NFL Pickwatch - Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat Player Props, Picks and Predictions

Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 12/4/2024 7:30 PM EST

We have your Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Los Angeles Lakers hit the road to face the Miami Heat.

Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat Odds Info

Best Moneyline Odds: Los Angeles Lakers +110 (bet365) / Miami Heat -125 (DraftKings)
Best Spread Odds: -2.5 - Los Angeles Lakers -115 (BetMGM) / -1.5 - Miami Heat -112 (FanDuel)
Best Total Odds: 216.5 - Under -105 (BetMGM) / Over -115 (BetMGM)

Special offers available for this game

Underdog: Free Pick for NEW Customers: Lebron James Total Points > 0.5

Game Info

Date: 12/4/2024
Time: 7:30 PM EST
Location: Kaseya Center (Miami, FL)
TV: NBA TV

Los Angeles Lakers Betting Trends

On the road, the Los Angeles Lakers have 5 wins and 6 losses this season.
As the favorite, the Los Angeles Lakers have 1 wins and 6 losses this season.
This season, the Los Angeles Lakers have hit 9 overs and 12 unders.

Miami Heat Betting Trends

At home, the Miami Heat have 4 wins and 4 losses this season.
As the favorite, the Miami Heat have 7 wins and 5 losses this season.
This season, the Miami Heat have hit 10 overs and 9 unders.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Over the past three seasons, the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat have faced each other four times. In these matchups, the Miami Heat emerged victorious in three games, while the Los Angeles Lakers secured a win in one. The home team has generally had the upper hand, winning three out of the four games, with the visiting team managing just one victory. When it comes to covering the spread, both teams have done so twice. Notably, none of these games have gone over the projected total points, with all four games finishing under the set over-under line.

The most recent encounter between these two teams took place on January 3, 2024, where the Miami Heat defeated the Los Angeles Lakers with a final score of 110-96. Miami was favored with a point spread of -4.5 and successfully covered it, winning by a margin of 14 points. The Heat's victory was driven by strong performances from Tyler Herro, who scored 21 points, and Bam Adebayo, who added 15 points and 7 rebounds. The Lakers struggled with their shooting, particularly from beyond the arc, finishing with a three-point percentage of just 13.3%. Anthony Davis led the Lakers with 29 points and 17 rebounds, but the team's 22 turnovers proved costly, as Miami capitalized by scoring 22 points off those turnovers.

In terms of shooting efficiency, the Miami Heat had a field goal percentage of 44.1% and a three-point percentage of 38.1% in the latest game. They also demonstrated effective ball movement, recording 30 assists. On the other hand, the Lakers had a field goal percentage of 42.2% and struggled significantly from three-point range. Despite their rebounding advantage, with 50 total rebounds compared to Miami's 39, the Lakers' inability to convert from long range and their turnover issues were critical factors in their defeat. The game concluded with a total score of 206 points, falling well below the over-under line of 229, continuing the trend of unders in their recent matchups.

Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat Preview

The Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat are set to clash in a highly anticipated matchup at the Kaseya Center. Both teams have had their share of struggles this season, with the Lakers holding a 12-9 record and the Heat at 9-10. Despite their inconsistent performances, this game promises to be an intriguing battle, especially given the history between these two franchises.

The Lakers come into this game after a tough loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves, where they were outplayed on both ends of the floor. LeBron James, who has been a pivotal figure for the Lakers, has shown signs of aging but remains a key contributor with averages of 22.0 points, 9.1 assists, and 8.0 rebounds per game. Anthony Davis has been a standout performer, leading the team in scoring and rebounding, but the Lakers have struggled with defensive efficiency, ranking 24th in the league. Their transition defense has been particularly problematic, allowing opponents to score at a high rate.

On the other side, the Miami Heat are looking to bounce back from a significant loss to the Boston Celtics. The potential absence of Jimmy Butler, who is questionable with knee soreness, could impact their performance. Tyler Herro has been a bright spot for the Heat, leading the team in scoring and providing a consistent offensive threat. Bam Adebayo, while not as prolific offensively as in previous seasons, continues to be a defensive anchor for Miami. The Heat's defense has been a strong point, ranking sixth in scoring defense, but their offense has been less consistent.

Both teams have key players listed as questionable, which could influence the dynamics of the game. The Lakers' Austin Reaves and Jalen Hood-Schifino are uncertain to play, while the Heat's Kevin Love and Josh Richardson are also on the injury report. The matchup between Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo will be a focal point, as both big men are known for their defensive prowess and ability to impact the game on both ends of the floor.

As the Lakers and Heat prepare to face off, the game is expected to be a close contest, with Miami slightly favored. The outcome may hinge on which team can better capitalize on their strengths and mitigate their weaknesses. With both teams eager to improve their standings, this matchup is set to be a compelling chapter in their ongoing rivalry.

Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat Pick: Total Points Over

As the Los Angeles Lakers prepare to face the Miami Heat, the over/under line is set at 216.5 total points. Despite both teams experiencing inconsistencies this season, there are compelling reasons to anticipate a high-scoring affair in this matchup. The Lakers, while struggling defensively, have shown offensive prowess, particularly in the halfcourt. They rank 17th in points per 100 possessions, averaging 112.3, and have been effective in generating scoring opportunities through their offensive sets. LeBron James and Anthony Davis continue to be key contributors, with Davis leading the team in scoring at 27.8 points per game.

On the other hand, the Miami Heat, despite their defensive strengths, have vulnerabilities that the Lakers can exploit. Miami ranks 16th in adjusted net rating and has allowed opponents to capitalize on their defensive lapses. The Heat's offense, led by Tyler Herro, who averages 23.7 points per game, has the potential to keep pace with the Lakers. Herro's ability to score from beyond the arc, making 4.1 three-pointers per game at a 40.7% clip, adds a significant threat to Miami's offensive arsenal.

Both teams have shown tendencies to hit the over in their games this season. The Lakers have hit the over in 9 of their 21 games, while the Heat have done so in 10 of their 19 contests. Additionally, the Lakers' defensive struggles, particularly in transition where they allow 140.1 points per 100 plays, could lead to a higher-scoring game as Miami looks to exploit these weaknesses. The Heat's ability to make 14.6 three-pointers per game, the ninth most in the league, further supports the potential for a high-scoring matchup.

Given these factors, the combination of the Lakers' offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities, along with the Heat's scoring potential and three-point shooting, suggests that the total points over is a strong pick for this game. Both teams are eager to improve their standings, and this motivation could lead to an offensive showcase at the Kaseya Center.

Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat Top Player Prop Picks

Anthony Davis Over 12.5 Rebounds -104 (FanDuel)

Anthony Davis has been a dominant force on the boards this season, averaging 11.5 rebounds per game, which ranks him among the top rebounders in the league. In the upcoming matchup against the Miami Heat, Davis's rebounding prowess will be crucial, especially given the Lakers' struggles in other areas. The Heat, while strong defensively, have shown vulnerabilities in rebounding, as evidenced by their recent performances. With Davis's ability to control the glass and the Lakers' need to capitalize on second-chance opportunities, taking the over on 12.5 rebounds for Davis presents a strong value. His recent performances, including a 17-rebound game against Miami earlier this year, further bolster the case for this prop.

Tyler Herro Over 3.5 3Fgm -120 (BetRivers)

Tyler Herro has been a consistent offensive threat for the Miami Heat, leading the team with 23.7 points per game and showcasing his sharpshooting ability from beyond the arc. Herro is making 4.1 three-pointers per game on 9.9 attempts, shooting at an impressive 40.7% clip. Against a Lakers team that ranks poorly in defensive efficiency and struggles to defend the perimeter, Herro's three-point shooting will be a key factor. The Lakers' transition defense issues could also provide Herro with additional open looks from deep. Given his recent form and the Lakers' defensive lapses, the over on 3.5 made threes is a compelling pick.

LeBron James Over 7.5 Rebounds -127 (BetRivers)

LeBron James continues to be a pivotal player for the Lakers, contributing significantly across various statistical categories. Averaging 8.0 rebounds per game, James's ability to impact the game on the boards remains vital for the Lakers, especially in a matchup against the Heat, who have shown inconsistencies in rebounding. With the potential absence of key players like Jimmy Butler, the Heat may struggle to contain James's physical presence. Additionally, the Lakers' need to improve their defensive rebounding to mitigate Miami's second-chance opportunities makes James's over on 7.5 rebounds a strong proposition. His experience and determination to lead the Lakers in crucial matchups further support this pick.