Here are my Week 12 picks. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that were 9-0 in Week 11, 69-35 this year and 290-175-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.

The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that are 45-17 this year and have netted a 310-124-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.

Now let’s get to this week’s picks!

Tennessee at Houston

The Texans are a tough team to figure out. Over the past three weeks they crushed a Dallas squad that is collapsing, went toe-to-toe with a Detroit team that may be the best in the league and yet lost to a Jets franchise that just fired its general manager and will likely go through whole offseason changes. It’s not a matter of playing down to the competition level, but rather is just inconsistent performance.

The Titans are flip side of that coin, in that they just aren’t very good. Tennessee has scored 20+ points only twice and one of those games was exactly 20 points. Will Levis is one of the worst starting quarterbacks and their rushing attack just posted a season low 33 yards last week against Minnesota. The Titans have some talent on the defensive side of the ball, but there just isn’t enough of a case to take them here even if Houston has one of its off days.

KC’s pick: Houston

Confidence level: 3

Dallas at Washington

There are some positive elements that show up when looking at the advanced metrics for Dallas. The Cowboys cornerbacks and safeties have solid to good pass coverage numbers and the Dallas pass rush is generating both sacks and hurries in large quantities. That could be a formula for success under the right circumstances.

Washington could afford the Cowboys that opportunity. The Commanders have given up a ridiculous 734 rushing yards over the past four weeks. The Washington pass game has leveled off since Jayden Daniels’ rib injury a few weeks ago, and the Commanders have gained only 153 rushing yards over the past two games. Washington still has a lot more on-field and coaching talent than Dallas and this game is a home matchup for the Commanders, so this pick leans in their direction, but the aforementioned issue result in a lower-than-expected confidence level.

KC’s pick: Washington

Confidence level: 3

San Francisco at Green Bay

This is the toughest pick on the Week 12 board. The 49ers may have more offensive talent than any team in the league, yet over the past two weeks San Francisco has scored only 40 points despite facing two below average defenses. Some of this is due to injury, but some of it is also due to Christian McCaffrey playing at a high level, but not at his elite CMC level.

Green Bay isn’t playing to its talent level either. The Packers have one of the best wide receiver corps in the NFL, a top ten running back in Josh Jacobs and a top ten quarterback in Jordan Love, yet this team has scored only 34 points over the previous two weeks. Green Bay’s defense has also fallen back, posting only two takeaways in the past four games after racking up 17 in the first six weeks.

The 49ers probably have a slight edge talent-wise, but this game is in Green Bay and that can help offset that edge. Add it up and it’s a coin toss that goes to the Packers due to being at home.

KC’s pick: Green Bay

Confidence level: 1

Arizona at Seattle

The Cardinals have been a well-coached team during the entire Jonathan Gannon tenure. That is now paying dividends, as no club is getting more out of its talent level than Arizona. The Cardinals are on a four-game win streak and have been playing better every week in that span. The capstone to that was outscoring Chicago and the New York Jets by a combined 60-15 over the past two weeks.

Seattle is fired up by its Week 11 win over San Francisco, but that game said more about the 49ers not playing to their talent level than it did about Seattle. The Seahawks defense gives up far too many first downs and rushing yards, which indicates a bend but don’t break approach that will be hard pressed to work against a team playing as well as the Cardinals are.

KC’s pick: Arizona

Confidence level: 5

Philadelphia at Los Angeles Rams

The Eagles have the best defense in the NFL right now. Over the past four weeks, this group has generated 11 takeaways and allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in each contest. Philadelphia’s secondary players have all posted superb pass coverage metrics and none of their opponents have tallied as much as 300 net offensive yards.

The Rams offense have been revitalized since the return of Cooper Kupp, but the Los Angeles ground game has regressed over the past four weeks. That combination has worked in part because the Rams defense has posted seven takeaways over the past three games, but this is still a Los Angeles squad that is 1-5 when allowing 23 or more points.

The Eagles are very likely to score that many points and since the Philadelphia defense is stingy enough to keep the Rams aerial attack in check, this is an Eagles selection.

KC’s pick: Philadelphia

Confidence level: 4

Baltimore at Los Angeles Chargers

There’s no doubt that the Ravens offense is supremely talented, yet it is also a fact that over half of Lamar Jackson’s touchdown passes this year occurred in three games against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. Those are terrible defenses and when Baltimore ran into a Pittsburgh defense it couldn’t overwhelm, the result was a season low 16 points and an 18-16 defeat.

The Chargers defense may not be quite as strong as Pittsburgh’s, but it is darn close. Prior to last week, when Los Angeles gave up 27 points to a Bengals passing attack that is much better than Baltimore’s, the Chargers had allowed more than 17 points only one time. The Ravens defense has a big problem covering passes, and Justin Herbert has thrown for 279 or more yards in four of the past five games. That’s the biggest path to victory in this game and when it is added to the Chargers being at home, this is a Los Angeles pick.

KC’s pick: Los Angeles

Confidence level: 4

KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that are 45-17 this year and have gone 310-124-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.