Behind Trevor Lawrence’s 300+ passing yards and four touchdowns, the Jaguars outscored the Cowboys 33-13 in the second half and overtime to rally and beat Dallas 40-34 in OT. Jacksonville improved to 6-8 overall and 6-8 against the spread after covering +4 as home dogs.

A busted coverage on 4^th-and-one in the game’s final minutes cost the Jets a much-needed win at home as New York fell to the Lions 20-17 in Week 15. The J-E-T-S fell to 7-7 overall and 8-6 against the spread as they failed to cover as 2-point home favorites in Zach Wilson first start in several weeks.

Line Movement

The Jets opened as 2.5-point home favorites, but the consensus line has ticked down as low as New York -1 at the best online sportsbooks we follow. The Jaguars moneyline odds are around even money in the proverbial pick’em Thursday night matchup. The over-under point total opened at 42, but some bookmakers have it pegged as O/U 39.5 in what is expected to be a defensive tussle on the short week. The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Jets last nine games, but as Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense has come alive, the total has gone OVER in four of Jacksonville’s last five games.

The Jaguars are up to EVEN money odds to win the AFC South.

Jets defensive back Sauce Gardner is the heavy favorite at -600 to win Defensive Player of the Year.

Jaguars News and Notes

• After starting the season 2-6, Jacksonville has won 3 of its last 4 and 4 of its last six games.
  • In their three most-recent victories, the Jaguars are averaging 34 points per game in wins over the Ravens, Titans and Cowboys.
• In those three wins, Trevor Lawrence has thrown 10 touchdowns and only one interception, while averaging 335 passing yards per game.
  • The Jets boast a top-five pass defense that has allowed just 180 pass yards per game over the past three weeks.
  • Plus, the weather is forecasted to be nasty Thursday night (see below).
• Offensive lineman Cam Robinson is out for the season due to a torn meniscus.
  • Jaguars allow the third fewest sacks per game this season.
  • Jets defense average the seventh-most sacks per game (2.8).
• The Jaguars have come back from 17+ points down twice this season. A win is a win, but it’s not the achievement Jacksonville wants to rely on weekly.
• Opposing offenses have converted a league high 57.9% of their third downs against the Jaguars defense over the past three weeks.
• Opposing offenses have converted a league high 90.9% of their red zone trips into touchdowns against the Jaguars defense the past three weeks.
  • Jacksonville has allowed 3.7 red zone trips over those past 3 games.
  • The Jets average 2.9 red zone trips per game.

Jets News and Notes

• MetLife Forecast for Thursday: temperatures in mid-40s with 99% chance of rain, heavy at times with wind gusts up to 24 mph.
• If it were up to Mike White, he would be the starting quarterback for the Jets Thursday night.
  • However, his rib injury is quite serious and head coach Robert Saleh told reporters Monday that White has “a lot of hurdles” to clear before returning.
• In his first start since before Thanksgiving, Zach Wilson competed just 18-of-35 passes, but did throw for 317 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.
  • Opposing quarterbacks have completed nearly 73% of their passes against the Jaguars over the past three games (Prescott, Tannehill, Goff).
• The Jets defense is the real deal:
  • They allow just 4.7 yards per play (ranks 3^rd)
  • Allow third-fewest total yards per game
  • Top 10 red zone defense
  • Opponents converting less than 35% of their third downs over past 3 weeks.
• New York has lost three straight games by an average margin of just 5.3 points.
  • They’ve lost four of five by an average margin of 5.8.

Betting Pick: UNDER 42.5, Jets -1.5

This is a nightmare game to handicap because both teams pick their moments to be a playoff contender, but wet conditions will play a factor. Lawrence and Jaguars dropped the ball at Detroit a few weeks ago and Zach Wilson's dual-personality of "having that dawg in him" and looking like franchise draft pick bust occur within the same 60-minute window. I'll take UNDER 42.5 with a splash on Jets -1.5 if you twist my arm. Think traveling on the short week, coming off emotional win against Dallas and missing key offensive linemen could cause some issues for T-Law and Jags.