NFL Pickwatch - NFL Playoff Power Rankings: Super Wild Card Weekend

As ESPN staff writer Bill Barnwell also pointed out earlier this week, three teams that finished the 2021 regular season with 5-or-fewer wins finished the 2022 regular season with a winning record. Two of those three qualified for the playoffs, the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants. The team left without a playoff chair were the Detroit Lions, but at 9-8, second-year head coach Dan Campbell has to be thrilled with the year-over-year growth he witnessed.

In fact, the Lions rank 5th in our final NFL power rankings of the regular season. They along with the Pittsburgh Steelers were the only two squads to crack our Top 10, but fail to earn a playoff berth. Here is how the rankings for all 14 NFL playoff teams shook out in our core-adjusted power rankings.

Postseason NFL Power Rankings	Team	Analysis
1	Philadelphia Eagles	Jalen Hurts earns most of the headlines, but do not sleep on the Eagles pass rush this postseason. They averaged 4.1 per game and 5.0 SPG over the final three weeks.
2	San Francisco 49ers	The Brock Purdy Mr. Irrelevant story will be made into a movie one day. However, do you really want your squad riding a 10-game winning streak into the postseason? Maybe with the 49ers elite defense, you do.
3	Kansas City Chiefs	For the fifth consecutive season of the Patrick Mahomes' era, the Chiefs won 12-or-more regular season games and are in the midst of a five-game winning streak. Note: if the Chiefs meet the Bills in the AFC Championship, the game will be played in Atlanta.
4	Buffalo Bills	Damar Hamlin appears to be on the road to recovery as the Bills road to the Super Bowl is a gauntlet of top-tier NFL quarterbacks that Josh Allen will need to outperform.
6	Cincinnati Bengals	No need for a coin flip to determine home field in the Wild Card round, but the Bengals caught a break missing Lamar Jackson (knee) for the second time in two weeks.
8	Jacksonville Jaguars	If not for a late-game fumble, scoop and score in Week 18, how would we define the Jaguars 2022 campaign: a success or mediocre?
9	Los Angeles Chargers	While I believe in Justin Herbert, what their wild card matchup will come down to is a leaky rush defense against Travis Etienne.
10	Dallas Cowboys	Dak Prescott's turnover miscues are what will determine whether or not the Cowboys escape Tampa Bay with a win.
12	Miami Dolphins	Not only will Tua miss this game, but his career is definitely under a microscope after sustaining so many concussions this season.
13	New York Giants	The G-Men are only in the playoffs because of a 6-2 start to the season, but their 31st ranked rush defense must contain Dalvin Cook or they are one and done.
15	Seattle Seahawks	Will need to find a way to give Geno Smith time in the pocket because Seattle's bread and butter - the running game - isn't going to beat this 49ers squad.
17	Minnesota Vikings	Set an NFL regular season record for most wins in one-score games and its defense allowed more points than its offense scored.
20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tom Brady and his Bucs may be limping into the playoffs, but I can't get over the 30-burger they hung on the Panthers defense two weeks ago.
24	Baltimore Ravens	What a difference a Lamar Jackson makes to this franchise. Remember, these are core rated power rankings over the past five weeks aka the Tyler Huntley / Anthony Brown show.

Note: these NFL power rankings are based on performance versus expected performance (opponent average) over the past five weeks and are statistically based rankings versus subjective NFL power rankings you can find in every corner of the internet these days.

Also: Read Week 18 Power Rankings

Non-Playoff Teams Power Rankings	Team	Analysis
5	Detroit Lions	The Lions offense converted 46.7% (31st) of their red zone trips into TDs in 2021 compared to 66.2% (4th) in 2022 regular seasons.
7	Pittsburgh Steelers	The Steelers ended the season on a 4-game winning streak in which its defense allowed just 13.3 points per game.
11	Carolina Panthers	Interim head coach Steve Wilks squeezed the most talent out of an underwhelming roster that lost a franchise running back at the trade deadline.
14	Green Bay Packers	Aaron Rodgers to the Raiders? Jordan Love era finally begins? Don't count on it as a lock.
16	New Orleans Saints	The Saints catch a break in 2023 by having to face a weak AFC South.
18	New England Patriots	Bill Belichick will return, but a new offensive coordinator will be tasked with improving one that ranked outside the top half of the league in most statistical categories.
19	Las Vegas Raiders	Are the Raiders a quarterback away from contending or do they need to rethink the entire operation as Derek Carr exits stage-right.
21	Atlanta Falcons	Silver lining on a 7-win season: rookie running back Tyler Allgeier rushed for more than 1,000 yards and the team got a good look on if Desmond Ridder will be their future.
22	Washington Commanders	Based on recent comments from the Commanders general manager, I'm not sure Carson Wentz is out of a job and that should scare the hell out of Washington fans.
23	Cleveland Browns	The Browns wasted the Joe Thomas years and are trying to avoid repeating the feat during the Myles Garrett era. Firing Joe Woods was a good start, but coach Kevin Stefanski needs to adapt to the team's strengths on offense.
25	New York Jets	Zach Wilson pledges to make Derek Carr's life hell in training camp.* *Carr-to-NYJ rumored
26	Denver Broncos	Need a head coach that can not only let Russ cook, but also, ya know, win more than five games with zero draft capital.
27	Arizona Cardinals	Kliff Kingsbury is out. Could DeAndre Hopkins reunite in Cleveland with Deshaun Watson?
28	Los Angeles Rams	The loss of Cooper Kupp proved he should be in the running for Most Valuable Player annually.
29	Houston Texans	Lovie Smith going for 2-point conversion and win to cost Houston the No. 1 pick on his way out the door was chef's kiss beautiful.
30	Tennessee Titans	Hi, I've been trying to contact you about your extended warranty on: Henry, Derrick.
31	Indianapolis Colts	Jeff Saturday claims to have a vision of what it will take to make the Colts contenders sooner rather than later. However, Andrew Luck 1.0 isn't walking through that door and they need to significantly upgrade the position.
32	Chicago Bears	The question becomes whether or not to build around Justin Fields and trade the No. 1 Draft pick or select the Bryce Youngs of the world first overall.