Over a quarter of the NFL turned over their coaches this offseason. If the past is any indicator (and it usually is), two thirds of those new coaches won’t last a full three years—the old adage is that N.F.L. truly stands for “not for long.”

It’s impossible to know which new head coach is going to be successful, but it’s not nearly as difficult to judge the processes of the teams hiring them.

We’ve talked about some of these, in part, in previous notebooks, but let’s get the whole lot down now and assign some preliminary grades to them. Again, the grades are not predictors of success, which can be determined by a lot of factors outside the coach’s control, but by the process teams went through and by how much the candidate’s resume might predict their success in their new home.

Chicago Bears Hire Matt Eberflus (Grade: A)

Admittedly, I like this move a lot better than most. Eberflus has been on my radar for a couple of offseasons now as a top candidate. I’ll often ask around my connections in NFL circles who they think “under the radar” guys are, and Eberflus consistently has been named as someone who was going to get a shot sooner rather than later.

In the first days of the coaching search for one of these teams, I even spoke to people in the building and gave Eberflus a very high recommendation.

The Colts are viewed as one of the toughest and most competitive teams in the NFL. Eberflus has been a big part of that. He is, without question, one of the names on this list I would trust the most to build an effective, sustainable culture of success.

Las Vegas Raiders Hire Josh McDaniels (Grade: A)

This grade is mostly influenced by the fact that the Raiders could have done MUCH worse here. They’re not the most attractive job because of the financial limitations of their ownership as well as general feelings of dysfunction around the organization. Even with all of that, they ended up with perhaps the biggest “name” of the coaching cycle, with McDaniels being a top candidate even before he ended up back in New England.

I’ll say more on this later in regards to Daboll, but the Raiders’ success is ultimately going to be judged on whether or not McDaniels can build something genuinely his in Las Vegas and not just try to build “Patriots West.”

Miami Dolphins Hire Mike McDaniel (Grade: A)

McDaniel is the last of the Kyle Shanahan coaching bros. to get a head coaching job, but from people I’ve talked to, the league might’ve saved the best for last. McDaniel, a Yale grad, who is well-steeped in the Shanahan/Kubiak tree of the West Coast offense is considered a big piece of the innovative run schemes the 49ers have been running over the past few seasons. Expect the Dolphins to double or triple down on the offensive line and run game in upcoming seasons to truly unlock quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s success through the play-action passing game.

Often times, some of the “smartest” coaches fail not because their brain power is oversold, but because they turn out to be bad communicators. McDaniel is almost universally loved and former players ooze praize about him.

New York Giants Hire Brian Daboll (Grade: B+)

My biggest concern with the Daboll hire is that every tea leaf reads like Giants General Manager Joe Schoen was going to make this hire all along and that that’s part of the organization’s selling point in bringing Schoen onboard in the first place. Like I said with the Raiders, you can’t just duplicate one organization’s success…that has almost always failed in the NFL.

The coaches who succeed are those who realize they have to build something new wherever they go—something that fits the atmosphere of where they’re going and (most importantly) something that genuinely fits the new coach. I’m not sure Daboll gets that.

The first move Daboll tried to make upon his hiring was to bring new Bills OC Ken Dorsey with him, but the Giants are actually better off diversifying and bringing in extra viewpoints from people like new OC Mike Kafka and assistant GM Brandon Brown.

Jacksonville Jaguars Hire Doug Pederson (Grade: B+)

This also is probably the best the Jaguars could’ve done this offseason if their intention all along was to keep GM Trent Baalke. Multiple candidates made it clear they did not want to work with Baalke who is known far and wide for being part of numerous toxic workplaces. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OC and former Jaguars QB Byron Leftwich was who they wanted, and just about everyone in the NFL would’ve made that choice over Baalke.

Yet, Pederson could end up better in the long run. I know this isn’t popular, but retread head coaches tend to be more successful because they typically know what they don’t know. I also really like the pairing of former head coach Mike McCoy coming in as QB coach for Trevor Lawrence. Pederson’s specialty is QBs, but he’s not too proud to delegate, and the Pederson-McCoy pairing could rival Pederson’s partnership with Frank Reich in Philly.

Houston Texans Hire Lovie Smith (Grade: B)

I like this move more than most, and I have a sneaking suspicion that we could be looking back at Smith as the best hire of this coaching cycle a few years down the road. He’s almost entirely devoid of ego and will put together a great staff, including (reportedly) Pep Hamilton as OC and presumptive head coach-in-waiting Josh McCown as QB Coach. Smith’s a mortal lock to get this defense back to Top 10 in the league and if the offense can just return to something resembling respectability, this is a playoff team in two years.

Why the grade is a little lower? The Texans botched this process from the start. Everything I just said above? That could’ve happened with David Culley, which is probably where the Texans should’ve just stayed. It’s clear they want McCown because he and vice president Jack Easterby are close, but that’s a terrible reason and McCown should’ve been on staff last season if that had been the case. Likely, that’s the “philosophical difference” Culley had with the organization.

Continuing to cater to Easterby makes this organization impossible for the vast majority of the NFL’s best players and coaches to want to work for.

New Orleans Saints Hire Dennis Allen (Grade: B-)

Dennis Allen was the choice from the start, but again this process was botched and made a mockery of the NFL’s Rooney Rule at a time when the entire culture is under scrutiny. Can Allen succeed in his second turn as a head coach? Absolutely, and everyone is giving him that chance, because failing with the dysfunctional Raiders is often seen as completely excusable. Allen has a lot more organizational support here, and concerns about the entire team blowing up because of cap space are almost certainly overblown.

That said, interviewing multiple candidates you had zero intention of hiring is nonsense. The team’s stated criteria was “well versed in Saints culture” and “previous head coaching experience.” That’s literally just Allen and two guys the Saints didn’t try to interview—Detroit Lions HC Dan Campbell and Alabama OC Doug Marrone. Does this mean Allen will do poorly? No, but any team that shortcuts the process and does anything less than truly trying to find the best next coach will regret it in the long term.

Minnesota Vikings Hire Kevin O’Connell (Grade: C+)

It does seem that the Vikings went through the process of finding the best coach for their program. And, if we’re all being honest, I’m 100 percent willing to take a backseat and trust that new Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is smarter than I am. I love that O’Connell has been exposed to a wide variety of systems and team atmospheres. The fact that he’s the son of an FBI agent and was a four-year team captain in college also speaks volumes about his character.

That said, my quibble with O’Connell is that he’s 36 and it seems that he’s been brought in as much having worked with Adofo-Mensah and for his familiarity with QB Kirk Cousins than anything else. I’m worried he’s going to be underwater at some point this season and paired with a young first-time GM, the pairing may be too much too soon. I would’ve preferred a steadier hand for both.

Also, if Sean McVay is the boy genius we all believe him to be, how much did O’Connell really coordinate the offense in Los Angeles? How will he fair on his own?

Denver Broncos Hire Nathaniel Hackett (Grade: D+)

My concern with Hackett is not that he can’t be a good coach. He absolutely can. He’s done good work in the past—his time in Jacksonville wasn’t successful from a wins/losses standpoint, but many credit him almost single handedly for a game plan that won a playoff game (against the Steelers no less) with Blake Bortles under center.

Here’s the rub with Hackett, though: With any other last name, does he continually get the chances to fail upward or laterally for the past 10 years? His father is a Hall of Fame head coach, but what has Hackett really done? He’s worked with such luminaries as Kyle Orton and Bortles (and had limited success, which is to be applauded) but his first real success was paid with an offensive mastermind in Matt Lafleur and an MVP QB in Aaron Rodgers.

Rogers, truly, is the reason Hackett is in Denver, and that’s a really stupid way to pick a head coach. He’s brought a handful of Packers staffers with him in the hopes of luring Rodgers to the Mile High City for a few potential runs at a championship.

That means, once again, Hackett hasn’t been hired on his own resume, but someone else's. It can work, absolutely, but my money is on it failing spectacularly.

The Schottey Six: Next Generation “Smartest” Young Minds in Football

In 2011, the Washington coaching staff had Kyle Shanahan, Matt Lafleur, Sean McVay and Mike McDaniel on the same coaching staff. While we may never see a “coaching Rat Pack” like that ever again, here is a next generation of young (under 40) minds in football we may see rise through the ranks.

1. Kellen Moore (Cowboys OC, 33) — Not always the more creative, Moore managed a lot of talent and turned out one of the top offenses in the NFL. He is both the youngest on this list and the name most likely to get the first crack at a head coaching job.

2. Jerod Mayo (Patriots ILB, 35) — Considered the de facto defensive coordinator in New England, Mayo is one of three (along with Bill and Steve Belichick) in putting together defensive game plans. He’s been one of the top defensive minds in the game since early in his playing days.

3. Mike Kafka (Giants OC, 34) — He’s about to have his first real crack at life outside of Andy Reid’s system, and if he does well, he could end up being a head coach in no time. Not bad for a dude with a crypto NFT in his Twitter bio.

4. DeMeco Ryans (49ers DC, 37) — Still maturing as a defensive playcaller, Ryans gets almost universal acclaim for getting the most out of his players and expert leadership.

5. Sean Desai (FA, 38) — Rumored to be heading to either the Giants or the Seahawks, the Bears were insane for letting him get away. He doesn’t blitz a ton and has been able to excel even when top players (like Bears OLB Khalil Mack) go down.

6. Brian Callahan (Bengals OC, 37) — I’ve heard that teams are very interested in bringing Callahan on board not only because he’s considered one of the best offensive playcallers in the game, but also because many believe his dad (Browns OL Coach Bill Callahan) would come along for the ride.

Cleaning Out the Notebook:

— Just missed the list above: Press Taylor (Colts Offensive Asst.), Jonathan Gannon (Eagles DC), Luke Getsy (Bears OC), Thomas Brown (Rams RB/Asst. HC), Aubrey Pleasant (Lions DBs), Ben Johnson (Lions TEs), Zack Orr (Ravens LBs)

— Want to go back to the Mike McCoy hire as QB coach for the Jaguars. Again, I really like this move and had a feeling about 10 days ago that McCoy was going to be back in the league after three years out of it. Remember, about a decade ago, McCoy was the hottest name in coaching. Quarterbacks who have worked with McCoy love him, and his rapport with Lawrence will be a boon for this franchise.

— I agree with the many who believe the Pro Bowl is broken and needs to be fundamentally changed. Or, failing that, just done away with. My solution: Turn the game into a pairing with Nickelodeon as well as USA Football/NFL Flag and play 7-on-7 flag football WITH the offensive and defensive pro bowlers playing skill positions. I would watch the crap out of that. Make it more like the old MTVs “Rock ‘N’ Jock” games with fun rules meant to get a bunch of people watching the game for entertainment more than the purity of the game itself.

— Super intrigued by Pro Football Talk’s latest reporting confirming what so many of us already knew…Deflategate was a big waste of time and the NFL knew it. Then, they covered it up hoping the rest of us wouldn’t find out. Turns out, balls just naturally deflate in cold weather.

— The biggest story none of us know anything about yet? Why did Kyler Murray scrub any mention of the Cardinals from his Instagram? Does it mean anything? We don’t know! No one knows! It’s insane that we have to talk about stuff like this, but it’s clear he’s either trying to send some sort of message or his new social media management team seriously screwed up.

— I’ve joked in various places that they should rename the Rooney Rule the “Bieniemy Rule” after the Kansas City Chiefs OC who can’t seem to get a job, but has been getting interviews so teams can check that box for years. Now, there are reports that his contract is up with the Chiefs and may be looking to go elsewhere. It would be a good move for Bieniemy who has long been tagged with “living in Andy Reid’s shadow.”

— Spent the last week+ in quarantine with both of my school aged boys testing positive with Covid. My whole family is fully vaxxed, and some might say that was a waste because we “got it anyway.” I say no. My boys had next to no symptoms (other than quarantine boredom and a light cough) while my wife and I tested extensively and still never caught it. I count that as a big old win. Take this as an encouragement to get vaccinated and a reminder to wear a mask and stay safe.

Parting Schot:

"You can learn a line from a win and a book from defeat." – Paul Brown