Welcome to week 18's Upset Watch.

• Week 18 is an unpredictable slate, with many playoff teams considering resting starters. It represents both opportunity, and risk, in equal measures. With our column in profit on the season, we're keen not to get overly aggressive, but there are some standout plays already.
• The first game of week 18 is on Saturday, which gives us some time to see how things shake out. Some teams will keep their cards close to their chests, but others are openly discussing resting starters. By Friday, we should know as much as we can.
• We'll be putting our quick picks list forward today (Tuesday), which will have our provisional list. I will be shorter and sweeter this week with little or no analysis on some games where the game isn't meaningful, or starters are rested, as much of the regular season predictive metrics go out of the window. In some cases, where both teams can still achieve something, or where there's an incentive to play hard, I'll be more expansive.
• Finally, I'll be very clear early on about which picks are plays no matter what and which we are considering based on lineup clues as the week goes on. There are a couple of picks that we think you should look at early, and we're being totally clear on that now.