Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees Player Props, Picks and Predictions - 9/5/2025 7:05 PM EDT

We have your Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees prop betting and game preview needs covered as the Toronto Blue Jays hit the road to face the New York Yankees.

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees Pick

Best Moneyline Odds: New York Yankees -130 (BetMGM), Toronto Blue Jays +115 (Caesars)
Best Spread Odds: New York Yankees -1.0 (+110 BetRivers), Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-180 ESPN BET)
Best Total Odds: Over 8.5 (-125 Caesars), Under 9.0 (-114 Fanduel)

Game Info

Date: September 5, 2025
Time: 7:05 PM EDT
Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York
TV: -

Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees Preview

This Friday evening, the New York Yankees (78-62) host the Toronto Blue Jays (81-59) at Yankee Stadium in a pivotal AL East showdown. The Yankees come into this game in impressive form, boasting an 8-2 record over their last 10 outings, averaging a robust 7.5 runs per game while holding opponents to just 3.3 runs. Their season average of 5.29 runs per game slightly edges out the Blue Jays' 4.33 runs per game. The Yankees have also been strong at home with a 41-28 record.

Taking the mound for the Yankees will be right-hander Cam Schlittler, who holds a 2-2 record with a solid 2.61 ERA. When Schlittler starts as the moneyline favorite, the Yankees have a 3-2 record. For the Blue Jays, right-hander Kevin Gausman (8-10, 3.75 ERA) gets the nod. While Gausman has a winning record when the Blue Jays are underdogs in his starts (9-5), the team's overall performance against the spread in his starts is 12-15. The Blue Jays have shown some defensive inconsistency recently, with a 5-5 record in their last 10 games, averaging 6.7 runs scored but conceding about 6.2 runs per game during that stretch. Yankee Stadium itself is a neutral park overall, but it does tend to favor home runs, which could play into the Yankees' power-hitting lineup.

Both teams are dealing with a number of injuries. For the Yankees, key players like Brent Headrick, Jonathan Loáisiga, Oswaldo Cabrera, Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt, and Jake Cousins are on the IL, with Jazz Chisholm Jr., Eric Reyzelman, and Chase Hampton listed as day-to-day. The Blue Jays also have a significant injury list including Anthony Santander, Robinson Piña, Nick Sandlin, Yimi García, Alek Manoah, Bowden Francis, Ryan Burr, and Angel Bastardo on the IL, with Max Scherzer day-to-day.

Historic Head-to-Head Stats and Analysis

Historically, the rivalry between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees has been remarkably even, with both teams boasting 82 wins in their head-to-head battles. However, the Yankees have held a distinct advantage when playing at home, securing 46 victories compared to the Blue Jays' 35 road wins in this matchup. The Yankees also hold a slight edge in average runs per game in their historical encounters, averaging 4.66 runs compared to the Blue Jays' 4.33 runs.

Looking at their most recent 10 matchups in 2025, the Toronto Blue Jays have had the upper hand, winning 7 of those contests. Their last encounter on July 24 saw the Blue Jays clinch an 8-4 victory. Here's a breakdown of their recent head-to-head results:

Jul 23, 2025: Blue Jays 8-4 Yankees
Jul 22, 2025: Blue Jays 4-5 Yankees
Jul 21, 2025: Blue Jays 4-1 Yankees
Jul 3, 2025: Blue Jays 8-5 Yankees
Jul 2, 2025: Blue Jays 11-9 Yankees
Jul 1, 2025: Blue Jays 12-5 Yankees
Jun 30, 2025: Blue Jays 5-4 Yankees
Apr 27, 2025: Blue Jays 1-5 Yankees
Apr 27, 2025: Blue Jays 2-11 Yankees
Apr 25, 2025: Blue Jays 4-2 Yankees

Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline

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The New York Yankees moneyline at -130 (BetMGM) presents a strong value pick for this matchup. The Yankees are in excellent form, winning 8 of their last 10 games and showcasing a potent offense that has averaged 7.5 runs per game during that span. Their home advantage at Yankee Stadium, where they hold a 41-28 record this season, further strengthens their position. While the Blue Jays have had recent success in the head-to-head series, the Yankees' current momentum and their starting pitcher Cam Schlittler's solid 2.61 ERA give them the edge. Additionally, sharp betting action indicates a 54.75% home sharp win percentage for the Yankees, suggesting smart money is backing New York.

Top Player Prop Picks

Cody Bellinger (New York Yankees) - Hits Over 0.5

Cody Bellinger has been a consistent hitter for the Yankees, especially recently. He has hit the over on 0.5 hits in 100% of his last 5 games and 90% of his last 10 games. Looking specifically at his performance against the Blue Jays in 2025, Bellinger has hit the over on this line in 88.89% of his matchups, averaging 1.33 hits. When playing at home in 2025, he has hit the over 72.06% of the time, averaging 1.16 hits. Given his recent form and strong performance against Toronto, taking Bellinger to get over 0.5 hits at -210 odds (BetRivers) is a favorable play.

Aaron Judge (New York Yankees) - Hits Over 0.5

Aaron Judge is another Yankees slugger poised for a strong performance. He has hit the over on 0.5 hits in 80% of his last 5 games and 70% of his last 10 games. Against the Blue Jays in 2025, Judge has hit the over 70% of the time, averaging 1.1 hits. His home performance in 2025 also shows a 65.08% over hit rate, averaging 1.08 hits. Furthermore, Judge has an excellent career track record against Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman, with a .356 batting average, .822 slugging percentage, and .532 wOBA. These numbers strongly support Judge getting at least one hit in this game. You can find this prop at -195 odds (BetRivers).

Kevin Gausman (Toronto Blue Jays) - Pitcher Outs Under 15.5

While Kevin Gausman is a talented pitcher, his recent outings and historical performance against the Yankees suggest he might struggle to go deep into this game. He has gone under 15.5 pitcher outs in 80% of his last 5 games and 80% of his last 10 games. More notably, against the New York Yankees in 2025, Gausman has gone under this line in 66.67% of his appearances, averaging 14.67 outs. His 2024 performance against the Yankees was even more pronounced, going under 15.5 outs in 100% of his starts, averaging just 11.5 outs. Considering these trends, betting on Gausman to record under 15.5 pitcher outs at -110 odds (DraftKings) appears to be a solid pick.