Here are my Week 13 picks. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that are 71-39 this year and 292-179-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.
The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that are 51-18 this year and have netted a 316-125-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Now let’s get to this week’s picks!
Miami at Green Bay
Miami has racked up 68 points over the past two weeks despite Tyreek Hill catching 12 passes for only 109 yards in those contests. This shows just how much upside the Dolphins offense still has and is a testament to how impactful Tua Tagovailoa is when healthy. Miami’s rush defense has also been tremendous, having allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards in five straight games despite playing against some very talented running backs in most of those games.
Green Bay is a very well-coached team with a ton of skill position talent. The Packers also have a defense that is highly adept at generating takeaways. The problem for Green Bay is they haven’t fared well when allowing 24 or more points. The Packers are 1-3 when giving up 24+ points, and 7-0 when allowing fewer than 24 points. That might seem to portend for a Miami pick, but the Dolphins are 0-5 when allowing 24 or more points and 5-1 when giving up fewer than 24 points.
Since this game is trending in the shootout direction, and since Green Bay is also at home, those factors are enough to slant this one towards the Packers by a small margin.
KC’s pick: Green Bay
Confidence level: 1
Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta
The Chargers allowed 57 points over the past two weeks because of two issues. The first is facing Joe Burrow and a Bengals offense that has to go full bore through the air to offset a terrible defense. The second is facing a Baltimore offense that made Los Angeles have to play base defense quite often, which, as Bill Belichick pointed out on the ManningCast, is something the Chargers don’t do very often.
Atlanta does not present Los Angeles with either of those issues. The Falcons like to run the ball with superstar Bijan Robinson and counterpunch through the air when defenses aim to stop the run. That’s not an approach that will likely generate another game with 27+ points allowed for the Chargers.
That will be a problem for the Falcons, as Los Angeles has averaged 27.4 points per game over the past five weeks. Atlanta hasn’t allowed fewer than 20 points since Week 1, so scoring won’t be an issue for the Chargers. Add these factors together and it should result in a Los Angeles win.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 3
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
The Bengals are in a tough spot. Their defense is among the worst in the NFL, as Cincinnati ranks 28th in points allowed per game. The Bengals aim to offset that with a hugely aggressive passing attack that has helped Cincinnati post 33 or more points five times this season. One would think that is enough to generate victories, but the Bengals are 2-5 when allowing 25 or more points and 2-2 when giving up fewer than 25 points.
The Steelers offense made a regular habit of scoring 25+ points for a while there, especially after Russell Wilson took over as quarterback. That hasn’t been the case the past two weeks, with Pittsburgh scoring only 37 points in that span, but this Bengals matchup should return the Steelers to the land of 25+ points. That’s a low percentage play for Cincinnati, so this is a Pittsburgh selection.
KC’s pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence level: 4
Houston at Jacksonville
772 yards. That’s what the Jacksonville Jaguars have allowed versus the run over the past four games. This shows that the defensive debacle that was the Week 11 destruction against Detroit was only the tip of the proverbial iceberg of incompetence that is the Jacksonville defense right now.
Houston has an inconsistent rushing offense, but this group racked up 141 yards against the Cowboys in Week 11, 187 yards versus the Jets in Week 9, and 334 combined yards against the Patriots and Packers in Weeks 6-7. Joe Mixon should have field day against this Jaguars front and when that’s combined with the offensive issues Jacksonville’s had (which will only be partially resolved with the return of the banged-up Trevor Lawrence) the result should be a Texans victory.
KC’s pick: Houston
Confidence level: 5
Arizona at Minnesota
The Vikings defense is a flip of the coin. On the one side is Brian Flores, whose creative game plans are feared and respected throughout the league. On the other side is the in-game adjustments other teams are able to make against a Flores defense. That led to Chicago’s comeback last week that nearly led to a Bears win after Minnesota seemingly had the game put away.
The Cardinals were a scoring machine in Weeks 8-10, scoring 28+ points in each game, but they did this against some subpar defenses. The Vikings are not a subpar defense, and even if Arizona is able to figure out the Flores schemes later in the game, Kyler Murray’s highly inconsistent (and sometimes downright atrocious) vertical pass production will limit the Cardinals comeback ability. Merge that with this game being in Minnesota and this one goes to the Vikings.
KC’s pick: Minnesota
Confidence level: 4
Indianapolis at New England
The magic number in this game seems to be 21. The Colts are 2-6 when allowing 21 or more points, and 3-2 when scoring 21 or more points. By contrast, the Patriots are 1-7 when allowing 21 or more points, yet only 1-2 when scoring 21 or more points.
That latter won-loss record is the result of New England’s inability to score that many points on a regular basis. The Patriots have done this only three times all season yet have allowed 62 points over the past two games.
Indianapolis scored 28 points against the Jets two weeks ago and seems to be getting its offense in gear with Anthony Richardson. That should lead to a 21+ point performance from the Colts, which makes Indianapolis the percentage play.
KC’s pick: Indianapolis
Confidence level: 3
Seattle at New York Jets
Seattle has a ton of offensive talent, with Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and D.K. Metcalf providing plenty of big-play ability. That hasn’t translated into consistent scoring of late, with the Seahawks posting only 66 points over the past four week and tallying no more than 20 points in any of those games. Mike Macdonald’s defense has been able to overcome this the past two weeks, but it’s an issue that seems to be a recurring problem.
The Jets defense could be just what is needed to resolve this. New York is playing well below its talent level on this side of the ball, having allowed 59 points over the past two games and 23+ points in six of the past seven. That could turn this game into a shootout, especially since Aaron Rodgers just had a bye week to heal up from the ailments that have been slowing him this season.
This is a combination that could go either way, so the Jets get the tiebreaker via home field advantage.
KC’s pick: New York
Confidence level: 1
Tennessee at Washington
Don’t sell Tennessee short due to its 3-8 record. The Titans have won two of their last four games, with one of those wins being against Houston, and stayed competitive in losses against talented Minnesota and Los Angeles Chargers squads. Will Levis is finally looking like a solid quarterback and the Titans rush defense allowed only 122 yards in the past two games despite facing Aaron Jones and Joe Mixon.
Washington hasn’t been the same since Jayden Daniels injured his ribs against Chicago in Week 8. It isn’t all Daniels’ fault, though, as the Commanders rush defense allowed 743 yards in Weeks 8-11.
Tennessee can test that weakness with Tony Pollard, and Washington may be down to its third string running back in this one. That’s a recipe for a possible upset, but with Washington being at home and having a slight personnel edge, this one goes to the Commanders by a marginal margin.
KC’s pick: Washington
Confidence level: 1
Tampa Bay at Carolina
The Bryce Young story is hitting a good chapter. After being benched for Andy Dalton earlier this year, Young has bounced back of late. He led the Panthers to a 27-point performance against the Chiefs last week and could generate another strong game versus a subpar Tampa Bay secondary.
As improved as Young is, he doesn’t have the capability to be as prolific as Baker Mayfield has been this season. Mayfield racked up 294 passing yards against the Giants last week and has tallied 294+ aerial yards in four of Tampa Bay’s last six games. That gives him an edge over Young’s upside capacity and that should be enough to generate a Tampa Bay victory.
KC’s pick: Tampa Bay
Confidence level: 3
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans
This is a game of two teams trending in the right direction. The Rams just weren’t the same team without Cooper Kupp in the lineup. Since he returned in Week 8, Los Angeles is 3-2 and has scored 26 or more points on three occasions. The Rams offense could be even more productive if Kyren Williams, who hasn’t posted 100 yards rushing since Week 5, finds his way back into the triple-digit rush column.
The Saints may provide a favorable path for Williams, having allowed 122 or more rushing yards in five of the past seven weeks. New Orleans is doing much better on offense of late, having rushed for 197 yards against Carolina in Week 9 and 214 yards against Cleveland in Week 11, but this group is still just a bit too reliant on big plays.
This is a case of high percentage versus home runs. The high percentage is the pick, but since this is in New Orleans, the Rams gets this one by a slim margin.
KC’s pick: Los Angeles
Confidence level: 1
Philadelphia at Baltimore
It’s tough to overstate just how incredible the Philadelphia ground game has been of late. The Eagles have gained an astounding 1,396 rushing yards over the past six games. They have tallied a minimum of 161 yards in that span and have posted 228 or more on four occasions. What makes this more incredible is that Philadelphia turned the ball over zero times in four of those games. They also didn’t have to rely much on a passing game that has arguably the best starting wide receiver tandem in the league in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Baltimore’s rushing attack was that great earlier this year, but over the past five games the Ravens have gained just 686 rushing yards. That’s a great number but it pales in comparison to what the Eagles have achieved. The Ravens can’t match Philadelphia’s wide receiver corps, either.
Add that to the Eagles having arguably the best defense in the NFL over the past month (and maybe even longer than that) and this is a Philadelphia pick.
KC’s pick: Philadelphia
Confidence level: 3
KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that are 51-18 this year and have gone 316-125-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
Chicago at Detroit
The Lions are currently on pace to score 556 points this season. To put that into perspective, only 29 teams in NFL history have scored 500 or more points in a campaign. What makes this even more incredible is that this isn’t a matter of a few games skewing the sample size. Detroit has scored 24 or more points in every game since Week 4 and has tallied 30 or more points in that span five times.
The Bears offense has picked up steam of late, but Chicago also has to face a Lions defense that has been lights out of late. That trend should keep the Bears to a reasonable point total and since Chicago has allowed 50 points over the past two games, Detroit should hit the 30+ point mark that leads to a victory here.
KC’s pick: Detroit
Confidence level: 7
New York Giants at Dallas
When Dallas was playing on Monday night two weeks ago, Bill Belichick pointed out that CeeDee Lamb has been showing tremendous leadership abilities. Lamb was running decoy routes at full speed to help other receivers get open, was working to get open on his routes and was being a team leader in many other ways. That type of effort level showed up last week in the entire Cowboys squad, and it is why Dallas pulled off a big upset over Washington.
The Giants do not have that effort level throughout their club. This team in many ways looks like it already wants the season to be over. Combine that with Tommy DeVito’s injury, the Cowboys energy level and this game being in Dallas and this one easily goes to the Cowboys.
KC’s pick: Dallas
Confidence level: 7
Las Vegas at Kansas City
Andy Reid is a pass-centric coach if there ever was one, but he’s not averse to calling running plays when the situation calls for it. That was the case last week in a favorable rush defense matchup against Carolina, and it led to the Chiefs rushing for 165 yards, which is the second highest single-game total by Kansas City this season and led to the Chiefs scoring 30+ points for only the second time this year.
The Raiders don’t present the same caliber of rush defense matchup, but with the Chiefs getting back Isiah Pacheco to go along with Kareem Hunt, Kansas City has one of the best platoon combinations in the NFL. Add that to a recently revitalized passing attack and the Chiefs could hit 30 points for a second consecutive week.
Las Vegas has scored 24+ points only two times this season and has never posted 30+ points. That likely won’t change with Aidan O’Connell taking over for the injured Gardner Minshew II, so this is a Kansas City pick.
KC’s pick: Kansas City
Confidence level: 9
San Francisco at Buffalo
The 49ers have many issues, but the biggest may be that Christian McCaffrey just isn’t what he used to be. Some of that may be due to San Francisco’s offensive injuries, yet the reality is that right now he’s not the CMC who was capable of taking over a game. The regression of Deebo Samuel isn’t helping, nor is a slew of injuries around the team that have caused San Francisco to be a good (maybe very good at times) but not a great team.
Buffalo is on the verge of being a great team. The Bills have scored 30 or more points in five straight games, have generated 11 takeaways in that span and have Josh Allen playing at maybe the best level of his career. Buffalo is also quite capable of going into scoreboard shootout mode and winning, having generated a 9-0 record when scoring 23 or more points. Since the 49ers don’t look to have that caliber of offensive firepower, this one goes to the Bills.
KC’s pick: Buffalo
Confidence level: 6
Cleveland at Denver
Bo Nix has the Offensive Rookie of the Year award just about wrapped up right now and he’s also a viable longshot NFL MVP candidate. That he is on pace to throw for just over 3,600 yards with a receiving corps consisting of Courtland Sutton (who is having a fantastic season) and no names such as Devaughn Vele, Marvin Mims Jr. and Tony Franklin says just how well Nix has adapted to the Sean Payton system. Denver’s defense has also stepped up with 13 sacks and only 41 offensive points allowed over the past three weeks.
The Browns did step up last week versus a Pittsburgh team that didn’t respond well to a short week road game in a bad weather scenario. This game does not meet any of those circumstances and since the Broncos have also been a shutdown group in rush defense (only 176 yards allowed over the past three weeks) this is a Denver selection.
KC’s pick: Denver
Confidence level: 7