Here are my Week 10 picks. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 57-32 this year and are 278-172-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.

The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that are 35-14 this year and have netted a 300-121-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

Cincinnati at Baltimore

The most interesting part of Cincinnati’s win against Las Vegas last week is how angry Joe Burrow was on the Bengals sideline. This was the case even after Burrow had thrown his fifth touchdown pass. When asked about it later, Burrow indicated that he is not happy with that single game performance and is determined to get the team back into playoff contention. That’s exactly what the Bengals want to see out their quarterback and it should lead to another high scoring game from Cincinnati.

Unfortunately for the Bengals, Lamar Jackson is equally determined to win. Jackson also has more weapons around him, including the best running back in the league in Derrick Henry. This is also a short week road game for the Bengals. Add it up and the Ravens are more likely to be the victor in this scoreboard shootout.

KC’s pick: Baltimore

Confidence level: 5

New York Giants at Carolina

The Giants just went toe-to-toe with a Washington team that is one of the best in the league. New York was able to do this via a ground game that racked up 164 yards in Week 9 and that has gained 318 yards over the past two weeks. That’s a testament to Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s skills and the Giants also have Malik Nabers, whose 16 catches over the past two games show that he is starting to return to his earlier rookie impact form.

The Panthers just notched what looks to a big upset over New Orleans, but the reality of that game is that the Saints are very banged-up and have some of the worst advanced metrics in nearly every area. That shows Carolina should was probably at the same level as New Orleans, but the Giants big play potential gives New York an advantage, so take the Giants here.

KC’s pick: New York

Confidence level: 4

Pittsburgh at Washington

Pittsburgh looked to have made the right choice by switching to Russell Wilson at quarterback, but the Steelers have actually been trending as one of the top offenses in the NFL for a few weeks now. Pittsburgh has scored 95 points over the past three weeks and rushed for 499 yards in those games. The Steelers defense has also been terrific at stopping the run and racked up 10 takeaways in the past four games. Pittsburgh also gets the benefit of being well rested following a Week 9 bye.

Washington has won seven of its past eight games, but there have been some warning signs of late. The Commanders should have lost the Hail Maryland game, and then followed that up with a less than dominant win against a Giants team that isn’t in Washington’s class. Allowing 366 rush yards over the past two weeks is another issue that won’t help. Having noted that, the Commanders are fantastic at rushing the ball, haven’t turned the ball over since Week 5 and are at home, so Washington gets this one by a small margin.

KC’s pick: Washington

Confidence level: 1

New York Jets at Arizona

Don’t sell the Cardinals short. Their 5-4 record includes wins against some quality foes, and few teams are as well-coached or play with consistent effort levels. It’s also imperative for their opponents to not let Arizona’s ground game get moving, as the Cardinals have gained 169 or more rushing yards in four of their past six matchups.

The problem for Arizona is that Kyler Murray is just as bad on vertical passes as he was in the previous two seasons when he was arguably the worst downfield passer in the NFL. That trend won’t change against a Jets secondary that is finally playing to its talent level. Unfortunately for New York, they don’t stop the run well, having allowed 597 yards on the ground over the past four weeks. This is also a long road trip for a Jets team that is 1-4 on the road this year, so this one lands in the Cardinals column.

KC’s pick: Arizona

Confidence level: 3

Detroit at Houston

The most impressive part of Detroit’s win at Green Bay last week is that the Lions were able to play grind it out football in an outdoor game. That shows Detroit is built to win in every manner one can think of, as this team has already shown that it can win scoreboard shootouts and overpower defenses like no other team in the NFL.

Houston might have been able to keep up in a shootout game if the Texans were at full strength. That isn’t the case, as Houston has lost Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins (assuming he doesn’t make a last-minute comeback to play this week) and now has a receiving corps of Tank Dell, Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie III. That just doesn’t bode well for victory versus a team as complete as the Lions.

KC’s pick: Detroit

Confidence level: 5

Miami at Los Angeles Rams

The amazing part of Miami’s recent offensive resurgence is that it isn’t occurring due to huge plays from Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins passing game has been much more reliant on dink-and-dunk passes and De’Von Achane’s big play rushing ability that has resulted in Miami posting 299 yards on the ground since Tua Tagovailoa’s return.

The Rams offense has plenty of octane of its own with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but this offense can also rely on Demarcus Robinson, who has scored four touchdowns over the past two weeks. Kyren Williams is every bit the breakaway back that Achane is, so that nullifies Miami’s advantage there. Since neither defense seems to have a notable edge over the other, this one goes to Los Angeles on account of the home field tiebreaker.

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 1

KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that are 35-14 this year and have gone 300-121-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.