Welcome to week 12's Upset Watch. Last week we went 2-4 on picks, but almost won with 3 games (Seattle, Arizona and Pittsburgh) being decided on the final drive. In the end, there were only 3 upset wins in the whole week, and we nailed the Eagles to win outright, and the Raiders to cover the spread.

This week it's Thanksgiving, which of course means not only 3 games on Thursday, but this year, for the first time, there will be a Friday matchup between the Dolphins (Wow! Great news) and the Jets (Oh.) to 'look forward to'. We'll send a quick reminder on Friday so you don't forget.

If you're new to Pickwatch, or have never read Upset Watch, here's what we do:

With over 35% of NFL games ending in an underdog outright win, it's important to know when upsets are most likely to occur, and which teams to pick. Last season, we had our third straight winning season, with a combined winning total of over +$8,000 in that time.

Starting every Wednesday, we select a number of underdogs that have a statistically higher chance of winning or covering than others. These are not pool picks, and we only track the performance of our underdog winner and cover picks. Our aim is to come out of each season profitable, which we've done 3 seasons in a row.

Read on for this week's quick pick list, and click any game on the left for analysis added between Wednesday and Friday (or later where injuries are in play).