The Cowboys wrapped up the 2022 regular season with a 12-5 record, 10-7 against the spread, 4-4 ATS on the road and 2-3 ATS as road favorites.

Tampa Bay won the NFC South with an 8-9 record. The Buccaneers were a league-worst 4-12 against the spread, 1-6-1 ATS in home games and 0-1 ATS as home underdogs as it was evident bookmakers failed to fully grasp and adapt to the offensive regression.

Line Movement

The Cowboys opened as 3.5-point road favorites, but the line has since moved to Dallas -2.5 at the best online sportsbooks we track. The Buccaneers moneyline odds are around +120. The over-under point total opened at 44.5, but the consensus is now more like O/U 45.5. The OVER has cashed in four of the Buccaneers last five and in five of the Cowboys last seven games.

Previous Meeting

The Cowboys hosted the Buccaneers back in Week 1 of the 2022 regular season. Though Dallas not only lost the game 19-3 and Dak Prescott to a thumb injury, Tampa Bay's lethargic offense-to-come was on full display; though we didn't know just how bad it was at the time.

Tom Brady completed just 18 passes for 212 yards with an interception and touchdown, the offense converted a paltry 5-of-14 third downs and converted only 1-of-3 red zone trips into scores. Tampa Bay's 5.6 yards per play in the win was actually higher than their season average of 5.1 YPP.

Cowboys News and Notes

• Since returning from his thumb injury, Dak Prescott has tossed 14 interceptions in 11 games.
  • The good news for Dak is Tampa Bay's secondary has only 10 interceptions in 17 regular season games - ranked 26th.
• This needs to be a Zeke Elliott-Tony Pollard running back by committee team effort to move the chains.
  • Though they don't pick off a lot of passes, Tampa Bay's secondary is top 10, compared to its rush defense which ranks in the middle of the pack and allows 4.5 yards per carry.
  • Another way to read this: Prescott does NOT need to win this game with his arm and shouldn't try.
• If you're looking for a player prop bet value play, keep tight end Dalton Schultz in mind.
  • The Buccaneers allowed nine touchdowns to opposing tight ends this season and Schultz caught seven passes for 62 yards in Week 1.
• Injury updates: head coach Mike McCarthy said three key players could return from injury in time for Wild Card Monday: linebacker Leighton Vander Esch, center Tyler Biadasz and defensive lineman Johnathan Hankins.

Key Performance Indicators Head-to-Head

The Cowboys are averaging 3.3 red zone trips per game this season and converting 71.4% of those into touchdowns. If Tampa Bay can't keep Dallas outside their own 20-yard-line, their 26th-ranked red zone defense could be exposed early and often. Tom Brady's offense cannot allow this matchup to turn into a track meet. Slow and methodical is the only way the Buccaneers pull off the upset.

Buccaneers News and Notes

• A Tom Brady-led offense - loaded at the receiver position - is outside the top 20 in 3rd down and red zone conversion rate. The Achilles' heel: the running game.
  • It ranks dead last in rush yards per attempt and rush yards per game.
• So, we turn our attention to Brady versus the Cowboys pass defense:
  • Dallas allows 200.9 passing yards per game.
  • The defense sacked Brady twice in Week 1 and average 3.2 per game. The Buccaneers o-line yielded just 22 sacks in 17 games - first in the NFL.
• For as mediocre as Brady has looked this season, with the NFC South on the line, he went out and carved up an above-average Panthers defense for 432 yards and three touchdowns. If anything gives me pause about fading the Buccaneers +2.5 / +3, it's that game.
  • All three TDs were to Mike Evans of 63, 57 and 30 yards, respectively. All or nothing.

Betting Pick: Cowboys -2.5, OVER 45.5

Out of all the games this weekend, this would be the one to fade. I like the Bills, Jaguars, 49ers, Vikings and Bengals to take care of business.

While Dak has been far from crisp down the stretch, Dallas possesses too much talent on both sides of the ball to go into Tampa Bay and be pushed around. A solid and consistent pass rush of Tom Brady will go a long way to knocking the Buccaneers off balance. It hasn't taken much this year - all you need is a little shove and Tampa Bay's offense will wilt under pressure.

Prescott shouldn't be the one to win this game, but he can definitely lose it for Dallas backers. Deep breath, here we go.