Hello again! It’s great to be back for another season with NFL Pickwatch.
Below are my confidence level straight up picks for Week 1. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 221-142-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.
The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that have netted a 265-107-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers. Pickwatch Pro is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Now let’s get to this week’s picks!
Baltimore at Kansas City
The Chiefs went all out to upgrade their vertical passing game this offseason, and that should lead to Xavier Worthy seeing multiple long pass targets in this contest. Having said this, this is apt to be a slugfest given that both teams have powerful and creative defenses.
The key here may be that the Ravens ground game took a huge hit in August when offensive line coach Joe D’Alessandris passed away at the age of 70. He was arguably the best run blocking coach in the league and his loss could cause Baltimore’s rushing attack to take a hit early this year. Add that to the game being in Kansas City and this lands in the Chiefs column.
KC’s pick: Kansas City (-150 Bet365)
Confidence level: 3
Green Bay vs. Philadelphia (in Sao Paulo)
This is one of the tougher picks to make in Week 1 not only because these squads are very evenly matched talent-wise, but also because the game is taking place in Brazil.
Green Bay may want to turn this into pass-centric matchup due to having more quality wide receiver depth than any team in the NFL, but the key here is Philadelphia adding Saquon Barkley and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Mike McCarthy moved on from Moore because he said Moore won’t run the ball, but Moore is actually one of the most creative run play callers in the league. That’s why the Eagles brought him and Barkley in and since the ground game is the percentage way to go in an uncertain environment like this one, Philadelphia is the selection.
KC’s pick: Philadelphia (-130 BetMGM)
Confidence level: 3
Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Arthur Smith’s offense never quite took off in Atlanta, but he returns south with a Pittsburgh offense that has a running back tandem that should allow Smith to operate the kind of system he did with Derrick Henry in Tennessee.
That pairs well with a strong Steelers defense, but Atlanta may be the most improved team in the league due to bringing in Kirk Cousins and adding plenty of defensive talent. The Falcons are also going to rely heavily on their potential superstar running back Bijan Robinson. Combine those factors with this game being in Atlanta and it gives the Falcons a slight edge.
KC’s pick: Atlanta (-165 BetMGM)
Confidence level: 2
Arizona at Buffalo
Don’t sell Arizona short, as the Cardinals have a lot going for them. Prime on this is the fact that Kyler Murray has shown new dedication to his job, and he’ll get plenty of help from first-round draft pick Marvin Harrison Jr.
The Bills are still considered a favorite in the AFC, but Buffalo lost a ton of defensive talent and no longer have Stefon Diggs as a downfield threat. That means the talent disparity between these teams isn’t as wide as the 6.5-point spread in favor of Buffalo suggests, but the Bills still have Josh Allen and are at home, so Buffalo is the pick.
KC’s pick: Buffalo (-295 FanDuel)
Confidence level: 3
Houston at Indianapolis
Indianapolis used to be a house of horrors for the Texans, as at one point Houston lost 14 straight road matchup against the Colts, but that has changed of late, as the Texans are now on a two-game road win streak in this series.
A major part of that is the incredibly fast development of C.J. Stroud, who is already in the MVP conversation in only his second year in the league. The Texans have given Stroud even more talent via the acquisitions of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon, so this offense could be even better in 2024.
Indianapolis does get Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor back in the lineup, but Richardson is still very green, and Taylor likely won’t be enough to offset the Texans’ personnel edge, so Houston is the preferred option.
KC’s pick: Houston (-152 FanDuel)
Confidence level: 4
Jacksonville at Miami
The betting public is expecting this to be a high scoring game, as the over/under is currently set at 49 points. That’s understandable given that Miami has Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane, but don’t underestimate Raheem Mostert, as he actually outperformed Achane in many per game performance metrics last season.
Jacksonville will aim to counter this with some splash play candidates of their own, yet the reality is that, as talented as Trevor Lawrence, Christian Kirk, Travis Etienne Jr., and Evan Engram are, they just don’t have quite the home run ability of the aforementioned quartet. Mix that with Miami hosting this matchup and the Dolphins get the pick.
KC’s pick: Miami (-172 FanDuel)
Confidence level: 4
Minnesota at New York Giants
The Giants may have the worst offense in the NFL, as they lack talent at quarterback, running back and tight end. The news is a bit better at wide receiver, as Malik Nabers has elite physical skills that head coach Brian Daboll will be able to utilize, but that’s probably the only high spot on this platoon.
The Vikings have their own offensive woes in the form of Sam Darnold, the journeyman who has won the starting quarterback job in Minnesota, but this offense still has Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. That advantage should be enough to vault the Vikings to a close road win.
KC’s pick: Minnesota (-120 BetMGM)
Confidence level: 2
Dallas at Cleveland
This is the marquee matchup of the Sunday afternoon games, as both of these clubs were playoff squads last year and have the capacity to qualify for the postseason again this year.
The problem for Dallas is that the Cowboys didn’t do much to upgrade their roster following a crushing playoff loss to Green Bay. That has left Dallas with what may be the worst set of running backs in the league and a receiving corps that sees a huge talent drop off once you get past the incredible talents of CeeDee Lamb.
The Browns should be a better team personnel-wise for many reasons, not the least of which is the return of Deshaun Watson. Cleveland’s depth may take a while to impact the game, though, so this is close one in favor of the Browns.
KC’s pick: Cleveland (-135 Caesars)
Confidence level: 3
Washington at Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay nearly made it to the NFC Championship game last season, so it’s no surprise that the Buccaneers have doubled down on this roster in an effort to win another NFC South title. A notable change could be increased usage for backup running back Bucky Irving, as he could allow Rachaad White, who wore down from overuse last year, to stay at closer to 100 percent all season long.
By contrast, Washington is going through a complete organization overhaul that includes large scale roster changes, but the Commanders did get a potentially huge upgrade at quarterback with rookie Jayden Daniels. That will pay dividends long-term, but in the short-term Daniels may struggle on the road versus a stout Tampa Bay defense, so take Tampa Bay in this one.
KC’s pick: Tampa Bay (-175 BetMGM)
Confidence level: 4
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit
The Lions are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and it’s easy to see why. Detroit has a fantastic running back combo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, arguably the best wide receiver/tight end tandem in Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta and could get a huge vertical pass upgrade if Jameson Williams is finally able to play to his potential. Detroit also added plenty of defensive talent with DJ Reader and Carlton Davis upgrading two weaknesses on this squad.
The Rams could also be much improved if Cooper Kupp can stay healthy, as he and Puka Nacua can make the case to be the best 1-2 wide receiver combination. Former Michigan superstar Blake Corum can also make an immediate contribution and may help Kyren Williams avoid the 20+ carry games that wear him down.
This incredible list of offensive talent is why this game has the highest over/under on the board in Week 1. Shootouts tend to be 50/50 propositions, so this will be close, but the Lions get the pick in part due to having more overall offensive talent and because this game is at home.
KC’s pick: Detroit (-185 Bet365)
Confidence level: 3
New York Jets at San Francisco
There isn’t a more compelling Week 1 platoon matchup than the 49ers offense versus the Jets defense, as both of those groups are among the best in the league.
That clash could end up a draw, so this game will likely come down to how the New York offense fares versus the San Francisco defense. The Jets have Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, and Aaron Rodgers should be healthy and thus could return to something close to his Green Bay production level, but the New York offensive line leaves a lot to be desired. That Achilles’ Heel may end up as the difference maker and it is the primary reason San Francisco gets this pick.
KC’s pick: San Francisco (-200 BetMGM)
Confidence level: 3
KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that have gone 265-107-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers
No team is going through a more varied set of offensive changes than the Los Angeles Chargers, as Jim Harbaugh’s run the damn ball approach is a polar opposite of the approach this platoon used last year. The Chargers brought in the players needed to do this, as Gus Edwards and a fully healthy J.K. Dobbins have the potential to be one of the best thunder and lightning running back combinations in the NFL, but don’t think for a moment that Harbaugh will let Justin Herbert’s aerial skills go underutilized.
That’s a tall order for a Raiders team that has a new quarterback in Gardner Minshew II and a new lead back in Zamir White. Las Vegas has struggled in Los Angeles of late, having lost three straight there, and when that is added to the huge quarterback disparity, this pick lands in the Chargers column.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles (-160 BetMGM)
Confidence level: 6
Denver at Seattle
Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald has made it abundantly clear that his team is going to use the run-heavy approach Macdonald learned while coaching with Jim Harbaugh at Michigan. Seattle has the personnel to do this, as Kenneth Walker III is a fantastic power rusher and Zach Charbonnet is an underrated alternate option. The Seahawks also still have a tremendous wide receiver trio that can make a defense pay a heavy price to giving too much attention to stopping the run.
Denver’s approach is still up in the air, as head coach Sean Payton has been equally clear that pretty much every spot on this roster is up for grabs. That includes quarterback, where rookie Bo Nix takes over, and at running back, as the Broncos could use a committee approach there. The rookie QB aspect may be the most impactful factor in this pick, as asking Nix to make his first start against the 12s is a low percentage proposition, so Seattle gets this one.
KC’s pick: Seattle (-250 Caesars)
Confidence level: 7
Tennessee at Chicago
Chicago has been waiting for years for a franchise quarterback, and they may finally have found one in Caleb Williams. The Bears also decided to give Williams as much help as possible by adding Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to a receiving corps that already had DJ Moore and Cole Kmet.
The Titans don’t have anywhere near that aerial skill level, as they are relying on a combination of veterans (DeAndre Hopkins and Calvin Ridley) as well as an unproven passer in Will Levis. That doesn’t bode well for a road trip against a tough Chicago defense, so take the Bears by a notable margin here.
KC’s pick: Chicago (-190 FanDuel)
Confidence level: 7
New England at Cincinnati
Joe Burrow drew a lot of attention with his bleached buzzcut at the start of training camp, but the most notable part of his preseason is that Burrow played well during live game action and seems to show no signs of rust from last year’s wrist injury. It’s up in the air if Ja’Marr Chase will play this week, but Burrow’s health should allow the Bengals to keep their offense in gear even if Chase is out.
The Patriots have no such weapons on their side of the ball, as their best offensive player is probably running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who would be a platoon or committee candidate in most NFL backfields. New England’s defense also has its share of issues, and this game is in Cincinnati, so the Bengals easily land this selection.
KC’s pick: Cincinnati (-400 BetMGM)
Confidence level: 8
Carolina at New Orleans
It says something for Carolina’s offseason moves that the Panthers are only a four-point underdog in a road matchup against a New Orleans squad that nearly made the playoffs last year.
Unfortunately for Carolina, that optimism doesn’t quite hold up when reviewing these respective rosters, as Alvin Kamara was nearly as productive as Christian McCaffrey and Kyren Williams on a per play basis last year and the Saints have personnel edges at quarterback, wide receiver, and in many places on defense. This suggests that the point spread is not an accurate assessment, and that New Orleans should be favored by much more, which is reflected in the confidence level of their selection.
KC’s pick: New Orleans (-200 Bet365)
Confidence level: 7
