Our season rolls on with some great opportunities in week 3. There are some huge spreads to pick, and some great matchups. Let’s dive into how you can use historical statistics to predict which underdogs to back each week for a greater profit!
Season results (+$452)
Underdog picks: 6-5
Underdog Covers 3-2
Last week was pretty much a push. That said, given how unfortunate we were (the Giants missing the field goal, and Tua getting injured after a few minutes of the Dolphins game) I thought it could have been a lot better.
If you’re going to have bad luck, then clearly, getting away with breaking even is a great outcome.
Last week we nailed the Cowboys and Ravens picks, once again, hitting the pick of the week (Dallas) to be 2-0 on the season so far. It was hard to miss out on Carolina’s huge upset of the Saints, and only getting the Raiders to cover against the Steelers, rather than win, but all told, it’s started off very successfully in 2021 and our profit on individual bets is already nearly $500.
Again, it’s always worth noting that a parlay of the winners would have netted a cool $700 in profit, so as I always say, remember to pick combinations of upsets, not just lump on them all coming off.
Week 3 - Number of upsets and covers
Thus far, underdogs are 14-18 in 2021, a win rate of almost 44%.
That compares well with 2020 (28%) and 2019 (35%), and in week 3, we can expect to see that number come down ever so slightly. The average win percentage for underdogs in week 3 is 38%, in other words, we’ll be picking 6 underdogs to win, one of our highest totals of the year.
What about covering underdogs? Well, those are a little higher. In week 3, it’s usually a straight 50%, so that means adding a further 2 teams to our selections who will cover, but lose the game.
Where will upsets occur?
As the season progresses, we take a combination of historical data and this season’s results to understand which situations are generating the most success. In 2021 so far, there are some trends worth watching...