Week 6 of the college football season kicks off tonight as we have a rare early-October college football Wednesday matchup as the SMU Mustangs will head to Central Florida to take on the UCF Golden Knights.

I hope yall have been paying attention to my picks because I am on fire right now. My best bets for the weekend are on a 75% run over the last two weeks, and now that football is on every day, I believe that I am officially in that groove that the haters and losers can only pray that I escape.

Unfortunately, I plan on winning every single bet for the rest of my life.

Anyway, let's get straight into the pick for this game. If you decide to follow our picks, we ask that you do so responsibly.

*Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Oct. 5, 7:00 p.m. ET	Spread	ML	Total
SMU	+2.5 (-110)	+120	O 63.5 (-110)
UCF	-2.5 (-110)	-145	U 63.5 (-110)

SMU:

The Mustangs are doing what they normally do, and that is score points. They may have lost their last two games (to the only two real teams on their schedule), but they are still ranked 21st in scoring (36.3), 27th in yards per play (6.2), and they are picking up over 520 yards per game.

They have not played a defense worth a damn, but this offense continues to be a lethal group.

The large majority of their offensive production comes from the passing game and quarterback Tanner Mordecai. Some would remember him as a former Oklahoma quarterback, but I choose to remember him as the guy who had 29 touchdown passes through the Mustangs' first seven games last season, and 39 total on the season.

However, that eighth game is what started the downward spiral for SMU last season, as they lost to Houston, and went on to lose four of their last five, with their lone win coming against UCF.

Tanner Mordecai avoids the pressure and delivers a beautiful ball for @SMUFB's third score of the first half! pic.twitter.com/2PqLymKKzk
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) September 4, 2022

Despite the early losses, this season has not been any different for Mordecai. Through four games, he has 12 touchdowns and just under 1400 passing yards. As a team, this passing attack is ranked first in passing yards per game (389), ninth in passes per game (45.7), and they are picking up 8.5 yards per pass. SMU is also ranked 18th in pass success and 23rd in pass blocking.

Defensively, SMU has not been very great, as they are giving up 28.7 points per game, 6.4 yards per play, and they are allowing 0.406 points per play. The most troubling stat, however, would be that this defense is ranked 121st in yards per rush, while UCF is 10th in line yards and 25th in rush success. The Mustangs get killed at the line of scrimmage, and although their offense is one of the best statistical units in the country, they will probably have to play up a level to pull off the victory tonight.

UCF:

The Golden Knights also have a really lethal offense, but they do it on the ground rather than through the air. On the season, UCF is ranked 16th in yards per rush (5.4) sixth in rushes per game (49.7), and fourth in rushing yards per game (268.7).

I already mentioned that UCF is top 25 in Rush success and line yards, but the real story here is that the SMU defense is 82nd in line yards, 67th in rush success, and SMU is not a very good tackling team, ranking 73rd in PFF's tackling metric.

Not only will this Mustang defense have troubles against Isaiah Bowser tonight, but starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee is tied with Bowser for the team lead in rushing yards and has added four scores on the ground.

Rhys-Plumlee was a highly rated recruit who signed with Ole Miss, and in his freshman season, he picked up 1023 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns. He could never find the field after that, but that type of dynamic quarterback play will be crucial against a defense that isn't effective against the run and is fairly poor at tackling in open space.

JOHN RHYS PLUMLEE MY GOODNESS 😲 @UCF_Football pic.twitter.com/YuGQ98Xt7B
— CBS Sports Network (@CBSSportsNet) September 18, 2022

On the other side of the ball, the Golden Knights are only allowing 14.7 points per game and 0.217 points per play. Again, UCF has not played any real competition this year, but this defense has a pretty significant advantage here, as they are not better than SMU's offense, but their defense is much, much, much closer to SMU's offense than SMU's defense is to UCF's offense.

The Golden Knight's defense is 32nd in both rush, and pass success, and they are 22nd in Havoc and 6th in finishing drives. The rushing attack should take advantage of a poor tackling defense, and while I am a really big fan of this Mustang offense, this is going to be a hell of a first test.

The Pick:

This is a game that just screams "over." You have an explosive offense in SMU that passes the ball more, and better than most teams in the country, and UCF is putting up over four touchdowns per game. However, this total opened at 65 points, and as of this morning, is already down to 62, meaning there is a lot of sharp money coming in on the under.

I was probably going to lean under here anyway (maybe I am the sharp???), but this just further cements my pick for tonight.

The total has gone under in five of the last six for UCF, four of the last six for SMU, and four of the last five road games for the Mustangs. I anticipate the SMU offense to struggle against a good UCF defense and for this Golden Knights' rushing attack to absolutely feast on this porous defensive front-seven.

If UCF can control the pace of the game, grind out some yards, and keep Mordecai off the field, this game should go way under, and I would also take a peek at UCF on the spread. The Knights have won nine of their last 10 at home, SMU is only 1-5 ATS in their last six games, and they have only beaten UCF once in the last six matchups.

As I said, the total is in a free fall right now, so go find the best number you can. At BetMGM, you can still find the total as of me writing this at 63.5, so take advantage now, and bet on the total to go way under tonight.

Pick: Under 63.5 (-110)

Photo Credit: Embed from Getty Images