Welcome to Upset Watch
If you're new to Pickwatch, or have never read Upset Watch, here's what we do:
With over 35% of NFL games ending in an underdog outright win, it's important to know when upsets are most likely to occur, and which teams to pick.
Every Wednesday, we select a number of underdogs that have a statistically higher chance of winning than others. To do this, we use historical trends, such as the number of underdogs that historically win each week, and we then use a weighted ranking of each team's current 'true' performance to assess how well they are playing, and whether the matchup is favorable.
Why underdogs and not favorites?
Because underdog winners yield bigger profits from the greater odds you face, you don't need to win every pick you make. Our motto is that with Upset Watch, you make more profit from less picks.
In 2021, betting $100 on every underdog winner that we picked would have yielded you a profit of+$3,200 over the course of the season.
NEW! Contents (click to jump to section - Pro subscription required for picks):
Editor's Note: Changes coming soon to Upset Watch
I've been polling our readers recently via our support chat to find ways to improve Upset Watch. As a result, I'll be making some changes to the layout of this area, and Upset Watch itself will become a more integrated part of the platform, with it's own table ranking the games each week in order of likelihood of an upset occurring.
It's highly likely that as part of that, we will move to a star rating system too. This will allow you to see a constantly up-to-date assessment of every game from the start of the week through to the end, while still getting analysis on each game if that is what you want.
Anyway, I'm very much trying to keep this area less cluttered (another issue with it!) so this is a heads up to expect a dedicated post about these upcoming changes by the end of this week!
Week 7 ended in a profit, but was very close to being a massive win. There were just 5 underdog wins in the NFL last week, and we called 3 of them.
As Upset Watch readers will know, we made a huge call on the Washington Commanders to win against Green Bay when they were big underdogs, despite only 5% of NFL experts picking them. We sent out a special email to all subscribers explaining this pick, ensuring that thousands of people got the message.
Alongside that, we also had success with the Giants and Jets winning. The latter was especially satisfying, because as I made clear in the column last week, the Jets were +3 underdogs on Wednesday, despite there being a solid chance that Russell Wilson would not even play in Sunday's game. The correct play was to buy the Jets low, and even if you didn't like the pick, you could have cashed out for a small profit before the game even took place, as the odds shifted at game time to favor the Jets.
Season Performance
Our rolling season profit continues to rise again. We've been very close to breaking the big one over the last few weeks, and we think that the glut of bad teams in the NFL makes underdogs a very good proposition right now. I am hoping that by week 9, we will be close to the +$1,500 mark.
As always, we base our profit on betting $100 per bet, but the profit percentage (ROI) will be the same no matter what you bet.
I get asked this question a lot, about the best way to use the informationin Upset Watch/
I've transferred this section of Upset Watch to a separate article, as I attempt to make the weekly column easier to read, so if you want to see my tips for how to maximize profit alongside many thousands of other subscribers, check this link out.
Get free access to Upset Watch:
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Again, new customers only, you must click via that link so we know you did it via us and you can use the code PICKWATCHPRO if prompted - and the offer is available in eligible states only!
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Now let's pick some games.
