Welcome to another year of Upset Watch.
As ever, I begin our season with data-driven NFL Win Total picks. Every season I select a handful of teams that I think are best placed to either beat the Total Wins line, or fail to reach it.
Last season's results
Panthers O 4.5 ✅
Patriots U 5.5 ✅
Colts U 8.5 ✅
Titans O 6.5 ❌
Bears U 8.5 ✅
(bonus picks)
Raiders U 6.5 ✅
Packers U 9.5 ❌
Cardinals O 6.5 ✅
After a perfect 2023, depending on whether you play the 'bonus picks', which are effectively leans, we're either 9-1 or 11-2 over the last two seasons, and either way, it's a very good record.
That's because we don't rely on gut feel, but on identifying key datapoints that consistently yield results. We're going to drill down into the specifics of team scenarios, and find the over and under-valued lines that will be most likely to end in triumph or disaster, based on over a decade of historical analysis.
Methodology
We're looking for a few key areas, and briefly, here's what each one signals historically:
- Rookie QB's - This isn't a lock, but most rookies struggle to meet high expectations in year one. Last season saw Jayden Daniels and Bo Nix buck that trend, but Caleb Williams and Drake Maye were put into situations where expectations were way too high. They're 7-17-1 (29.1%) vs the over since 2016.
- Second year starting QB's - Conversely, but entirely logically, second year NFL Qb's perform much better. Those QB's are 20-14-4 (58.8%) vs the over since 2016.
- Veteran QB acquisitions - A big red flag? When a team makes a 'holdover' type of QB change, either in anticipation of a rookie taking over, or potentially tanking in the draft. Teams making these moves are 22-41-4 (34.9%) vs the over since 2016.
- Coaching changes - Coaching changes can go either way. In some situations, such as when paired with a developing second year QB, or a veteran team that has grown stale under the previous coach, it can work. In other cases where they're given a veteran QB they probably don't love, it fails. Overall, teams generally fare better when making coaching changes - 32-28-5, 52.3% vs the over since 2016 - but that rate falls to just 6-12 (33.3%) when paired with a new veteran QB.
Want to know this season's Win Total picks? Become a Pickwatch Expert or BetSmart subscriber today to unlock all 8.
This season's picks
Indianapolis Colts UNDER 7.5 wins
Let's be frank about the Colts: They've gone from a very bad situation with Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco at QB, to a significantly worse one with Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones at QB.
Jones is going to get first crack, but he has played only 16 games in his last two seasons, and only managed a full season once in his entire career, either because of injury or poor play. The chances of Jones righting both of those ships at once are almost nil.
What will help the Colts is a top tier set of offensive weapons, and a solid offensive line to protect them both, but the problems here are that even with Michael Pittman, Josh Downs, rookie TE Tyler Warren, and RB Jonathan Taylor, they have two QB's who cannot throw the ball consistently well. Combine that with a coach in Shane Steichen who is on the hot seat already, and you have a combination that rarely ends well.
Their defense is serviceable, up front, but the secondary is still very shaky after finishing last season ranked 29th in passing yards per attempt allowed.
It's possible the Colts harness the offense well enough to make hay in a middling AFC South, but if any of the Jags, Titans or Texans sweep them this season, it's hard to see a good ending for a team that will play the AFC and NFC West teams this season.