Aside from the well-documented kicking woes of Brett Maher, the Cowboys dominated the Buccaneers in every other facet of their Wild Card matchup. Their 31-14 blowout win at Tampa Bay improved their against the spread record to 11-7 and 5-4 ATS away from AT&T Stadium

Seattle's 17-point second quarter made things interesting in the 49ers Wild Card game. However, Brock Purdy's four total touchdowns and San Francisco's 25 second half points allowed for the NFC's No. 2 seed to survive and advance via a 41-23 victory. 

Line Movement

The 49ers opened as 3.5-point home favorites, but the line has bounced between San Francisco -4 and -3.5 the past few days at the best online sportsbooks we track. The Cowboys moneyline odds are around +165. The over-under point total opened at 46, but the consensus ticked up to O/U 46.5. The OVER has hit in six of the 49ers past seven games.

San Francisco has covered in six straight games.

The UNDER has cashed in four of the Cowboys past five road games.

Cowboys News and Notes

• Despite missing four extra points in the win over the Buccaneers, the Cowboys are sticking with Brett Maher for the divisional playoff matchup.
  • However, they did sign Tristan Vizcaino as insurance should the yips continue.
• By completing better than 75% of his passes and tossing four touchdowns in the win over the Bucs, Dak Prescott posted a season-high 143.3 passer rating.
  • It was also the first time since November 20th that he did not throw one interception.
  • San Francisco's defense averages 1.2 interceptions per game (2nd)
• Offensive lineman Jason Peters remains questionable for Sunday due to a hip injury suffered in win over Tampa Bay.
  • Safety Jayron Kearse was limited with a knee injury.
•  It appears that 27-year-old Ezekiel Elliott's best days are behind him:
  • Elliott vs. TB: 2.7 YPR on 13 attempts
  • Tony Pollard vs TB: 5.1 YPR on 15 attempts
  • SF rush defense 79.2 RYAPG (2nd) and 3.4 RYPA 

Key Performance Indicators Head-to-Head

The KPI stats below are why NFL games are not played on paper. While both the Cowboys and 49ers excel on third downs and keep the chains moving, San Francisco's red zone defense doesn't appear so elite. However, the 57.5% opponent conversion rate comes on a league-low 2.2 red zone trips allowed per game. In other words, one red zone touchdown allowed per game (on average).

It sounds cliche, but the battle in the trenches will likely determine the outcome of this game. Both the Cowboys and 49ers front seven will get to the opposing quarterback. It will be interesting to see how Brock Purdy responds as he's been sacked 3-or-more times in three games since taking over as starter.

49ers News and Notes

• The 49ers are 8-1 against the spread as home favorites. They failed to cover as 8-point home favorites against the Chargers in a 22-16 win.
• The last time San Francisco lost a game was eight days before Halloween.
  • They've won 11 consecutive games by an average margin of 16.3 points per win.
  • Of the 11 wins, five came against playoff teams and includes the Wild Card win over Seattle.
  • They've scored 30-or-more points in eight of the 11 wins.
    • Cowboys allow 19.9 points per game.
• George Kittle has thrived with Brock Purdy behind center. He caught seven touchdowns in the 49ers last four games of the regular season.
  • He was held to two catches for 37 yards against the Seahawks.
  • Cowboys rank sixth in receiving yards allowed to opposing tight ends.
• Sunday SF Forecast: Temps in the mid-50s, no rain with light winds.

Betting Pick: 49ers -3.5 / -4, OVER 46.5

Dak is a top 10 quarterback in this league, but even he regresses to the mean more often than not. I think the 49ers pass rush causes Prescott trouble and the lack of running game forces the Cowboys to pass more often than they would like. While there is more tape on Brock Purdy to exposes weaknesses, the Niners defense helps him get over and advance to the NFC Championship.