by John Pole
It's easy enough to make a pick when literally everybody is picking the same thing. So far this season, we've seen 5 matchups where every single expert picked the same thing, namely:
- Week 2: Kansas City @ Denver
- Week 3: Oakland @ New England
- Week 3: Tennessee @ Cincinnati
- Week 4: Tennessee @ Indianapolis
- Week 4: Jacksonville @ San Diego
And believe it or not, on each of those 5 occasions, the (true) consensus pick managed to pull off the victory.
To be quite frank, these matchups aren't very exciting to me, and I have a hard time giving the experts credit for picking them correctly. I'm much more interested in learning which experts who are able to pick against the consensus at a higher rate than average. That interest has led me to create an alternate leaderboard, in an attempt to reward the experts who pick against the consensus, the rebels, if you will.
I'll post the full leaderboard below, but I want to highlight the methodology first, and I also want to make it very clear that this (basic) formula is a work-in-progress, and I'm open to any and all suggestions on how to fine tune it.
The idea is pretty simple: if you're in the 5% of picks who got the pick right, you've outsmarted 95% of the experts, and thus you get 0.95 points. If you were part of the 80% majority who got a pick right, you only outsmarted 20% of the experts, and you'll only get 0.20 points. Or, for those of you who would prefer to see it in a more mathematical form:
Points awarded for each correct pick = 1 - (% of experts who picked incorrectly)
As I said, it's not a very complicated formula so far. For the statistically minded of you out there, I'm sure you can already see a few biases in this metric, so I'll go ahead and identify what I see as the two biggest problems. Both of these should be addressed in the next iteration of this formula:
- It overvalues contrarian pickers: if you had picked against the consensus in every game this season, you'd have 40% more points than the current leader in the clubhouse. That's not exactly what I'm looking for.
- It doesn't provide enough value for getting the pick correct: In this formula, those 5 pure consensus matchups that I mentioned earlier provide 0 points for getting them correct. I may not find them terribly exciting matchups, but there should probably be a little value allocated just for getting the pick correct.
With that said, I'll make a couple final observations on the current state of the leaderboard, which you can find below:
The expert with the most Rebel Points is PFT Commenter, who perfectly fits the "contrarian picker" description from above. While he has the most points, he's only won 57.7% of his overall picks, significantly less than the 61.0% average among the experts. He goes out on a limb a lot, and he gets rewarded for it.
As expected, Nate Silver (the leader of the Expert Standings after week 5) is right near the top, but I want to call your attention to the two experts who are tied for second in the Expert poll:
- Pete Prisco: 69.7% win %, 12.90 rebel points
- Jamey Eisenberg: 69.7% win %, 11.52 rebel points
This is the type of separation I was looking for when I first started digging into the data. These two experts have gotten the same number of picks correct, but Prisco has picked against the grain a little more often and more accurately than Eisenberg has. I'm not saying to bet the farm any time you see Pete Prisco pick against the consensus, but maybe we should give him a little more respect than others?
I'll be back next week with an update to this leaderboard, as well as some further tweaks to the formula. Hopefully by the end of the season, we'll have a concrete way to identify the expert who rebels against the others in the most successful manner.
Expert
Actual Win %
Rebel Points
PFT Commenter
57.7%
15.09
Gordon McGuinness
67.1%
14.06
Nate Silver
71.1%
13.89
Chris Simms
68.4%
13.69
Pete Prisco
69.7%
12.90
Mike Freeman
64.5%
12.79
Jeff Erickson
68.4%
12.72
Jimmy Traina
65.8%
12.63
TD Daniel
65.8%
12.58
John Halpin
67.1%
12.43
Brendon Ayanbadejo
67.1%
12.26
Dan Hanzus
64.5%
12.21
Tom Pelissero
67.1%
12.14
Chris Trapasso
64.9%
11.68
Jamey Eisenberg
69.7%
11.52
Peter Schrager
63.2%
11.44
Dave Richard
64.5%
11.32
Steve Palazzolo
65.8%
11.20
Sam Monson
63.2%
11.19
K.C. Joyner
65.8%
11.15
Accuscore
65.8%
11.02
Gregg Rosenthal
65.8%
10.96
Dave Dameshek
64.5%
10.83
Numberfire
63.2%
10.76
Seth Wickersham
63.2%
10.73
Brad Gagnon
64.5%
10.63
Zach Kruse
67.1%
10.60
Tom Jackson
65.8%
10.56
Gary Mihoces
63.2%
10.45
Vinnie Iyer
64.5%
10.41
Adam Ronis
67.1%
10.36
Mike Garafolo
55.3%
10.28
Khaled Elsayed
63.2%
10.27
Joel Thorman
59.2%
10.26
FOX.com Editors
63.2%
10.21
Marc Sessler
65.8%
9.99
Bill Cowher
63.2%
9.96
Lorenzo Reyes
65.8%
9.93
Jim Miller
61.3%
9.90
Mike Tanier
58.7%
9.89
Mike Ditka
56.6%
9.83
Jason La Canfora
61.8%
9.82
Michael Irvin
64.5%
9.81
Adam Schein
63.2%
9.76
Marcas Grant
65.3%
9.73
Bill Lekas
64.5%
9.73
Rivers McCown
55.3%
9.67
Matt Ufford
61.8%
9.62
Kevin Patra
61.8%
9.61
Michael Fabiano
64.5%
9.60
Adam Schefter
60.5%
9.57
Bart Scott
61.8%
9.54
Kurt Warner
60.5%
9.49
Gary Davenport
61.8%
9.48
Pickwatch
59.2%
9.45
Rich Gannon
64.5%
9.43
Mike Florio
60.5%
9.37
Alex Marvez
60.5%
9.36
David Fucillo
61.8%
9.34
Eric Allen
64.5%
9.26
Teamrankings
63.2%
9.25
Will Brinson
60.5%
9.19
Don Banks
64.5%
9.16
Tony Gonzalez
59.2%
9.13
Elliot Harrison
61.8%
9.12
Cris Carter
64.5%
9.12
Microsoft Cortana
61.8%
9.10
Chris Law
52.0%
9.10
Rich Eisen
60.5%
9.02
Prediction Machine
63.2%
9.00
Adam Meyer
57.9%
8.92
Eric Adelson
55.3%
8.89
Vegas Line
64.0%
8.86
ESPN Fans
65.8%
8.84
Chris Wesseling
60.5%
8.84
Ryan Fowler
60.5%
8.82
Yahoo Users
64.5%
8.72
Neil Hornsby
59.2%
8.72
Pickwatch Users
65.8%
8.60
Marshall Faulk
55.3%
8.57
Whatifsports
61.8%
8.44
Dr. Roto
62.7%
8.43
Matt Bowen
60.5%
8.36
Michael David Smith
61.8%
8.34
Frank Schwab
57.9%
8.32
Ryan Van Bibber
57.9%
8.31
Jim Corbett
61.8%
8.27
Ron Jaworski
63.2%
8.22
Jarrett Bell
61.8%
8.22
Warren Sapp
57.9%
8.20
WalterFootball
53.9%
8.19
Joel Beall
57.9%
8.19
Sterling Sharpe
55.3%
8.16
John Breech
59.2%
8.15
Chris Mortensen
57.9%
8.09
Brent Sobleski
56.6%
8.05
Merill Hoge
56.6%
8.05
Keyshawn Johnson
56.6%
7.98
Expert Consensus
64.5%
7.92
NFL FAN PICKS
63.2%
7.76
Stephen A Smith
56.6%
7.75
Shaun O'Hara
59.2%
7.69
Michael Robinson
66.7%
7.63
Michael Schottey
57.9%
7.62
Nate Davis
60.5%
7.57
Nathan Jahnke
59.2%
7.57
Henry Hodgson
56.6%
7.54
Melissa Stark
59.2%
7.51
Matt Miller
60.5%
7.49
Boomer Esiason
59.2%
7.48
Ben Stockwell
53.9%
7.36
Adam Rank
59.2%
7.34
Braden Gall
56.6%
7.18
Andrea Hangst
55.3%
7.08
Chris Brockman
53.9%
7.03
Mike Golic
59.2%
6.98
Mark Schlereth
59.2%
6.93
Rick Drummond
53.9%
6.93
Ty Schalter
51.3%
6.64
Stephen White
52.6%
6.41
Brandon Tierney
63.9%
6.37
Danny Kelly
50.0%
6.23
Erik Frenz
50.0%
6.02
Steve Mariucci
56.6%
6.00
Josh Katzowitz
55.3%
5.95
Chris Hansen
51.3%
5.80
Lindsay H. Jones
55.3%
5.65
Ryan Wilson
50.0%
5.57
Nick Kostos
50.8%
5.38
