You hate to drop a hyperbole-driven hot take after one game, but Tua Tagovailoa likely lost the NFL MVP over the past two weeks. His Dolphins offense appeared lethargic as he completed just 10-of-28 passes against a depleted Chargers secondary. Miami’s 23-17 loss Sunday night dropped their record to 8-5 straight up and 6-7 against the spread after failing to cover as 3-point road favorites.

The Bills overcame a sluggish start and 2-for-13 on third downs to survive and advance with a 20-12 win over the Jets. Buffalo improved to 10-3 overall, but fell to 6-6-1 against the spread after failing to cover a hefty 10-point spread against an AFC East rival.

Line Movement

The Bills opened as 7.5-point home favorites, but Week 15 odds can be found as low as Buffalo -6.5 at the best online sportsbooks we follow. The Dolphins moneyline odds are anywhere between +230 and +250. The over-under point total opened at 47.5, but bookmakers are struggling to find a consensus O/U as its as high as 48.5 and low as 45.5. The UNDER has hit in nine of Buffalo’s last 11 games, while the OVER has cashed in four of the Dolphins last six games.

Despite a bumpy stretch, Buffalo remains the favorite to win Super Bowl 57 at +375 futures odds, while the Dolphins are in the mix at 22-to-1.

Note: this is a Saturday game.

Dolphins News and Notes

• During their five-game winning streak, the Dolphins averaged 30.2 points per game.
  • During their two-game losing streak, they’ve averaging 17 points per game.
• Tua completed just 35.7% of his passes against the Chargers, which was the lowest rate in a game since 2019 (Sam Darnold, “seeing ghosts” game) and a 42-year Miami franchise low.
  • Over the past two games, he’s completed just 45.9% of his passes compared to 65.5% for the season.
• Running back Jeff Wilson is questionable for Week 15 due to a hip injury that knocked him out of the Chargers game Sunday night.
• Keep tabs on Tyreek Hill’s ankle injury this week as he’s probable as of now, but was definitely fighting through the pain Sunday night.
• Miami’s three losses have come against the Bengals (Super Bowl contender), 49ers (Super Bowl contender) and Chargers (Playoff contender) – all road games – by an average margin of defeat of 11.3 points.
• The Dolphins time of possession had dipped to a league-low over the past three weeks.
  • They’ve converted just 21% of their third downs during that stretch.

Bills News and Notes

• Buffalo lost 21-19 in Miami earlier this season.
• Saturday Weather Report: high of 34 degrees, 10-20 mph winds, with 50% chance of snow and 1-3 inches expected before dipping below 30 degrees for kickoff and 40% chance of snow.
  • Miami has the homefield heat advantage, but I’m not sure who wins when its that cold on game night.
• Over the past three seasons, Josh Allen has completed 59% of his passes with 18 touchdowns and 8 interceptions when the mercury drops below 40 degrees.
  • In a small sample size, Tua has struggled playing in cold weather.
• Josh Allen has embraced his inner-game manager during the Bills active four-game win streak.
  • He’s averaging 205 passing yards per game with six touchdowns and only one interception.
  • Compared that to 400 yards passing in his first meeting against the Dolphins earlier this year.
• Dr. Jekyll vs. Mr. Hyde (not Micah): The Bills offense punted on their first five drives against the Jets before scoring touchdown, touchdown, field goal, field goal on four consecutive possessions.

Betting Pick: OVER 45.5, Bills -6.5

Tua’s in a funk, Tyreek’s ankle is hurting, Jeff Wilson is likely out and the Bills defense held their last two opponents to 22 points combined. I like Buffalo -6.5 a lot, would fade Bills -7-or-higher.