NFL Pickwatch - Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Player Props, Picks and Predictions

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 10/21/2024 7:30 PM EST

We have your Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Tampa Bay Lightning hit the road to face the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Odds Info

Best Moneyline Odds: Tampa Bay Lightning +122 (FanDuel) / Toronto Maple Leafs -140 (BetMGM)
Best Puck Line Odds: -1.5 - Tampa Bay Lightning -200 (BetMGM) / Toronto Maple Leafs +175 (Caesars)
Best Total Odds: 6.5 - Under -110 (BetMGM) / Over -108 (DraftKings)

Game Info

Date: 10/21/2024
Time: 7:30 PM EST
Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto, ON)
TV: NHL Net

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Over the past two seasons, the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Toronto Maple Leafs have faced off four times, with each team securing two victories. The games have been evenly split between home and away wins, with the visiting team winning twice and the home team also winning twice. In terms of betting outcomes, Tampa Bay has consistently outperformed expectations, covering the spread in all four matchups, while Toronto has failed to cover the spread in any of these games. The games have generally been high-scoring affairs, with the total score going over the set line in three of the four contests, and only once falling under.

The most recent encounter between these two teams took place on April 17, 2024, where the Tampa Bay Lightning emerged victorious with a 6-4 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs. Tampa Bay took an early lead with goals from Nicholas Paul and Nikita Kucherov in the first period. Despite a response from Toronto's Ryan Reaves, Tampa Bay extended their lead in the second period with goals from Anthony Duclair, Brayden Point, and Brandon Hagel. Toronto attempted a comeback in the third period with goals from TJ Brodie, Pontus Holmberg, and John Tavares, but it was not enough to overcome Tampa Bay's lead. Key statistics from the game included Toronto's 38 shots on goal compared to Tampa Bay's 32, and both teams had a similar number of blocked shots, with Tampa Bay at 17 and Toronto at 16. Tampa Bay capitalized on their power play opportunities, scoring once on four chances, while Toronto failed to convert on three power play opportunities.

In the context of these past matchups, the upcoming game on October 21, 2024, promises to be another competitive encounter. Both teams have shown the ability to win on the road and at home, and the games have typically been high-scoring, with Tampa Bay consistently covering the spread. The Lightning's ability to capitalize on power play opportunities and their strong performance against the spread could be key factors in the upcoming game. Meanwhile, Toronto will be looking to improve their defensive play and power play conversion rate to secure a victory. As both teams prepare to face off once again, fans can anticipate another closely contested and potentially high-scoring game.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Preview

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Toronto Maple Leafs are set to clash in what promises to be an electrifying matchup at Scotiabank Arena. Both teams have had a mixed start to the 2024-25 NHL season, with the Lightning holding a 3-1 record and the Maple Leafs at 3-2. This game is particularly intriguing as it features two of the league's most prolific scorers, Nikita Kucherov and Auston Matthews, who are expected to play pivotal roles in their teams' performances.

Kucherov has been in scintillating form, leading the NHL with seven goals in just four games. His ability to find the back of the net will be crucial for the Lightning, especially against a Maple Leafs team that has struggled defensively in recent outings. On the other hand, Matthews, who was last season's goal-scoring leader, has had a slower start with only two goals in five games. However, his track record suggests that he is more than capable of turning things around quickly, and a matchup against a familiar foe like the Lightning could be the perfect opportunity.

Historically, the encounters between these two teams have been closely contested. Over the past two seasons, they have split their four meetings evenly, with each team winning twice. The games have been high-scoring affairs, with the total score surpassing the set line in three of the four contests. The Lightning have consistently covered the spread in these matchups, showcasing their ability to perform under pressure.

In their most recent meeting on April 17, 2024, the Lightning secured a 6-4 victory over the Maple Leafs. Tampa Bay's offensive prowess was on full display, with goals from Nicholas Paul, Nikita Kucherov, Anthony Duclair, Brayden Point, and Brandon Hagel. Despite a spirited comeback attempt by Toronto, the Lightning's early lead proved insurmountable. Key statistics from that game included Toronto's 38 shots on goal compared to Tampa Bay's 32, and both teams had a similar number of blocked shots, with Tampa Bay at 17 and Toronto at 16.

As the two teams prepare to face off once again, the Lightning will be looking to capitalize on their power play opportunities, a factor that has been instrumental in their past successes against Toronto. Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs will aim to tighten their defense and improve their power play conversion rate to secure a win on home ice. With both teams eager to assert their dominance in the Atlantic Division, this matchup is set to be another thrilling chapter in their ongoing rivalry.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning Against the Spread

As the Tampa Bay Lightning prepare to face the Toronto Maple Leafs, the case for backing the Lightning against the spread is compelling. Historically, the Lightning have consistently outperformed expectations in their matchups against the Maple Leafs, covering the spread in all four of their most recent encounters. This trend highlights their ability to rise to the occasion, particularly in high-stakes games against formidable opponents like Toronto.

One of the key factors in favor of the Lightning is their offensive firepower, led by Nikita Kucherov, who has been in exceptional form this season. Kucherov currently leads the NHL with seven goals in just four games, showcasing his ability to influence the outcome of games single-handedly. His performance will be crucial against a Maple Leafs defense that has shown vulnerabilities in recent outings. Additionally, the Lightning's ability to capitalize on power play opportunities has been a significant advantage in their past meetings with Toronto, as evidenced by their power play success in their 6-4 victory on April 17, 2024.

Moreover, the Lightning's recent form suggests they are well-positioned to continue their strong performance against the spread. With a 3-1 record to start the season, they have demonstrated resilience and the capacity to secure victories both at home and on the road. This adaptability is crucial when facing a team like the Maple Leafs, who have struggled to find consistency early in the season, holding a 3-2 record.

In contrast, the Maple Leafs have failed to cover the spread in their recent matchups against the Lightning, indicating a pattern of underperformance in these high-scoring affairs. Despite having a potent offensive weapon in Auston Matthews, who was last season's goal-scoring leader, Matthews has had a slower start this season with only two goals in five games. This sluggish start could hinder Toronto's ability to keep pace with the Lightning's dynamic attack.

Given these factors, the Lightning's track record against the spread, combined with their current form and offensive prowess, makes them a strong pick to cover the spread in this upcoming clash against the Maple Leafs. Fans can expect another thrilling and competitive game, with the Lightning poised to maintain their edge in this ongoing rivalry.

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs Top Player Prop Picks

Nikita Kucherov Over 3.5 Shots On Goal -118 (BetRivers)

Nikita Kucherov has been in exceptional form this season, leading the NHL with seven goals in just four games. His offensive prowess is a key factor for the Tampa Bay Lightning, and his ability to generate shots on goal is crucial for his team's success. In the upcoming matchup against the Toronto Maple Leafs, Kucherov's aggressive playstyle and scoring ability make the over on 3.5 shots on goal a compelling pick. Given Toronto's recent defensive struggles, Kucherov is likely to find ample opportunities to test the Maple Leafs' goaltending, making this prop a strong choice.

Auston Matthews Under 4.5 Shots On Goal -110 (BetRivers)

Auston Matthews, last season's goal-scoring leader, has had a slower start to the current season with only two goals in five games. This sluggish beginning suggests that Matthews might not reach the high volume of shots expected of him, especially against a Tampa Bay team that has historically performed well defensively against Toronto. The Lightning's ability to contain Matthews in past encounters, coupled with his current form, supports the under on 4.5 shots on goal. As Matthews looks to regain his scoring touch, this prop reflects the current challenges he faces in finding his rhythm.

Mitch Marner Over 0.5 Assists -135 (DraftKings)

Mitch Marner's playmaking ability is a cornerstone of the Toronto Maple Leafs' offensive strategy. With the Lightning's focus likely on containing Auston Matthews, Marner's role as a facilitator becomes even more critical. His knack for setting up scoring opportunities for his teammates makes the over on 0.5 assists an attractive proposition. Given the high-scoring nature of past matchups between these two teams, Marner is well-positioned to contribute to the scoresheet by assisting on goals, especially in a game where Toronto will be eager to capitalize on any defensive lapses by Tampa Bay.