Welcome back to the gambling corner.

It is still the most wonderful time of the year with college football on my screen every night, but the slow realization that next week is the last week of the regular season is starting to hit me like a ton of bricks. Luckily, college basketball has been treating me well, especially my unders system, so vibes are still high over here.

I probably will not break my single-season sports betting record of 64.4% that I set during the last college football season, but I am still up on the season, and I might as well win the rest of my bets, and that is precisely what I plan on doing this week. Anyway, let's talk some ball.

If you decide to follow our best bets, we ask that you do so responsibly.

*Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

USC (-2.5) @ UCLA O/U 76.5

The Pac-12 can officially complete their annual "self-ass kicking" if UCLA can beat USC, a week after Washington beat a top-6 ranked Oregon team. This week, UCLA, which was holding on by a thread in the playoff race before last week's loss to Arizona, can effectively eliminate the Pac-12 from playoff contention.

USC is slightly overrated, but this offense is as good as any in the country. They rank third in scoring (42.4), fourth in yards p[er play (7.0), ninth in yards per pass (8.9), and most importantly, they are second in 3D Conversion percentage, which will be huge in this game considering UCLA's defense is 81st in the same stat, and they are 87th in DVD, meaning that they are allowing opposing offenses to finish drives with a greater value based on starting field position.

Basically, the Bruins are allowing teams to put together some drives; however, the same can be said on the other side, as USC is allowing 5.7 yards per play, 394.2 yards per game, and 4.5 yards per rush, which may be the key in this game. UCLA is picking up 6.3 yards per rush, which leads the country, they rank third in Line Yards, and Zach Charbonnet has been one of, if not the best, running back in the country with 1,145 yards on 7.5 yards per rush and 13 touchdowns.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson just embarrassing defenders left and right this season pic.twitter.com/ASwzGdR8Gu
— Saturday Gameday (@SaturdayGameday) November 9, 2022

USC has been effective on the ground as well, but Travis Dye went down with an injury last week that will end his season, and their second-leading rusher, Austin Jones, only has 52 carries on the season. This game will fall squarely on Caleb Williams's shoulders, but without Dye, the Trojans may be in for some huge trouble. They have played four one-score games, winning three of them, and in those games, they rushed for an average of 179.2 yards per game.

I see these teams as equals at this point, as both have explosive offenses and shaky defenses, but I will take the Bruins here. The favorite has covered six of the last eight in this series, but I really like how Dorian Thompson-Robinson has progressed in his 50th year at UCLA, and he makes a lethal pairing with Charbonnet in the ground game, where USC has struggled.

Pick: UCLA +2.5

Kansas State (-7.5) @ West Virginia O/U 54.5

I am five weeks into my pro-Will Howard campaign, and the Wildcats have finally joined me. Howard took over for Adrian Martinez last week and again led this team to another dominating performance. On the season, Howard has 717 yards passing on 8.5 yards per attempt and nine touchdowns to only one interception.

He led this team past Baylor, dominated Oklahoma State, and had TCU on the ropes heading into halftime before he was knocked out of the game and things fell apart. Now, he is getting a whole week of starting reps in practice, and the last time that happened, they wiped the Pokes off the map.

Will Howard fitting the ball into a tight window for the Ben Sinnott TD pic.twitter.com/0TFUdf3NPg
— The Kansas State Fan (@Thekstatefan) November 16, 2022

This week, the Wildcats will go up against a West Virginia defense that ranks 120th in points per play, 121st in yards per play, 126th in yards per pass, and they are giving up 35.7 points per game. However, Kansas State's identity will always be the run with Deuce Vaughn at running back, which still won't be a problem as the Neers' have not been able to stop the run all season.

West Virginia finally benched a struggling J.T. Daniels, and it worked as they were able to knock off Oklahoma last week, but with Kansas State's defense coming into town, I expect this offense to struggle and for Kansas State to slowly grind this game away, and keep it under the total.

Pick: Under 54.5

TCU (-2) @ Baylor O/U 57.5

Listen, TCU certainly has been lucky this season. In their 10 games, in which they have lost none, which is the most important thing, they have played the opposing team's backup quarterback five times, and in one of those games, they actually injured the starter (Adrian Martinez), and the backup (Will Howard) was better and was kicking their asses before he got injured. I am also starting to doubt how healthy Quinn Ewers is after last week, so they may have gotten more lucky in a spot everyone thought they would lose.

But, like I just said, winning is the only thing that matters, and their defense deserves some credit for stepping up when the offense starts the struggle. This week, however, they are going up against a Baylor offense that put up three points last week, and it is senior day in Waco, so they are going to have a little extra juice, especially since they can spoil the playoff chances of the team that possibly knocked them out of the playoffs last season.

Max Duggan ➡️ Quentin Johnston!!! #GoFrogs pic.twitter.com/4EkB4NaWdS
— TCU Athletics (@TCU_Athletics) November 13, 2022

With everything being said, Baylor's defense has gotten torched the past few weeks, and they are allowing 27 points per game and 373 yards per game. TCU should be able to move the ball against this unit as they normally have all season, and Baylor's offense does not scare me at all. The Bears are 4-1 ATS following a loss under Dave Aranda this season, but to put it simply, TCU is just a better team, and if I can get them under a field goal, I absolutely will be taking them.

Pick: TCU -2

Other Bets:

Wisconsin @ Nebraska: Wisconsin -10

Navy @ UCF: Navy +15.5

Boston College @ Notre Dame: BC +21

Ohio State @ Maryland: Under 64

Iowa @ Maryland: Over 32.5 & Iowa ML +120

Photo Credit: Embed from Getty Images