Here are my Week 14 picks. The picks with a confidence level of 1-5 (a set of selections that were 10-1 in Week 13 and, 81-40 this year and 302-180-1 since 2022) will be available to all NFL Pickwatch readers.
The selections with a 6+ confidence level, a group of games that were 5-0 last week, 56-18 this year and have netted a 321-125-2 record since 2020, will be available exclusively to Pickwatch VIP subscribers. Pickwatch VIP is a great service that allows subscribers to download the best expert data in the industry, see team-by-team winners for every expert, and provides access to Upset Watch, which has been the ultimate cheat code to beat the sportsbooks over the last seven years. Combine those elements with the top level of my weekly picks and it makes for a must-subscribe service for anyone serious about betting.
Now let’s get to this week’s picks!
Green Bay at Detroit
This is a quandary for Green Bay. When these teams played in Week 9, Detroit went to Lambeau Field and played a slugfest ground game. The Packers aimed to match, and it didn’t work, which is why the Lions claimed a 24-14 victory.
The Packers may try to mix things up and go through the air this time, but that’s not a plus approach versus a Detroit defense that has three players with a yards per target of under 5.0 since Week 10 (per Stathead). The Lions are also playing some of the best rush defense in the league right now, so Green Bay will have trouble going that route.
Detroit’s offense has been on a roll all season and doubly so since that Week 9 contest. That provides the Lions with more paths to victory and grants them this pick.
KC’s pick: Detroit
Confidence level: 4
Atlanta at Minnesota
This is one of the tougher calls of Week 14. Both teams are struggling offensively. Kirk Cousins is playing so badly that there are calls for him to be benched for Michael Penix. The Vikings just posted their lowest net offensive yardage total of the 2024 season and second lowest rushing total.
The Falcons overcame this last week with a strong defensive performance against the Chargers, allowing seasons lows in points allowed (17), total net yards (187), net passing yards and rushing yards. The problem here is that performance is very much an outlier and thus difficult to project for a second straight week.
The Vikings defense has been much more consistent, posting at least one takeaway in every game this year and racking up its share of shutdown performances. That’s a testament to Brian Flores’ gameplans and when those are added to this game being in Minnesota, this is a Vikings selection.
KC’s pick: Minnesota
Confidence level: 2
New Orleans at New York Giants
The Saints have proven without a doubt of late that they can run the ball with success. New Orleans has racked up 143 or more rushing yards in three of the past four games. Alvin Kamara is holding up quite well to the bell cow work volume and that should result in a big day for him against a Giants defense that has given up 121 or more rushing yards in seven straight games.
New York will aim to offset that with passes to Malik Nabers, but relying on third string quarterback Drew Lock will limit the value of those throws. The net result of all of this should be a low scoring game that favors the bigger play ability of the Saints offense, but not by much.
KC’s pick: New Orleans
Confidence level: 2
Cleveland at Pittsburgh
Bill Parcells used to say that if you want to win a game where you are outmanned, try to turn the game into a scoreboard shootout. The Browns did that on Monday night against Denver and it kept Cleveland in the game until very late. That success will motivate the Browns to try to take the same approach against a Pittsburgh team that was in its own shootout against Cincinnati, winning 44-38.
Mike Tomlin knows all of this and will do all he can to prevent this scoreboard shootout from taking place. That will mean a huge dose of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren rushes. It will also mean coverages that push Cleveland to run the ball as well. If Jameis Winston tries to throw versus those coverages, he will likely repeat his three-interception mark against Denver. If the Browns run the ball, they are playing into the Steelers hands.
Cleveland did win a slugfest against the Steelers in Week 12, but that was a bad weather short week road game for Pittsburgh. Since this is a standard game at home and the Steelers know not to overlook this foe, it should result in a Pittsburgh win.
KC’s pick: Pittsburgh
Confidence level: 5
Jacksonville at Tennessee
The Titans are by no means a good team, but let’s keep their season in perspective. Tennessee upset Houston in Week 12 and went toe-to-toe with Minnesota and the Chargers in Weeks 10-11. That’s a solid track record against strong teams and shows that Tennessee can hold its own when things go well.
The Titans also have some potential impact players in Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine. Even Will Levis has been playing much better of late.
Jacksonville can make some of those same claims of staying competitive versus strong opponents, but the Jaguars offense is just terrible when Mac Jones is under center. Merge those trends with the game being in Tennessee and this is a Titans selection.
KC’s pick: Tennessee
Confidence level: 3
Seattle at Arizona
Seattle hired Mike Macdonald to be the head coach largely because of his defensive play calling prowess. That wasn’t on display for a while this year, but it has been in recent weeks. The Seahawks have allowed 44 points over the past three games and held each of those foes to under 300 net offensive yards.
The Cardinals can match that recent defensive prowess. Arizona has held five of its last six opponents to under 80 rushing yards. They’ve kept four of their last six foes to 16 or fewer points, and their dominance over Chicago in Week 9 and New York in Week 10 was so complete that it helped caused an offensive coordinator and general manager to get fired.
These defensive trends clashed two weeks ago, and the Cardinals prevailed due to a pick-six. Those are tough to count on recurring, but with this game in Arizona, the tiebreaker has to go to the Cardinals.
KC’s pick: Arizona
Confidence level: 1
Chicago at San Francisco
The 49ers offensive injuries are getting most of the attention paid to this team. That’s understandable given that Christian McCaffrey is one of those injured players (the Madden Curse strikes again), but don’t overlook the fact that San Francisco has allowed 73 points over the past two games. A big part of that was due to poor rush defense, as Buffalo ran Duo plays early and often on the way to 220 ground yards against the 49ers.
Chicago has posted strong rushing numbers at times, notching 179 rush yards against Green Bay in Week 11, but the reality is this offense has tallied fewer than 80 yards on the ground in four of the past five weeks. Chicago’s pass game is much improved, but that’s attacking a 49ers strength rather than a weakness. That’s not a recipe for success for the Bears, nor is a cross-country road game, so this once goes to the 49ers.
KC’s pick: San Francisco
Confidence level: 3
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City
Jim Harbaugh’s old school approach has been successful, but it’s also run into a problem. The injury to J.K. Dobbins has moved Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal up the depth chart. These two are very limited and that is why the Chargers tallied only 56 rushing yards in last week’s close win over Atlanta. Were it not for four Kirk Cousins interceptions, Los Angeles might not have overcome the ground game weakness.
The Chiefs didn’t show much on the ground last week, either, but Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt have displayed more big play ability this year than Edwards and Vidal. Patrick Mahomes is also getting the Kansas City aerial attack moving again.
The Chargers also have a potentially major injury issue, with Ladd McConkey potentially missing this game due to shoulder and knee injuries. Combine those with this game being in Kansas City and it should be another win for Andy Reid and company.
KC’s pick: Kansas City
Confidence level: 4
Cincinnati at Dallas
Just when it seems that the Bengals defense has hit rock bottom, things just get worse. That’s what happened last week when the Steelers notched 410 net passing yards, 520 net total yards, 28 first downs and 44 points against Cincinnati. To be fair, one of Pittsburgh’s touchdowns was a scoop and score by the Steelers defense, but even with that factored out, this is the worst defense in the NFL right now.
The key for Dallas is whether or not the Cowboys offense can take full advantage of that. This platoon has played better of late, but it also ranks near the bottom of the league in offensive points scored over the past month. The Dallas defense has shown an inability to slow down any offense, so the Bengals should score at least 30 in this one. Since the Cowboys offense isn’t likely to reach that same scoring level, this is a Cincinnati pick.
KC’s pick: Cincinnati
Confidence level: 4
KC’s 6+ confidence level picks, a group of selections that were 5-0 in Week 13, 56-18 this year and 321-125-2 since 2020, are available exclusively to Pickwatch Pro subscribers.
New York Jets at Miami
The Jets defense has not been the same since Robert Saleh was fired. New York has allowed 23 or more points in six of the seven games since that occurred and given up 85 points over the past three games. The Jets coverage metrics are subpar across the board (even Sauce Gardner has been off his game this year) and New York’s defense has generated only four takeaways since Saleh’s departure.
That doesn’t dovetail well with a matchup against a Miami offense that is starting to fire on all cylinders. Mike McDaniel has pretty much abandoned the run game because of the Dolphins aerial success that has led to 644 net passing yards over the past two contests. Miami has also held three of their last four foes to under 20 points. Combine these factors with home field and this one is a Miami selection.
KC’s pick: Miami
Confidence level: 6
Carolina at Philadelphia
Dave Canales has done a heckuva job with the Panthers this season. Carolina could have thrown in the towel after benching Bryce Young, but once Young had to return to the lineup, Canales worked with him and helped get Young to nearly produce wins versus Kansas City and Tampa Bay, two division leading teams.
That will be worth remembering after this week. The Eagles can obliterate teams on the ground, and Carolina has allowed 401 rushing yards over the past two weeks. Philadelphia also has personnel advantages everywhere else on the field, has home field and needs a win to stay in the fight for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. That’s a recipe for a huge Eagles victory.
KC’s pick: Philadelphia
Confidence level: 9
Buffalo at Los Angeles Rams
Josh Allen is now the prohibitive favorite to win the NFL MVP award. There are many reasons for this, including his scoring touchdowns in three ways in last week’s impressive win in the snow against San Francisco, but the standout item may be Allen leading Buffalo to score 30+ points in six straight games. The Bills defense has held three of those opponents to 10 points, so this team is playing at peak level on both sides of the ball.
The Rams got their ground game going last week with a season-high 156 rushing yards. Los Angeles obviously also has plenty of aerial talent, but those skills have resulted in the Rams scoring 30+ points only once this year. The Los Angeles rush defense is also a huge issue, having allowed 582 yards over the past three games. None of these trends favor the Rams, so this one should result in a Buffalo victory.
KC’s pick: Buffalo
Confidence level: 6
Las Vegas at Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers operate best when they can go full throttle on offense. That has been the case the past two weeks, as Tampa Bay racked up 896 offensive yards (including 393 rushing yards) in victories over the Giants and Panthers.
The Raiders defense held up well against the Chiefs on Black Friday, but that had the look of Kansas City not playing up to its talent level in an early week contest. The true level of the Las Vegas defense showed up in the previous three games when the Raiders allowed 104 points against three high-powered offenses (Cincinnati, Miami and Denver).
The Raiders certainly don’t have the caliber of offense to keep up if the game goes shootout mode, so this one lands in the Tampa Bay column.
KC’s pick: Tampa Bay
Confidence level: 7