Ladies and gentlemen, college football.

Anyway, I am simply a lousy gambler right now. My college football picks have flopped (unless you are following me on Twitter, where I give out every single pick I make, then, in that case, I am doing ok, but none of that matters, and no, I am totally not using this very very very long aside to distract y'all from the fact that I am in a funk right now (that would be very cowardly of me), but hopefully that will change) but dammit that will not stop me from finding the best bets for the people.

In all honesty, though, I do like the board this week, and we have one of my favorite betting scenarios, so I expect this to be a great week. That's enough of the intro; let's talk some ball. If you decide to follow our best bets, we ask that you do so responsibly.

*Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Best Bets:

Air Force (-7) @ Army O/U 40.5

I really don't think I need to go too deep into this one. The total has gone under between Service Academies in 42 of the last 52 matchups (dating back to 2009). I was shocked that I found this number at 40 or above. By now, one would think that the oddsmakers would catch on.

Air Force runs the ball the second-most times in the country (57.9), while Army is ranked third in rushes per game (55.0). Both teams run the ball on more than 85% of their snaps, neither team is a threat for the homerun ball, and Air Force only allows 16.7 points per game and 273.1 yards per game.

AIR FORCE STRIKES....THROUGH THE AIR! Haaziq Daniels to David Cormier for the 67 yard TD!! pic.twitter.com/q1QGH8VHo0
— 𝗙𝗢𝗟𝗟𝗢𝗪 @𝗙𝗧𝗕𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗱𝟳 (@FTBeard7) October 1, 2022

While neither team is that great at stopping the run, these are two prominent run-first teams, which means possessions will be limited, meaning scoring opportunities will also be limited. Again, this one should not require a lot of thought; take the under.

Pick: Under 40.5

Alabama (-13.5) @ LSU O/U 56.5

Somehow, this game turned into more than it should have when the brilliant minds in the college football playoff committee decided that there are not 10 better teams than two-loss LSU.

By the way, does anyone happen to know what channel this game is on?

Do not get me wrong, I think LSU is better than what they were given credit for prior to the CFP committee going sicko mode for ratings, but I don't know if people realize just exactly what they are walking into.

Even though Alabama lost to Tennessee earlier in the year, and they have struggled with every decent opponent they have seen, if I can get Nick Saban and the Tide under two touchdowns coming off a BYE, I will take it every single time. I couldn't find Saban's ATS record coming off a BYE, but I did see this.

Nick Saban's ATS performance in National Title games:

BCS Era (month to prep): 4-0 ATS (+15.5 ppg)
Playoff Era (10 days to prep): 0-4 ATS (-11.5 ppg)

Hypothesis: Less time to prep = less time for Saban (& large support staff) to exert their superiority.
— Brad Powers (@BradPowers7) January 7, 2021

Basically, if you give Saban enough time to prep, he will come up with the most "of course they are winning by 35" game plan ever. Alabama has one of the most explosive offenses in the country, ranking third in points per play (0.612), FEI (per-possession scoring advantage over the competition on a neutral field), and SP+. While LSU is decent against the pass, we saw a similar offense come into Death Valley (Tennessee) and demolish this team, even doing it on the ground, where LSU's defense has struggled.

Alabama is better upfront, at quarterback, at running back, and on defense. LSU has scored 90 points over the last two weeks, but that came against Florida and Ole Miss, two defenses I do not respect, and this Tide defense ranks sixth in scoring (16.6), fifth in yards per play (4.1), fourth in yards per pass (5.8), and second in yards per rush (2.7).

This game will be closer than the scoreboard tells us because of how hard it is to play in LSU's backyard, but I trust Alabama to pull away late.

Pick: Alabama -13.5

Texas (-2.5) @ Kansas State O/U 54.5

Let's talk about my beloved Kansas State Wildcats. They are one win away from cashing the over on 6.5 wins; they have one of the best rushing attacks in the country, led by Deuce Vaughn; their defense only allows 19.7 points per game and 0.269 points per play. Yet, I am not comfortable taking them in this spot.

First of all, the Wildcats are expected to get Adrian Martinez back, which may be bad as he is averaging only 6.5 yards per pass, and backup Will Howard is playing at a high level right now. Under Howard, Kansas State is averaging 15.3 yards per completion, and he led the Wildcats in their dominating 48-0 blowout of Oklahoma State. The week before that, he had Kansas State in a prime position to knock off TCU before he got knocked out of the game.

In 2 career games vs Texas, Deuce Vaughn has 268 rush yards averaging 7.9 yards per carry 3 TDs and 52 receiving yards pic.twitter.com/HZyWBUxIfG
— Clint The K-State Fan (@Thekstatefan2) November 4, 2022

This offense runs better under Howard, but you cannot just entirely eliminate Martinez's athletic ability. On the year, he has rushed for 565 yards and nine rushing touchdowns. One might ask why Texas is giving 2.5 points here when their last game was a 41-34 loss to Oklahoma State, the same team Kansas State pantsed on live television. However, Quinn Ewers was dealing with a hand injury, which derailed the offense as he finished 19-49 with three interceptions.

Defensively, neither of these teams has been that great as Kansas State got torched against every good passing team in the Big 12, and Texas just simply gets torched no matter who they play. With the total being under 60 points, I am all over the over as these two offenses will shine against poor defenses.

Pick: Over 54.5

The Full Card:

Best Bets:

Air Force @ Army: Under 40.5 (-110)

Alabama @ LSU: Bama -13.5 (-115)

Texas @ Kansas State: Over 54.5

Rest Of The Card:

Liberty @ Arkansas: Over 60.5 (-110)

Michigan State @ Illinois: Over 40.5 (-110)

North Carolina @ Virginia: NC -7 (-110)

Clemson @ Notre Dame: ND +3.5 (-110)

James Madison @ Louisville: James Madison ML (Sprinkle) +240

Photo Credit: Embed from Getty Images