Here are my Week 12 picks. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that were 9-0 in Week 11, 69-35 this year and 290-175-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.

The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that are 45-17 this year and have netted a 310-124-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

Tennessee at Houston

The Texans are a tough team to figure out. Over the past three weeks they crushed a Dallas squad that is collapsing, went toe-to-toe with a Detroit team that may be the best in the league and yet lost to a Jets franchise that just fired its general manager and will likely go through whole offseason changes. It’s not a matter of playing down to the competition level, but rather is just inconsistent performance.

The Titans are flip side of that coin, in that they just aren’t very good. Tennessee has scored 20+ points only twice and one of those games was exactly 20 points. Will Levis is one of the worst starting quarterbacks and their rushing attack just posted a season low 33 yards last week against Minnesota. The Titans have some talent on the defensive side of the ball, but there just isn’t enough of a case to take them here even if Houston has one of its off days.

KC’s pick: Houston

Confidence level: 3

Dallas at Washington

There are some positive elements that show up when looking at the advanced metrics for Dallas. The Cowboys cornerbacks and safeties have solid to good pass coverage numbers and the Dallas pass rush is generating both sacks and hurries in large quantities. That could be a formula for success under the right circumstances.

Washington could afford the Cowboys that opportunity. The Commanders have given up a ridiculous 734 rushing yards over the past four weeks. The Washington pass game has leveled off since Jayden Daniels’ rib injury a few weeks ago, and the Commanders have gained only 153 rushing yards over the past two games. Washington still has a lot more on-field and coaching talent than Dallas and this game is a home matchup for the Commanders, so this pick leans in their direction, but the aforementioned issue result in a lower-than-expected confidence level.

KC’s pick: Washington

Confidence level: 3

San Francisco at Green Bay

This is the toughest pick on the Week 12 board. The 49ers may have more offensive talent than any team in the league, yet over the past two weeks San Francisco has scored only 40 points despite facing two below average defenses. Some of this is due to injury, but some of it is also due to Christian McCaffrey playing at a high level, but not at his elite CMC level.

Green Bay isn’t playing to its talent level either. The Packers have one of the best wide receiver corps in the NFL, a top ten running back in Josh Jacobs and a top ten quarterback in Jordan Love, yet this team has scored only 34 points over the previous two weeks. Green Bay’s defense has also fallen back, posting only two takeaways in the past four games after racking up 17 in the first six weeks.

The 49ers probably have a slight edge talent-wise, but this game is in Green Bay and that can help offset that edge. Add it up and it’s a coin toss that goes to the Packers due to being at home.

KC’s pick: Green Bay

Confidence level: 1

Arizona at Seattle

The Cardinals have been a well-coached team during the entire Jonathan Gannon tenure. That is now paying dividends, as no club is getting more out of its talent level than Arizona. The Cardinals are on a four-game win streak and have been playing better every week in that span. The capstone to that was outscoring Chicago and the New York Jets by a combined 60-15 over the past two weeks.

Seattle is fired up by its Week 11 win over San Francisco, but that game said more about the 49ers not playing to their talent level than it did about Seattle. The Seahawks defense gives up far too many first downs and rushing yards, which indicates a bend but don’t break approach that will be hard pressed to work against a team playing as well as the Cardinals are.

KC’s pick: Arizona

Confidence level: 5

Philadelphia at Los Angeles Rams

The Eagles have the best defense in the NFL right now. Over the past four weeks, this group has generated 11 takeaways and allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each contest. Philadelphia’s secondary players have all posted superb pass coverage metrics and none of their opponents have tallied as much as 300 net offensive yards.

The Rams offense have been revitalized since the return of Cooper Kupp, but the Los Angeles ground game has regressed over the past four weeks. That combination has worked in part because the Rams defense has posted seven takeaways over the past three games, but this is still a Los Angeles squad that is 1-5 when allowing 23 or more points.

The Eagles are very likely to score that many points and since the Philadelphia defense is stingy enough to keep the Rams aerial attack in check, this is an Eagles selection.

KC’s pick: Philadelphia

Confidence level: 4

Baltimore at Los Angeles Chargers

There’s no doubt that the Ravens offense is supremely talented, yet it is also a fact that over half of Lamar Jackson’s touchdown passes this year occurred in three games against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. Those are terrible defenses and when Baltimore ran into a Pittsburgh defense it couldn’t overwhelm, the result was a season low 16 points and an 18-16 defeat.

The Chargers defense may not be quite as strong as Pittsburgh’s, but it is darn close. Prior to last week, when Los Angeles gave up 27 points to a Bengals passing attack that is much better than Baltimore’s, the Chargers had allowed more than 17 points only one time. The Ravens defense has a big problem covering passes, and Justin Herbert has thrown for 279 or more yards in four of the past five games. That’s the biggest path to victory in this game and when it is added to the Chargers being at home, this is a Los Angeles pick.

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 4

KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that are 45-17 this year and have gone 310-124-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland

Last week the Steelers defense did what it seemed that no one in the league can do, which is to slow down Baltimore’s offense. To be fair, it did take a couple of missed field goals for Pittsburgh to claim victory, but that performance showed that the Steelers can go toe-to-toe with any offense in the NFL.

Cleveland’s offense has been much improved since Jameis Winston became the starting quarterback. His presence has turned Jerry Jeudy and David Njoku into big play contributors. Unfortunately, Winston still has a penchant for throwing picks. The Browns defense has also allowed 24+ points in three straight games and just allowed a season high 35 points to the Saints.

It is a short week road matchup for Pittsburgh, which is an impediment, but the Steelers are motivated to get back to the days when they dominated this series. That and the talent edge should be more than enough to deliver a win for the Steelers.

KC’s pick: Pittsburgh

Confidence level: 7

Kansas City at Carolina

This Kansas City club showed that it isn’t an all-time great team, but let’s not sell this squad short. The Chiefs are still dominant against the run, having allowed 104 or fewer yards in every game since Week 1, and have scored 26 or more points on six occasions. Patrick Mahomes and DeAndre Hopkins have also shown that they can post superb numbers when facing subpar foes.

The Panthers have won two straight games, but they still certainly qualify as a subpar foe. Carolina has allowed 167 or more rushing yards in four of the past five games, have at least one giveaway in all but one game this year and have scored more than 20 points on only three occasions. This isn’t apt to be a fourth game with 20+ points and since Andy Reid will run the ball when the occasion calls for it, this is a Chiefs selection.

KC’s pick: Kansas City

Confidence level: 8

Minnesota at Chicago

It’s clear that the offensive coordinator change was exactly what the Bears needed to turn that platoon around. Chicago ran for 179 yards against the Packers last week, their second highest rushing yardage total of the year, and threw for more than 200 yards for the first time since Week 6.

That success may be short-lived due to facing a Brian Flores defense. The Vikings have been stifling against the run, allowing only 157 rushing yards in the past three games combined and giving up a season low 33 yards versus Tennessee last week. Those games weren’t against weak rushing teams, either, as the Colts, Jaguars and Titans all have quality running backs. Combine that with the Vikings offensive talent and this one goes to Minnesota.

KC’s pick: Minnesota

Confidence level: 6

Detroit at Indianapolis

Only 29 teams in NFL history have posted 500+ points in a season. The Lions are currently on pace to rack up 571 points and their recent pace suggests that a 600-point season isn’t out of reach. Detroit has done this while also protecting the ball, as this team has only five giveaways outside of that Houston debacle in Week 10 and has five games with zero giveaways since Week 4.

The Colts offense did look a lot better last week due to Anthony Richardson finally putting up solid passing numbers. The caveat here is that the Jets defense has played well below its talent level of late. Detroit’s defense is playing better every week and allowed only 97 rushing yards over the past two weeks combined. That trait should keep the Indianapolis rush game in check and prevent the Colts from keeping up with the powerhouse Lions offense.

KC’s pick: Detroit

Confidence level: 6

New England at Miami

It may not seem like the Miami offense is back to full speed (just ask any fantasy manager with Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle their roster) but the reality is that the Dolphins have scored 111 or more points in the four games since Tua Tagovailoa returned. Miami also just tallied a season high 34 points against the Raiders and tallied 27 or more points in three of those games with Tagovailoa in the lineup.

New England has been a lot better on offense with Drake Maye under center, but that’s a relative term. This is still a team that has scored 20+ points only four times. A lot of the Patriots production occurs on the ground, something that will be tested versus a Dolphins defense that has allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in four straight games despite facing James Conner, James Cook and Kyren Williams in that span. Add it up and this looks like a Miami win.

KC’s pick: Miami

Confidence level: 6

Tampa Bay at New York Giants

The Giants offense wasn’t playing at a great level with Daniel Jones under center, but that platoon did post 488 rushing yards over the past three weeks and tallied 57 points in that span. The move to Tommy DeVito may be a lateral move at best, but if it results in any drop-off (which it probably will), then New York will have a truly dismal offense.

The Buccaneers offense did lose something when Chris Godwin and Mike Evans were both injured in the Week 7 game against Baltimore, but Tampa Bay still managed to post 70 points over the past three games, with a minimum of 20 points in each game. Evans is now on track to return this week, so the offensive production pace should only go up. The Buccaneers defense is terrible, and a powerhouse offense could win a scoreboard shootout under these circumstances, but the Giants aren’t that offense, so this is a projected Tampa Bay win.

KC’s pick: Tampa Bay

Confidence level: 6

Denver at Las Vegas

Bo Nix is playing so well that he is now among the top ten players in the latest NFL MVP odds. That he is doing this with a receiving corps that, outside of Courtland Sutton, probably wouldn’t rate a starter on at least 70 percent of NFL teams shows just how talented Nix is. Denver also has a fantastic defense that has allowed more than 18 points only two times since Week 1 and just gave up a season low six points to a very talented Atlanta offense.

The Raiders coaching staff is talented and is trying many things to solve the team’s problems, but there is only so much coaches can do to overcome abysmal quarterback play. Given that Las Vegas has allowed 75 points over the past two weeks, this game will move Nix even further up that NFL MVP odds chart.

KC’s pick: Denver

Confidence level: 7