Week 8 of the college football kicks off tonight as we have a Wednesday night Fun Belt matchup between the Georgia State Panthers and the Appalachian State Mountaineers. The game is scheduled to start at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

It was a bad Week 7 for your boy as I lost my first-weekday college football bet I think ever, and then Saturday was a minefield. Outside of Tennessee covering, I really gave yall nothing but losers, and for that, I apologize. To make it up to you, I have officially decided that my best bet for tonight will not lose.

The Sun Belt always produces great matchups, especially during weekday games. Tonight should be no different as we have two exciting offenses going up against two bad defenses. That is always the recipe for a great Wednesday night game.

Anyway, let's get straight into the pick for this game. If you decide to follow our picks, we ask that you do so responsibly. 

*Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

 

Oct. 19, 7:00 p.m.

Spread

ML

Total

Georgia State

+9.5 (-110)

+280

O 60 (-110)

App State

-9.5 (-110)

-350

U 60 (-110)

 

Georgia State:

 

The Panthers have not been very good this year, but back-to-back wins over Army and Georgia Southern have given this team a little momentum after starting the year 0-4, and they have a clear, effective offensive strategy.

Georgia State leads the Sun Belt in rushing yards per game, and nationally they rank seventh in rushes per game, 13th in rushing yards per game (234.3), and 26th in yards per rush (5.0). Over their last two games, they are averaging 317 rushing yards per game, and their leading rushers, Jamyest Williams and Tucker Gregg have combined for 863 yards on just 169 attempts with eight touchdowns on the season.

Starting quarterback Darren Grainger is also a threat with his legs, as he has 303 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the season, which is actually down from last year's pace, but this team has a lot of athletism in the backfield, which is not always a good thing when you need to put together a few scoring drives but can be a pain in the ass to defend. However, Grainger is eighth in the country with 14.6 YPC and has 12 touchdown passes to only five interceptions on the season.

Defensively, this unit is, as they say, awful. They are giving up 33.3 points per game, 5.9 yards per rush, and they are allowing teams to convert on 48% of their third downs, which is 121st in the country. While the defense is ranked 47th in finishing drives, allowing teams to move the chains at such a high clip is brutal for a run-first team.

They are also ranked 114th in rush success. 112th in pass success, 98th in line yards, and 123rd in tackling by PFF. This unit is not underperforming either, they are just bad, and they may be in for a long night against this App State offense.

 

Appalachian State:

 

Like the Panthers, App State likes to run the ball, but unlike the Panthers, App State can actually rely on their passing game. For a year and a half now, Chase Brice has come in and made this a solid, and effective offense (in a Sun Belt sense). He has 18 touchdowns to only three interceptions with a 65.8% completion percentage, and this passing attack is picking up 7.1 yards per pass and is ranked 30th in passing yards per game (284)

While this is still a run-first team with Camerun Peoples leading the way while Nate Noel continues to rehab an early injury, the Neers' are ranked 47th in pass success compared to 67th in rush success. Either way, it probably won't matter how they win this game, because this defense they're going up against is just not good on any level.

Still, I am not going to act like App State is just going to walk into this game and coast. There are still some concerns with their defense as they are ranked 107th in pass success, 97th in finishing drives, and 80th in tackling according to PFF. However, they are very good against the run, allowing only 3.8 yards per carry and ranking 39th in rush success and 13th in line yards.

If they were going up against a more effective passing team, I would be all over the other side, but Georgia State does not scare me through the air, and App State is actually pretty good at getting to the quarterback, ranking 27th in pass rush and 33rd in sack %.

 

The Pick:

 

The total has gone over in five of the last seven games for App State and twice in their last three against Georgia State. While both teams like to run the ball, both teams are putting up about 30 points per game, and they are scoring just over 0.4 points per play, which means we can get some big-chunk touchdowns to save us some time, and put some points on the board.

I also am not a fan of both of these defenses, especially App State's secondary. If this game goes how I believe it will go, with App State pounding the life out of this bad Georgia State defense, the Panthers are going to have to pass the ball to stay in it, which is favorable considering the Neers' have one of the worst pass-defenses in the FBS.

If you cannot tell, I like both of these offenses and hate both of these defenses. I think you know what that means.

Pick: Over 60 (-110)

 

Photo Credit: Embed from Getty Images