Season Results (+$746)
Underdog Win Picks: 10-7
Underdog cover picks: 4-3
Picks of the week: 3-0
Week 3 was another big success for Upset Watch, nailing 4 of our 6 winning underdogs (New Orleans, Atlanta, LA Rams, and Green Bay), and also picking the Lions to cover the spread in defeat against the Ravens.
Remember that upset wins yield such big returns that often just 2 teams winning outright can be a big driver of profit, so any week where we’re getting 3 or 4 is a big win for us.
Oh, and a $100 parlay of our 4 winners last week? That’s a return of $2,522, to add to the $4,674 in week 1 and $648 in week 2.
We’re also now 3-0 in our underdog pick of the week after the Packers won in week 3.
Week 4 - Number of Upsets and Covers
Week 4 is one of our biggest opportunities of the season. From next week, we will begin to see a downward trend in underdogs that will last for most of the season.
Why? Because we all now have a pretty good handle on most teams. The Jets are a bad team, the Rams are a good team. That understanding means that the odds will tend to favor the right teams slightly more often, and thus, underdogs will win less often.
But in week 4, there are still opportunities, as people undervalue and overvalue certain teams who have yet to show their true colors, and that means a further 6 underdog wins (5.8 average) and a further 2 underdogs who will cover the spread and not win.
Where do Upsets Occur?
Underdogs are 21-27 this season so far, a rate of 43.75%. That far eclipses last year’s 31.25% by this point. This trend continues into ATS picks. Vs the spread, underdogs are covering 62.5% of the time.
What does this mean? That we are in the middle of a similar glut to 2019, when we saw early season road underdogs in particular continually beat the spread and win or cover an inordinate number of games - only this season, it isn’t whether a team plays at home or on the road that is the defining factor...
The defining factor in 2021 so far is...
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