NFL Pickwatch - Week 15 NFL Power Rankings

The old adage, made famous by Mark Twain, “there are three types of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics” casts a shadow over stats true intentions.

In a sports world where we drool over Player A being better than Player B or Team C more talented than Team D, casual sports fans crave black-and-white analysis and is why weekly subjective NFL Power Rankings are such low hanging fruit on the sports content tree. Take one’s opinion or a collective of opinions, number them 1-32 and place them in list form with two cents of thought. Boom, you have power rankings.

Pickwatch NFL power rankings are structured slightly different with year-to-date statistics acting as a proverbial walking stick towards what an NFL team could or should be at this point versus what their record says they are heading into Week 15.

For example, at 3-10, the Denver Broncos have already been eliminated from playoff contention. However, they rank 24^th in our weekly rankings. Why higher than expected? Well, statistically speaking, their defense is top five in yards allowed per play and points allowed per game, while their offense – it may come as a surprise – does move the football. The problem lies within their red zone efficiency or lack thereof because the Broncos convert less than 45% of their red zone trips into touchdowns, ranked 30^th in the NFL. A few more trips to paydirt and Russell Wilson’s debut season in Denver may not have ended in shambles.

Note: these rankings are based on performance versus expected performance (opponent average) and are statistically based rankings versus subjective NFL power rankings you can find in every corner of the internet these days.

Week 15 NFL Power Rankings	Team	Analysis
1	Kansas City Chiefs	The 2022 Chiefs have implemented a Loyola-Marymount approach to winning: outscore everybody. By one, two, 14, just win. The offense averages the most yards per play as they did at the end of the 2021 season.
2	Philadelphia Eagles	An elite rushing attack, which has averaged 227.7 yards over the past three games, paired with an elite pass defense and top-ranked pass rush continue to baffle opposing coordinators.
3	Buffalo Bills	A slight dip in offensive production the past three weeks was enough for the Bills front office to go out and convince wide receiver Cole Beasley out of retirement. It was not that long ago that many wondered if Josh Allen was healthy enough to start with a bum elbow and we should act surprised at some regression?
4	Dallas Cowboys	Not only did the Texans nearly upset the Cowboys as 17.5-point underdogs, Houston exposed one of Dallas’ greatest weaknesses heading into the home stretch: their rush defense.
5	San Francisco 49ers	The stingiest scoring defense on the planet has allowed just 8 points per game over the past three weeks and 15.2 PAPG for the year.
6	Cincinnati Bengals	Without Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst, Joe Burrow carved up the Browns secondary. Also worth noting Burrow has been sacked just six times over the past five games as the new-look o-line continues to gel.
7	Baltimore Ravens	Baltimore is running out of healthy quarterbacks at the wrong time.
8	New York Jets	The arrival of Sauce Gardner in New York has helped the Jets build the most statistically sound pass defense in our rankings model. Now about that quarterback carousel.
9	Miami Dolphins	Were losses to the 49ers and Chargers flukes or what the Dolphins truly are and are “we” conveniently ignoring Tua’s health these days?
10	New England Patriots	Bill Belichick continues to make chicken soup out of chicken droppings as the Patriots currently own the AFC’s last playoff spot.
11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	A Tom Brady-led offense has let down its defense on a regular basis. Perhaps, Rob Gronkowki was the league’s Most Valuable Player.
12	Cleveland Browns	Deshaun Watson is rusty, Nick Chubb isn’t utilized enough by the offense and the team’s defensive coordinator must be on the last of his nine lives.
13	Detroit Lions	Detroit’s offense is humming behind Jared Goff’s arm, but defense needs to improve vastly before the Lions become a viable threat in the NFC.
14	Washington Commanders	One of the league’s elite defenses gets Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young back this weekend.
15	Minnesota Vikings	Bookmakers tried to warn us by branding the 10-win Vikings as road dogs at Detroit last weekend? Did “we” listen, likely not.
16	Los Angeles Chargers	Justin Herbert is indeed a franchise quarterback, but the Chargers rushing offense and defense will continue to cost them playoff berths in a loaded AFC.
17	New Orleans Saints	The Saints are averaging 14.3 points per game over the past three. Remind us again why Jameis Winston isn’t starting?
18	Green Bay Packers	The Aaron Rodgers era ends with a thud.
19	Jacksonville Jaguars	Trust the process, right? Trevor Lawrence has taken some steps forward this season, but the Jaguars pass defense leaves them exposed to offensive onslaughts by the opposition.
20	Seattle Seahawks	Geno Smith quieted the critics with his play this year, but injuries to Seattle’s stable of running backs and absence of any rush defense leaves the Seahawks stuck in a quagmire of mediocrity.
21	Las Vegas Raiders	The Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde of the NFL: you don’t know which personality and production you’ll get week-to-week. The same team that lost to Jeff Saturday and Baker Mayfield in their coaching and quarterback debuts, all ripped off three consecutive wins in-between.
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	A pedestrian NFL franchise that seems to wait for T.J. Watt to bail them out on a weekly basis.
23	Arizona Cardinals	Kyler Murray’s season-ending knee injury is just a microcosm to a sloppy 2022 campaign for Kliff Kingsbury’s crew.
24	Denver Broncos	Let’s ride… off into the sunset and forget this season ever happened.
25	New York Giants	A promising start to the season at 6-1 was exposed by the Giants Achilles’ heel: lack of offensive weapons and production.
26	Tennessee Titans	One of the more maddening teams to handicap in 2022, the Titans leaky pass defense keeps opposing offenses in every game. Just look at the Jaguars-Titans box score.
27	Indianapolis Colts	Matt Ryan is toast. Sam Ehlinger isn’t the answer. Andrew Luck is happy in retirement.
28	Carolina Panthers	Another wonky season down in Carolina saw the departure of franchise running back Christian McCaffrey and a weird decision to go with Sam Darnold the rest of the way and move on from Baker Mayfield after just seven games.
29	Los Angeles Rams	The reigning Super Bowl champions are one and done following injuries to both Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford.
30	Chicago Bears	Justin Fields has accounted for nearly 62% of the Bears offensive production this season and Chicago’s defense ranks 29^th in opponent’s yards per play.
31	Atlanta Falcons	The Marcus Mariota era in Atlanta may have ended with season-ending knee surgery. We’ll get to see if rookie Desmond Ridder is the franchise quarterback they hope or just another bridge to nowhere behind center.
32	Houston Texans	They have 12 draft picks, including two in the first round, to look forward to next spring.