Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 8/27/2025 7:45 PM EDT

We have your Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Pittsburgh Pirates hit the road to face the St. Louis Cardinals.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: St. Louis Cardinals -170 at Caesars / Pittsburgh Pirates +155 at BetRivers
Best Spread Odds: St. Louis Cardinals -1.0 (-127) at DraftKings
Best Total Odds: Over 7.5 (+100) at Caesars / Under 7.5 (-115) at Fanduel

Game Info

Date: August 27, 2025
Time: 7:45 PM EDT
Location: Busch Stadium, St. Louis
TV: -

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals (65-68) host the Pittsburgh Pirates (58-75) in the third game of their series at Busch Stadium, with the series currently tied 1-1. The Cardinals are looking to bounce back after an 8-3 home defeat to the Pirates and have struggled recently, holding a 1-3 record in their last four games. Their offense averages 4.38 runs per game with a .248 batting average, while their pitching staff carries a 4.33 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.

The Pirates, despite their overall season struggles, have shown recent positive momentum, winning five of their last six games, including yesterday's victory over the Cardinals. Their offense averages 3.62 runs per game with a .235 batting average, and their pitching staff boasts a 3.95 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.

On the mound for the Cardinals will be right-hander Sonny Gray (12-6, 4.33 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). Gray has been a more reliable presence at home, where he holds a 3.76 ERA and previously shut out the Pirates in a home start this season. For the Pirates, right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski (3-7, 3.89 ERA, 1.30 WHIP) is set to start. Mlodzinski has faced challenges on the road this season, with a 5.10 ERA across six away starts.

Busch Stadium is known to be a pitcher-friendly park, ranking 16th in MLB for runs factor (0.992) and 17th for home run factor (0.917), which tends to suppress extra-base hits. This environment could favor both Mlodzinski and Gray, who rely on command and movement rather than overpowering velocity.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

The season series between these two teams has been closely contested, with the Pittsburgh Pirates holding a slight 6-5 edge. In their most recent three matchups this season, the Pirates have a 2-1 record against the Cardinals. Looking at the broader picture, the Cardinals hold the historical advantage in head-to-head matchups with 99 wins, 56 of which were secured at home, compared to the Pirates' 79 victories.

Recent trends show the Pirates have been dominant in their overall head-to-head meetings, winning four of their last five games against the Cardinals. However, when playing at home, the St. Louis Cardinals have turned the tables, winning four of their last five home meetings against the Pirates. An interesting trend to note is that the "Over" has hit in the last seven head-to-head meetings between these two clubs.

Pick: Under 7.5 Total Runs

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Despite the historical "Over" trend in head-to-head matchups, the current pitching matchup and park factors strongly suggest a lower-scoring affair. Busch Stadium's pitcher-friendly dimensions, combined with both teams' inconsistent offensive performances this season (Cardinals averaging 4.38 runs per game, Pirates a paltry 3.62 runs per game), point towards the Under. Sonny Gray's strong home performance, including a previous shutout against the Pirates, and Carmen Mlodzinski's ability to limit walks, further bolster the case for a tight game. While the Cardinals are favored, the total of 7.5 runs appears to be set with the pitcher-friendly environment in mind, making the Under a confident play. You can find the best odds for the Under 7.5 at -115 on Fanduel.

Top Player Prop Picks

Carmen Mlodzinski Over 1.5 Pitcher Strikeouts

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Carmen Mlodzinski has consistently hit the over on his strikeout prop, clearing this line in 80% of his last five, ten, fifteen, and twenty games. His season-long over hit percentage stands at an impressive 80.77%. Furthermore, in his two appearances against the St. Louis Cardinals in 2025, Mlodzinski has hit the over on this line 100% of the time, averaging 4.0 strikeouts per game against them. When pitching on the road this season, he has hit the over in 78.57% of his starts. Given these strong trends, Mlodzinski is well-positioned to exceed 1.5 strikeouts against the Cardinals. You can bet on this prop at BetMGM with odds of -190.

Jared Triolo Over 0.5 Hits

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Jared Triolo has been on an absolute tear recently, hitting the over on his hits prop in 100% of his last five games. Over his last ten and fifteen games, he has maintained an 80% hit rate for the over. The Pirates' infielder has been a revelation, going 14-for-33 (.424) with three doubles, a triple, and two home runs over his last 10 games, providing a much-needed spark to the Pirates' offense. While his season-long hit rate for the over is 48.72%, his recent form and ability to hit for both average and power make him a strong candidate to get at least one hit against Sonny Gray and the Cardinals. You can find the best odds for Triolo to get over 0.5 hits at -155 on DraftKings.

Nolan Gorman Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs

Nolan Gorman has been a consistent contributor for the Cardinals, hitting the over on his Hits + Runs + RBIs prop in 100% of his last five games. His strong performance extends to his last ten games, where he's hit the over 80% of the time, and 75% over his last twenty games. For the season, Gorman has hit the over in 63.22% of his games. Against the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2025, he has hit the over in 71.43% of his appearances, and at home this season, he's hit the over in 66.67% of his games. Given his recent hot streak and consistent production, Gorman is a solid pick to record at least one hit, run, or RBI. The best odds for Nolan Gorman to go over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs are -175 at BetMGM.