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Over the years the quarterback position has varied in value in fantasy football drafts, but the past few seasons have set the bar high for minimum starter value, as last year five fantasy QBs scored 319+ points and fourteen scored 250 or more points.

This means there is plenty of quality depth, but given that Josh Allen, the No. 1 QB in fantasy last season, outscored Russell Wilson, the No. 12 QB (and thus final starter-caliber player at this position) by nearly 140 points, it's imperative for fantasy managers to get the best return on investment here.

Doing that requires proper draft value calibration, and this article aims to assist in this area by not only ranking the quarterbacks, but also by providing draft strategies for each color-coded quarterback tier.

Quarterback tiers

Let's start by establishing my rankings parameters. My draft guide (available here) has five color-coded ranking tiers: blue, green, yellow, orange, and red.

The blue tier is for elite fantasy prospects. Green indicates a strong starter, while yellow indicates a solid deep league starter who is better suited as a backup in most leagues. An orange rating designates that player as only viable as a backup in deep leagues, while a red rating indicates the player should not be rostered outside of very rare league types.

Having noted this, let's start by listing my blue-rated quarterbacks.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

This is the group that can be expected to score 300+ points this season, so any of them are great starters, but when ADP is considered, this tier really breaks down into two categories.

Allen, Mahomes, and Hurts make up the first category, as their current consensus ADP values (per Football Pros) are in the second or third round. This is in general too high of a draft day price to pay, as Allen has an unproven receiving corps that could end up mediocre if things don't go well, Mahomes has finished fourth or lower in season-ending QB scoring in four of the past five years, and Hurts could lose much of his goal line rushing value to Saquon Barkley.

That leaves Jackson and Love as the go-to players if you want to invest in a blue-rated quarterback, as Jackson's current ADP is 42 (or a fourth-round pick in a 12-team league), while Love weighs in as a total bargain with an ADP of 73 (which equates to the border of Rounds 6-7). Because of this low ADP, Love is the preferred selection among the blue-rated quarterbacks, but before making that call, let's take a look at the green-rated tier to see the best ROI candidates at that level.

Here are the green-rated quarterbacks (starting with their overall QB positional ranking).

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

All but one of these quarterbacks has an ADP from early in Round 5 to early in Round 7, so there is generally equivalent value in this tier.

That's not to say that all things are equal here, with Anthony Richardson having the greatest potential to be an outlier in this group. Here's why. Last season, Richardson averaged 8.9 rush PPG, a mark that would have ranked highest in the league had he tallied enough carries to be listed as a qualifier.

When a fantasy QB hits that level of rushing production, it doesn't take much in the passing game to post 20+ points, so Richardson ranks fifth in upside grade at this position and thus may be worth his No. 52 ADP.

The other possible outlier here is Daniels, as he also has fantastic rushing skills. Daniels is the only FBS player to ever post 12,000 passing yards and 3,000 rushing yards in a career, and he is one of only 18 LSU players to rush for 2,000+ yards despite having played only two seasons in Death Valley. Daniels is currently listed with an ADP of 104, which makes him a ninth-round selection on average and a possible mid-draft day steal.

The next tier is the yellow-rated quarterbacks. These are usually seen as backups, but there is more than a bit of viable start value here, especially considering the relatively low ADPs these players have.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

The toughest player to rank in this group had to be Williams, as the Bears have the highest matchup points total for this position (a perfect 100 score) and have the makings of an incredible receiving corps in DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, and Cole Kmet. Combine that with Williams' rushing potential (he scored 27 rush TDs at USC, including 10+ in each of his last two years there) and Williams could be a tremendous ninth-round value.

Williams, Lawrence, Goff, and Watson are the only four out of this group who have green-rated upside scores (meaning they could post strong starter-caliber point totals if things go well this year). This means to be wary of relying too strongly on Herbert, Rodgers, Tagovailoa, or Stafford, as their yellow-rated upside scores indicate low scoring ceilings even under favorable circumstances.

Add this all up and it shows whether you want to play for upside with a blue-rated QB, work the percentages via a green-rated candidate, or put your faith in a low-cost yellow-rated field general, there are many paths to fantasy success at the quarterback position this season.