for this pick. Furthermore, the Guardians' struggles against right-handed pitching and their recent offensive slump make it difficult to back them on the road against a favored Rays squad.

Top Player Prop Picks

Brandon Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays) - Over 0.5 Hits

Brandon Lowe has been seeing the ball exceptionally well lately, hitting the over on his hits prop in 100% of his last five games and 90% of his last ten. Over the entire season, he's cleared this line in 73.5% of his appearances. Historically, Lowe has performed strongly against the Guardians, hitting the over in 75% of his matchups against them in 2025 and an impressive 85.71% in 2024. Playing at home, he's hit the over in 68.75% of his games this season. Given his consistent production and favorable historical matchups, taking Lowe to get over 0.5 hits at -180 odds on BetRivers is a strong play.

Yandy Díaz (Tampa Bay Rays) - Over 0.5 Hits

Yandy Díaz is another reliable option for hits. He's hit the over on his hits prop in 60% of his last five games and 70% of his last ten, maintaining a season-long hit rate of 69.47%. His performance against the Guardians has been particularly noteworthy, hitting the over in 75% of his 2025 matchups and 83.33% in 2024. At home, Díaz has cleared this line in 66.18% of his games this season. With his consistent hitting and excellent track record against Cleveland, backing Díaz to record over 0.5 hits at -250 odds on BetMGM is a confident pick.

Kyle Manzardo (Cleveland Guardians) - Over 0.5 Total Bases

For the Guardians, Kyle Manzardo presents a compelling case for total bases. He has hit the over on his total bases prop in 60% of his last five games and 70% of his last ten, with a season hit rate of 59.5%. Manzardo has shown a strong ability to get on base against the Rays this season, hitting the over in 75% of his 2025 matchups against them. When playing on the road, he's maintained a 62.9% hit rate for this prop in 2025. Given his recent form and success against Tampa Bay, taking Manzardo to get over 0.5 total bases at -140 odds on Caesars is a solid choice.