Here are my Week 10 picks. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 57-32 this year and are 278-172-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.
The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that are 35-14 this year and have netted a 300-121-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Now let’s get to this week’s picks!
Cincinnati at Baltimore
The most interesting part of Cincinnati’s win against Las Vegas last week is how angry Joe Burrow was on the Bengals sideline. This was the case even after Burrow had thrown his fifth touchdown pass. When asked about it later, Burrow indicated that he is not happy with that single game performance and is determined to get the team back into playoff contention. That’s exactly what the Bengals want to see out their quarterback and it should lead to another high scoring game from Cincinnati.
Unfortunately for the Bengals, Lamar Jackson is equally determined to win. Jackson also has more weapons around him, including the best running back in the league in Derrick Henry. This is also a short week road game for the Bengals. Add it up and the Ravens are more likely to be the victor in this scoreboard shootout.
KC’s pick: Baltimore
Confidence level: 5
New York Giants at Carolina
The Giants just went toe-to-toe with a Washington team that is one of the best in the league. New York was able to do this via a ground game that racked up 164 yards in Week 9 and that has gained 318 yards over the past two weeks. That’s a testament to Tyrone Tracy Jr.’s skills and the Giants also have Malik Nabers, whose 16 catches over the past two games show that he is starting to return to his earlier rookie impact form.
The Panthers just notched what looks to a big upset over New Orleans, but the reality of that game is that the Saints are very banged-up and have some of the worst advanced metrics in nearly every area. That shows Carolina should was probably at the same level as New Orleans, but the Giants big play potential gives New York an advantage, so take the Giants here.
KC’s pick: New York
Confidence level: 4
Pittsburgh at Washington
Pittsburgh looked to have made the right choice by switching to Russell Wilson at quarterback, but the Steelers have actually been trending as one of the top offenses in the NFL for a few weeks now. Pittsburgh has scored 95 points over the past three weeks and rushed for 499 yards in those games. The Steelers defense has also been terrific at stopping the run and racked up 10 takeaways in the past four games. Pittsburgh also gets the benefit of being well rested following a Week 9 bye.
Washington has won seven of its past eight games, but there have been some warning signs of late. The Commanders should have lost the Hail Maryland game, and then followed that up with a less than dominant win against a Giants team that isn’t in Washington’s class. Allowing 366 rush yards over the past two weeks is another issue that won’t help. Having noted that, the Commanders are fantastic at rushing the ball, haven’t turned the ball over since Week 5 and are at home, so Washington gets this one by a small margin.
KC’s pick: Washington
Confidence level: 1
New York Jets at Arizona
Don’t sell the Cardinals short. Their 5-4 record includes wins against some quality foes, and few teams are as well-coached or play with consistent effort levels. It’s also imperative for their opponents to not let Arizona’s ground game get moving, as the Cardinals have gained 169 or more rushing yards in four of their past six matchups.
The problem for Arizona is that Kyler Murray is just as bad on vertical passes as he was in the previous two seasons when he was arguably the worst downfield passer in the NFL. That trend won’t change against a Jets secondary that is finally playing to its talent level. Unfortunately for New York, they don’t stop the run well, having allowed 597 yards on the ground over the past four weeks. This is also a long road trip for a Jets team that is 1-4 on the road this year, so this one lands in the Cardinals column.
KC’s pick: Arizona
Confidence level: 3
Detroit at Houston
The most impressive part of Detroit’s win at Green Bay last week is that the Lions were able to play grind it out football in an outdoor game. That shows Detroit is built to win in every manner one can think of, as this team has already shown that it can win scoreboard shootouts and overpower defenses like no other team in the NFL.
Houston might have been able to keep up in a shootout game if the Texans were at full strength. That isn’t the case, as Houston has lost Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins (assuming he doesn’t make a last-minute comeback to play this week) and now has a receiving corps of Tank Dell, Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie III. That just doesn’t bode well for victory versus a team as complete as the Lions.
KC’s pick: Detroit
Confidence level: 5
Miami at Los Angeles Rams
The amazing part of Miami’s recent offensive resurgence is that it isn’t occurring due to huge plays from Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins passing game has been much more reliant on dink-and-dunk passes and De’Von Achane’s big play rushing ability that has resulted in Miami posting 299 yards on the ground since Tua Tagovailoa’s return.
The Rams offense has plenty of octane of its own with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, but this offense can also rely on Demarcus Robinson, who has scored four touchdowns over the past two weeks. Kyren Williams is every bit the breakaway back that Achane is, so that nullifies Miami’s advantage there. Since neither defense seems to have a notable edge over the other, this one goes to Los Angeles on account of the home field tiebreaker.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 1
KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that are 35-14 this year and have gone 300-121-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
New England at Chicago
The Bears seem to have taken a backward step of late, but let’s not forget that their losses over the past two weeks have been against a Washington team that is one of the top five teams in the league and an Arizona squad that is currently in first place in the NFC West. Chicago also would have defeated the Commanders if not for a huge defensive error on the Hail Maryland play.
This week affords the Bears a much more favorable matchup. New England has a mediocre passing game, and the Patriots rush defense has allowed 167+ rushing yards in four of the past five games. This is also Chicago’s first game at home following that Hail Mary debacle. Add it up and this is just what the Bears need to get back on track with a win.
KC’s pick: Chicago
Confidence level: 7
Buffalo at Indianapolis
The Bills are one of the most consistent teams in the league right now. Buffalo has scored 30+ points in three straight games, has generated a takeaway in every game this year and has only four giveaways on the entire season. Josh Allen has also shown an ability to keep the passing game going through a variety of receivers, thus making Buffalo’s aerial attack a lot tougher to stop.
By contrast, the Colts are one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL. Last week the Indianapolis passing attack couldn’t get going even with Joe Flacco under center and the run game tallied only 68 yards despite having Jonathan Taylor. Flacco’s getting another starting chance this week, but things don’t look to improve due to the matchup, so Buffalo gets this one.
KC’s pick: Buffalo
Confidence level: 6
Minnesota at Jacksonville
Last week’s dominant defensive performance at Indianapolis brought to mind the NFL Films clip from earlier this year where Brock Purdy told Minnesota defensive coordinator Brian Flores how great his defensive play calling was.
That’s bad news for a Jaguars offense that will likely be starting Mac Jones at quarterback this week. Minnesota also has plenty of offensive firepower and T.J. Hockenson should be a full go versus a Jacksonville team that is terrible at covering tight ends. Merge this all together and it should equal a convincing Minnesota victory.
KC’s pick: Minnesota
Confidence level: 8
Denver at Kansas City
Peyton Manning said during the Chiefs-Buccaneers ManningCast that Patrick Mahomes told him he already knows how DeAndre Hopkins is going to adjust to a coverage. That’s part of why Hopkins had a great game versus Tampa Bay and if that starts to be par for the course, this could be one of the most dangerous passing combinations in the NFL.
It might be said that Denver’s defense was up to the task of slowing Hopkins before last week, but Baltimore’s thorough destruction of the Broncos defense shows that maybe Denver’s reputation was a mirage based on facing weak foes. Combine that with Travis Kelce’s recent resurgence, Kansas City’s ability to stop the run and this game being at Arrowhead and this is a Chiefs selection.
KC’s pick: Kansas City
Confidence level: 6
Atlanta at New Orleans
One thing that stood out during this week’s advanced metric review is just how awful the Saints were in myriad categories. This team has been terrible at stopping the run, covering receivers, rushing the quarterback and posting offensive points. It shows that the head coaching change wasn’t a matter of a couple of weaknesses, but rather a full-scale collapse.
The Falcons are headed in the opposite direction. Yes, they have posted great numbers versus subpar foes, but it’s tough to have qualms about a team that has scored 26 or more points in five of the past six games. Atlanta does give up too many yards on the ground, and that will give New Orleans a path to victory, the Falcons have many more of those paths and thus get this pick.
KC’s pick: Atlanta
Confidence level: 6
San Francisco at Tampa Bay
It’s got to be scary for the rest of the NFL that in Week 8 San Francisco posted 30 points and 469 offensive yards against Dallas and now get Deebo Samuel Sr. and Christian McCaffrey back in the lineup following a Week 9 bye.
If those factors weren’t enough, the 49ers are also facing a Tampa Bay defense that has been among the worst in the league this year. Baker Mayfield has shown he can still get the Buccaneers offense to keep up in a moderate scoreboard shootout even without Mike Evans or Chris Godwin in the lineup, but there is very little chance that Mayfield and company can generate enough to overcome the caliber of points that the 49ers are apt to post in this matchup.
KC’s pick: San Francisco
Confidence level: 7
Tennessee at Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers may have the best defense in the NFL this year. Los Angeles has allowed 17 or fewer points in every game sans one, and that was 20 points allowed versus Pittsburgh back in Week 3. The Chargers are also getting a lot more out of their passing game of late and have turned the ball over zero times in all but two games this year.
That’s not a standard that Tennessee looks to be capable of living up to. The Titans do run the ball well, although they are going to wear Tony Pollard out before long if they don’t let up on him, having given Pollard 31 scrimmage plays last week. What they don’t do is throw the ball well or score many points. Add to that the Titans penchant for not taking the ball away and giving the ball away too often and this should result in a solid win for the Chargers.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 6
Philadelphia at Dallas
The Eagles offense understandably gets the bulk of the attention paid to this team, but over the past few weeks the Philadelphia defense is playing as well or better than the offense. The Eagles are shutting down the run, have great pass rushing and pass coverage metrics and tallied five takeaways over the past two games.
The Dallas offense will need to get adjusted to life without Dak Prescott under center. That’s not good since the Cowboys rushing attack has been uninspiring. The Dallas defense inspires in an entirely different way, as this platoon makes more than enough mistakes to fire up opposing offensive coordinators. Mash these trends together and it should equal a big Eagles win.
KC’s pick: Philadelphia
Confidence level: 8