One of the best parts about Pickwatch is that it gives fans direct access to the very best experts around the web, and even allows them the ability to aggregate and analyze their opinions.
To that end, for the 2022 NFL Playoffs, we're bringing some of those best experts to you for a roundtable discussion. This week, we have some great guests:
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John Breech of CBS Sports, on Twitter @JohnBreech
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Christian D'Andrea of For The Win and The Post Route, on Twitter @TrainIsland
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Josh Katzowitz of Pickwatch Pro and Forbes, on Twitter @JoshKatowitz
With three upsets in the Divisional Round, does that make you more or less confident in your picks this week? Are you changing your method at all?
Breech: To be honest, I don't think anyone should feel confident about their picks this week and that's because the two FAVORITES this weekend (Chiefs and Rams) went a combined 0-3 against the two teams they're playing. Also, since 2014, there have been 11 rematches from the regular season in the AFC and NFC title games and the team that won the regular season game is 9-2 in the conference title game.
As for my methods, they definitely won't be changing. I went 2-2 with my picks last week and I lost the two because Patrick Mahomes led a 13-second drive to end regulation and because the 49ers returned a blocked punt for a TD with four minutes left to play. Basically, I felt pretty good about my picks, but they lost because of a few crazy plays, so no need to overreact to that.
D'Andrea: Nope! I went 0-4 last week and lost every game on a walk-off play, which at the very least gives me confidence I wasn't as horribly wrong as my record suggests. I'm going to wade in and fade the Bengals again and quite possibly bet against Matthew Stafford, just because that somehow feels right.
Katzowitz: Hahahaha. You assume that I've had confidence in any picks I've made this year. How can you feel good about anything you pick in the NFL when Jacksonville beats Buffalo 9-6 in Week 9 or when the Texans ripped apart the Titans in Week 11? That said, I'm not changing my methods. I still think the 49ers are a playoff bubble team that has happened to overcome its mediocre quarterback in the past few weeks, and I still think the Chiefs offense will outscore anybody who tries to get in their way. I'm actually feeling pretty confident right now that the Rams and Chiefs will advance to the Super Bowl and that neither conference championship game will be particularly close.
What one-on-one, positional or coaching matchup are you most looking forward to this weekend?
Breech: The entire Chiefs defense against Joe Burrow. The Chiefs defense has struggled against the pass this year and we saw it back in Week 17 when Burrow threw for 446 yards. We also saw it on Sunday when Josh Allen diced them up for 329 yards and four touchdowns. If the Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo can't figure out a way to slow down Burrow, the Bengals could be in line to pull off the upset.
D'Andrea: Jalen Ramsey vs. Deebo Samuel, and then Kyle Shanahan's quest to fold that matchup into the static of the middle of the field in order to spring Brandon Aiyuk for big gains. There aren't a ton of weaknesses in the Rams' defense and lord knows Jimmy Garoppolo's gonna have his share of mistakes. Finding space for any of the Niners' run-after-catch machines (Samuel, Aiyuk, Kittle) is going to be paramount to San Francisco's Super Bowl hopes.
Katzowitz: Despite my confidence in picking the Rams over the 49ers, the San Francisco defensive line could be the gamechanger in this one (the defensive front has been one huge reason why we're even still writing about the 49ers). So, it'll be of the utmost importance for Los Angeles offensive tackles Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein to have a clean game against 49ers defensive ends Nick Bosa and Samson Ebukam. Whitworth is coming off an ankle and knee injury, and it's unclear if he'll be 100 percent. Meanwhile, the 49ers have managed 15 sacks in their past three games, including five against the Rams in Week 18. While the 49ers offense can be hit or miss, it's always fun watching Bosa, Ebukam and Arik Armstead go after opposing quarterbacks.
Have any of these four teams legitimately surprised you either this season or in these playoffs?
Breech: I think the only answer here is the Bengals. The Rams and Chiefs were both popular picks to make the Super Bowl this year. As a matter of fact, two of my CBS Sports colleagues (Jared Dubin and Jonathan Jones) predicted a Rams-Chiefs Super Bowl in the preseason. The 49ers were also a pretty popular pick to be a good team with another colleague (Will Brinson) picking them to go to the Super Bowl. The Bengals came out of nowhere and won the division in a year where everyone was picking them to finish in last place.
D'Andrea: Yep. The Bengals have had a relatively easy road to the AFC title game and it likely stops there, but they've been able to pull out close games and act like a postseason constant rather than the team whose last postseason victory came with Ronald Reagan in office. The 49ers deserve credit for finding ways to win as well, even if that may be more a product of their opponents finding ways to lose against them.
Katzowitz: Like I mentioned last week, I lived in Cincinnati for six years and covered dozens of Bengals games. I saw Kimo blow out Carson's knee in 2005. I saw rookie Mark Sanchez flummox the Bengals in back-to-back weeks in 2009. I saw a lot of losses. But the Zac Taylor era is different. Joe Burrow could eventually be the greatest quarterback in franchise history. Ja'Marr Chase could be a No. 1 receiver for a long time to come. And now that the Bengals have broken long playoff losing streaks (both at home and on the road), it appears the ceiling for Cincinnati is a lot higher than I originally expected.
Do any of these teams have "Team of Destiny" vibes for you?
Breech: Once again, I'm going with the Bengals. Everything has been falling their way since Week 18 starting with the Jaguars upset over the Colts. If the Bengals had been forced to play the Colts or Patriots in the wild-card round, I'm not sure they win, but they got to play the Raiders because of the Jags win and because the Raiders BEAT the Chargers in OT when they could have simply played for a tie, which set up Bengals-Raiders in the wild-card round. In the divisional round, the best matchup for the Bengals was the Titans and that's who they got to play. In the AFC Title game, there's no great matchup, but I do think the Bengals would prefer to be playing a Chiefs team they've already beaten and that's who they ended up getting.
If this "team of destiny" gets to the Super Bowl, they'll either play a 49ers team they've already lost to TWICE in the Super Bowl—they could finally exorcise the demons of losing to Joe Montana twice—or they'll get to play the Rams, and remember, they hired Zac Taylor away from the Rams. Both those storylines sound like "team of destiny" storylines.
D'Andrea: The Niners keep winning games they can be reasonably expected to lose. Let's go with them. At the very least they'd provide a compelling spot to bet against Garoppolo in another Super Bowl.
Katzowitz: If we're talking about a Team of Destiny like the Eagles in 2017 or what Joe Flacco accomplished in 2012, no, I'm not feeling anything like that. The closest to that feeling for me may be the 49ers, but I don't like their chances on Sunday. Even if the Bengals knocked off the Chiefs, I don't think anybody outside southwestern Ohio or northern Kentucky would be talking about a Team of Destiny. These just happen to be three really good teams and one other squad that's just kind of there. If the Steelers somehow were still in the playoffs, then, yeah, we could be talking about a Team of Destiny. Otherwise, I don't think so.