The Packers are nearly double-digit underdogs against the Rams?!? I don’t care how well Los Angeles has played this year, how can the Rams be that big a favorite vs. Green Bay, especially since the Packers are coming off a bye and have played better in the past few weeks?

Well, maybe it’s because the Rams are the best team in the league.

After all, they are the NFL’s third-best squad in points scored, the fourth-best in points allowed, fifth in turnover differential, eighth in passing yards per game, first in rushing yards per game, and eighth in rushing yards allowed. That’s some remarkable balance.

On offense, Jared Goff has slightly better stats than Aaron Rodgers this year, and running back Todd Gurley has scored a total of 14 touchdowns to go with 956 total yards from scrimmage (he also leads the league in a plethora of offensive categories). The defense, meanwhile, does its part with Aaron Donald collecting an NFL-high eight sacks, and safety John Johnson has picked off three interception, tied for No. 1 in the league.

It’s just a damn good squad that nobody has beaten yet. But don’t expect Los Angeles to go undefeated. After Green Bay, it’ll face New Orleans, Seattle and Kansas in its next three games before the Rams get to their bye week. Somebody will beat them along the way. For this week, I’m not sure the Rams can cover nine points vs. Green Bay—even in the friendly confines of Los Angeles—but once again, they’ll end up winning. Now, on to the Week 8 picks.

1)Bet your life savings on this game *

Patriots at Bills

These teams can play 100 times, and I’ll bet my life savings on New England winning this game in 99 of them. The first line I saw was the Bills +13 at home, and that apparently wasn’t enough for many bettors who still put their money on New England. As of this writing, the line has moved to Buffalo +14, and I’d still put my money on the Patriots for that spread—I bet if Nathan Peterman was starting at quarterback for the Bills instead of Derek Anderson, the line could be as much as +17. Buffalo has proved twice this year that it can strike when least expected and pick up victories, and there’s some comfort that Anderson and not Peterman will be starting (and remember Anderson is a guy who’s coming off a 37-5 loss where he tossed three picks!). But yeah, Buffalo is terrible—especially if LeSean McCoy can’t clear concussion protocol—and New England is New England. So, really, this is an easy call.

Straight up: Patriots Against the spread: Patriots -14

2018 record for the “Bet your life savings” game: 6-1 S/U and 5-2 ATS 2017-18 record: 20-6 S/U and 14-12 ATS

2) This game scares the hell out of me

Ravens at Panthers

In the tough NFC South, the Panthers are holding steady in second place with a 4-2 record, and if they can get their offense in gear on a consistent basis, this is a team that could be a tough squad to play in January. The Panthers have shown signs of that in the past few games, but they’ll have to accomplish that again this week against a Ravens squad that has the best defense in the league. This is a tough matchup to predict, but here’s why I like Carolina: the fourth quarter of last week’s win vs. the Eagles. The Panthers racked up more than 200 passing yards and 21 points in the final 15 minutes of the game, and they’ll use that momentum to get off to a quick start (and an eventual victory) vs. Baltimore. I typically don’t enjoy picking home underdogs, but I’ll do it here.

Straight up: Panthers Against the spread: Panthers +2

2018 record for “This game scares the hell out of me:” 5-2 S/U and 4-3 ATS 2017-18 record: 15-11 S/U and 14-11-1 ATS

3) Fun game of the week

Seahawks at Lions

If Detroit can get its running game going and take some of the pressure of Matthew Stafford, this is a squad that can compete for an NFC North title. We saw it in last week’s 11-point victory at Miami. Rookie Kerryon Johnson (6.4 yards per carry so far this season) rushed for a career-high 158 yards and LeGarrette Blount added 50 more. Suddenly, Stafford only had to do a portion of the work, throwing for 217 yards and two touchdowns on 22 attempts (the fewest amount of passes he’s thrown in a game since Week 2 of 2017). As a result, Detroit gained a season-high 457 yards and scored a season-high 32 points. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have a top-five defense. Though Seattle is coming off a bye, I like the Lions to cover here. I’m starting to believe in them.

Straight up: Lions Against the spread: Lions -3

2018 record for the “Fun game of the week”: 4-3 S/U and 3-3-1 ATS 2017-18 record: 17-9 S/U and 13-11-2 ATS 2018 record for every game picked in this column: 15-6 S/U and 12-8-1 ATS 2017-2018 record for every game picked in this column: 52-26 S/U and 41-34-3 ATS 2018 overall record on Pickwatch: 66-39 S/U and 52-50 ATS

- S/U ATS

HOU over MIA MIA +7.5
PHI over JAX JAX +3
CHI over NYJ NYJ +7
CIN over TB CIN -4.5
DET over SEA DET -3
KC over DEN DEN +10
WAS over NYG WAS -1
PIT over CLE CLE +8
CAR over BAL CAR -2
OAK over IND OAK +3
LAR over GB GB +9
SF over ARI SF +1
MIN over NO MIN -1
NE over BUF BUF +14
*Don’t really bet your life savings. Please.

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