The fantasy football season has begun and that means fantasy football managers are looking for every edge that they can get in upgrading their teams and starting the best lineup.

I’ve been writing about fantasy football for over 20 years now (including 14 years at ESPN and four years at The Athletic) and am now adding NFL Pickwatch to that list, as I will be posting a weekly fantasy football notes article every week that is exclusively available to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.

We've got a lot to cover, so let's get started!

The Thursday Night Game Turned Into The Isaiah Likely Show

Let’s kick this week’s edition off by talking about Baltimore tight end Isaiah Likely, who dominated the Chiefs defense to the tune of nine receptions for 111 yards, one touchdown and 26.1 PPR points.

As long as the late game injury that Likely suffered doesn’t impact his availability (and since he nearly caught the game-tying touchdown pass not long after that, it’s not likely to), be sure to place him at or near the top of your waiver picks next week. Likely finished last year with three games of 18+ PPR points and this season opener indicates that Baltimore is going to utilize him in such a way that there may be many more 18+ point games in his near future.

Likely is currently rostered in only nine percent of ESPN leagues, so that advice should apply to most fantasy managers. Those who are in FAAB leagues should consider placing a notable investment in him, as early season pickups are always worth paying more for since you can get longer term bang for the buck out of them.

Rules of Thumb for Week 1

Now let’s get moving on some Week 1 future analysis. Before doing that, keep in mind the first rule of Week 1 for fantasy football, which is don’t overthink your matchups! You drafted the best team possible, and with rare exceptions those top players will be the best players for your Week 1 lineup. The outlook for those players may change after a couple of weeks, but this is a time to trust the volume of research you did headed into drafts.

Another rule of thumb for Week 1 is to apply the mindset that many successful NFL general managers do, which is to break down the season into four segments and only judge the performance of the team after the end of one of those segments.

Applying this to the fantasy football world means that you really shouldn’t get too high or low following a Week 1 win and should instead view this as a partial barometer for how strong your roster is from top to bottom. If you do the same thing while viewing your competitors’ rosters, it may help you identify potential favorable trades that you can make to upgrade your team and benefit from your opponents overthinking their Week 1 results.

Keep an Eye on These Running Back Situations

One thing that you will want to do during Sunday’s games is pay attention to how the workload distributions are playing out on teams that have unsettled running back depth charts. Denver, Minnesota, Miami, Seattle, Tennessee, Dallas, and Washington all have workload splits that could be much different than played out during fantasy drafts and that can provide you with plenty of upside potential.

Savvy fantasy managers can also get ahead of the curve by rostering Jaleel McLaughlin, Ty Chandler, or Rico Dowdle are available, as any or all of this trio (each of whom is currently available in 40+ percent of ESPN leagues) may see their fantasy values skyrocket after Sunday if their usage rates increase.

Potential Week 1 Longshot Upside Plays

Here are some players you may want to consider getting into lineups if you are looking for some Week 1 longshot upside plays.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Los Angeles Chargers

Dobbins has been a great breakaway threat when healthy, and multiple reports out of Los Angeles have indicated he is back to full speed following last year’s Achilles’ injury. The Raiders rush defense also provides Dobbins with what should be a favorable matchup.

Ray Davis, RB, Buffalo Bills

The Bills drafted Davis with the idea that he could be the goal line back. Taking over that role would help James Cook, whose frame isn’t suited for goal line duty and would also keep Josh Allen from taking too much wear and tear. The Cardinals rush defense was subpar last season and if Davis gets that goal line role this week, it may result in a touchdown or two.

Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Charbonnet is the lightning back in the Seattle backfield, but with the Seahawks going more run-heavy this year under new head coach Mike Macdonald, Charbonnet may end up with a platoon-caliber carry volume. The matchup against Denver’s run defense is quite favorable, so that relatively high volume of rush attempts may begin as early as this week.

Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers

Freiermuth has a low-end TE1/high-end TE2 fantasy scoring profile in general, but this week he has what looks to be a very favorable coverage matchup against the Atlanta secondary. Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has plenty of playbook pages dedicated to tight end aerials and that combination could result in Freiermuth having one of the best fantasy point totals among tight ends this week.