Tua Tagovailoa, a top-five favorite to win NFL MVP, threw two interceptions, lost a fumble and was sacked three times by Nick Bosa in the Dolphins 33-17 at San Francisco. Miami dropped to 8-4 straight up and a disappointing 6-6 against the spread after covering three of their past four games heading into Week 13.

The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Chargers are back ladies and gentlemen. Their 27-20 loss to the Raiders last weekend was their third in four games and dropped them to 6-6 overall. Justin Herbert’s MVP season will have to wait as Los Angeles is just hoping for a wild card berth at this point. After covering the spread in five of seven games, the Chargers are 0-2 ATS the last two weeks and 7-5 on the season.

Line Movement

The Dolphins opened as 3-point road favorites, but the best online sportsbooks have ticked the odds up to Miami -3.5. The Chargers moneyline odds are anywhere between +145 and +155. The over-under point total opened at 51.5 before a bump to 52 as bookmakers believe defense will be optional in this contest. The OVER has hit in seven of the Chargers last nine home games and four of the Dolphins last five games.

The Dolphins odds to win Super Bowl 57 remain steady at 16-to-1, while the Chargers recent struggles in a loaded AFC have watched their odds dip to 66-to-1.

Dolphins News and Notes

• Tua tweaked his ankle towards the end of the 49ers game, but is expected to start Sunday night.
  • His two interceptions at San Francisco were his first since September.
• Prior to their loss to the Niners, Miami had won five straight by a margin of 10 points per contest. However, those wins came against:
  • Steelers, in one of Kenny Pickett’s first starts
  • Lions, which required a double-digit comeback
  • A 3-point win over the Bears
  • Shellacking of the Browns defense
  • Shellacking of the Texans defense
• Miami lost time of possession 2-to-1, were 0-7 on third down and turned the ball over four times against San Francisco.
• The Dolphins defense ranks 28^th in opponent red zone conversion rate. Opposing offense have scored touchdowns on 64% of their trips inside Miami’s 20-yard line.
  • Goods new for them is the Chargers offense ranks in the bottom 10 in red zone efficiency.
• Prior to the Week 13 loss, the Dolphins had scored 30+ points in four straight games.
  • The Chargers allow 25.8 points per game, third-most in the NFL.
  • Over their past three games, the defense has allowed 27 points per game.
• Keep an eye on the injury report to see if o-linemen Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson return this week. They missed the 49ers game and it definitely stunted the running game.
  • The Chargers rush defense is woeful as it allows a league-high 5.4 per carry.
  • Josh Jacobs just averaged 5.5 YPR on 26 carries.
  • Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson must be licking their chops.
• Note: Miami did not travel back from San Francisco and will be staying in California this week to practice.

Chargers News and Notes

• The Raiders, who rank 31^st in sack percentage heading into Week 13, hit Justin Herbert 14 times and sacked him five times. The Chargers o-line might get Herbert injured (again). Remember, his shoulder got smashed earlier in the season.
  • The Chargers have allowed a league-high 4.7 sacks per game over the past three weeks.
  • The Dolphins pass rush has averaged 4.0 sacks per game over the past three weeks, 3^rd in NFL.
• The Chargers six wins deserve closer inspection:
  • Raiders by 5 (losing record)
  • Texans by 10 (losing record)
  • Browns by 2 (losing record)
  • Broncos by 3 (losing record)
  • Falcons by 3 (losing record)
  • Cardinals by 1 (losing record)
  • This is sub-optimal
• Classic Keenan Allen returned for the Chargers in Week 13
  • He caught six passes on 14 targets for 88 yards with a touchdown. He’s scored in back-to-back games.
  • Fellow receiver Mike Williams is questionable this week with an ankle. He’s missed the last two games.
• The Chargers defense allows 6.1 yards per play, second-most in the NFL ahead of only the Lions.

Betting Pick: Dolphins -3.5 (some got Dolphins -3, which is obviously delicious)

The Chargers needed a late-game rally to beat a reeling Cardinals team and followed that up with a bad loss to the Raiders where defense was optional and red zone efficiency was absent. So long as Tua’s ankle holds up for all four quarters, the Dolphins are head and shoulders above where the Chargers are right now. Chalk the 49ers game up to a fluke performance against the most elite defense in the NFL and watch Tua cook the SoFi secondary.