Welcome to week 7's Upset Watch

Times have been lean for underdogs in the NFL, and we're collateral damage in that. Last week's 2 underdog winners were a joint record low over the last decade for weeks 1-6, and with three weeks of 3 or fewer underdogs, this has been the worst season on record for weekly winners.

But all is not lost! The season is long, and all trends come to an end. Our job is to keep picking the most likely underdogs, and history tells us that if we stick with it, things will come to us eventually. This week, there are 15 games and some tempting odds, and I'm quietly confident that there'll be at least a couple more winners on the cards this week.

How Upset Watch works

Each week we select a handful of underdogs who we think are most likely to upset the odds. We accompany these selections with a full analysis of the game, and a list of all games, ordered by our projected probability that the underdog wins.

Our aim is to be in profit by season's end - something we've managed in 7 straight years to a total of $+13,000 in profit. Because of the longer odds of an underdog, anything over a 40% hit rate is likely to yield a profit.

We combine data and trend analysis with good, solid research, to find the underdogs who have a better chance than the odds suggest, and that's what gets results over the long haul.

We can't guarantee you'll win every week, but for 6 years, the method of playing has been profitable every year, so in the long haul, it's a much better chance of winning than betting favorites.

VIP members, read on for our best underdog picks of week 7. Not a VIP member? sign up here!